Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game

Despite going up against a veteran Memphis Grizzlies squad, the Utah Jazz should be able to come out with a win in tonight’s contest.

The Utah Jazz should be returning home with quite a bit of confidence and some swagger in their step. After all, they did just go 4-1 on a tough five-game road trip to elevate their record to 7-4 on the year.

While the sole loss was a toughie, it was definitely a game the Jazz would have been in good shape in had they been at full strength. And more importantly, each of the four wins was very much convincing.

The Jazz held off a fourth quarter comeback from the Knicks, trampled the Sixers and Heat and had a lockdown defensive fourth quarter against the Magic in which Orlando mustered only a meager ten points.

In other words, Utah has to be feeling good about where they’re at so far. Given all the excuses they could have used to come out of the gates slow – injuries, new teammates, a tough schedule – they’ve responded brilliantly and have to be happy with where they currently sit in the Western Conference standings.

And they’ll only be looking to improve that as they prepare to tip off against the Memphis Grizzlies in tonight’s contest.

Memphis comes into the game with a 4-5 record and has yet to post a W against a team with a winning record. The Jazz should also feel pretty good about their chances given that they won the season series against the Grizzlies last season, winning two of three contests.

Nevertheless, this is a team that boasts a slew of savvy veterans such as Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and newcomer Chandler Parsons. Parsons has been dealing with a lingering knee injury and has only appeared in three games for the Grizzlies, but once he gets going he can be hard to stop.

So though the Jazz have more than enough talent to come out on top against the Grizzlies, they’ll have to deal with that and several other factors that if left unchecked could lead to a Memphis victory.

Key Match-up – Rudy Gobert and Marc Gasol

To be honest, the match-up I’d most look forward to seeing would be George Hill and Mike Conley as both played their high school ball in Indianapolis and play a similar brand of basketball. Both have long been deemed as underrated point guards and seeing their skill sets paired against one another would be an absolute treat.

However, with Hill still questionable for tonight’s contest, I thought I’d go with the next most important match-up of Rudy Gobert and Marc Gasol.

Gasol has been a solid and steady player throughout his career and that has continued so far this season. He’s currently the Grizzlies’ second leading scorer (trailing only Mike Conley) at 18.1 points per game. However, his efficiency is definitely down this season as he is shooting just 40.7 percent from the field.

That is largely due to the fact that Gasol has suddenly added the three-point shot to his offensive arsenal. Despite the fact that he has never averaged higher than just 0.2 three-point attempts per game in a single season throughout his career, Gasol finds himself this year now among the Grizzlies deep ball threats.

He hasn’t been spectacular from deep but he is taking 3.6 attempts per game and converting at a respectable (especially for a big man) 34.5 percent.

Gasol’s superb mid-range game and his elite defense already would have made him a tough match-up for Rudy Gobert, but now throw in the fact that Gasol has to be checked beyond the arc and things just got that much more difficult.

To further complicate the issue, Derrick Favors is questionable for tonight’s contest after leaving the game against the Heat with knee soreness. While Utah will need a lot out of Rudy regardless, if Favors isn’t in the game the pressure becomes even more greatly heightened for the Stifle Tower.

Gobert has been playing well of late as he has posted two consecutive double-double games. The Jazz will need a similar performance out of him as well as a tight defensive showing if he is to slow Gasol and help Utah overcome an experienced Grizzlies team.

Key Stat – Rebounds

It is quite surprising to me that a team like the Grizzlies that has built a reputation of excelling at doing the dirty work and logging wins by simply out-grinding their opponents is currently one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.

Particularly with the likes of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph on the squad, one wouldn’t naturally pin the Grizzlies as the third-worst rebounding team in the NBA. Nevertheless, that is where they currently stand.

Yet the Jazz are in a similar spot given that while they boast some elite rebounders, their totals aren’t all that incredible as they come in at just 24th in the league in rebounding at 42.3 per game, just one more than Memphis’ per-game average.

However, despite the low ranking in total rebounds, Utah does enjoy a +1.8 rebound differential, good for the 11th best differential in the league. This goes to show that while the Jazz may not be pulling down a ton of total rebounds, they’re limiting their opponents to even less.

With the key to a win over Memphis being so focused on executing in the little things, finding a way to control the boards against a team with high-rebound potential but that hasn’t been able to do so consistently will help provide a valuable edge for the Jazz.

Key Performer – Gordon Hayward

With Tony Allen questionable for tonight’s game due to a groin injury and with Parsons being a less than standout defender even when he is at 100 percent, the Grizzlies really have no one who can successfully match up with Gordon Hayward defensively at his position.

As such, I expect a huge game out of Utah’s budding star.

After missing the first six games of the season due to injury, Hayward has been absolutely phenomenal as he is logging a team high and career high 24.4 points and 7.6 rebounds to go along with 4.2 assists and a field goal percentage of 45.6.

The only thing missing has been Hayward’s three-point shot as he’s gotten off to a slow 26.7 percent start from deep. As he continues his way back into game shape and grows more comfortable following his injury, I expect this percentage to skyrocket.

And given that Hayward has scored 20 points or more in each of his five games this year, combined with the fact that the Grizzlies are short on capable wing defenders to contain him, all signs indicate that Gordon could be in for a hay day in tonight’s contest.

If the likes of George Hill and Derrick Favors are out for the game, the Jazz will surely need it. Hayward has come up big in each of his appearances so far this season and I expect him to do so again in tonight’s home contest against the Grizzlies.

Prediction – Jazz 88, Grizzlies 81

Without knowing yet where we stand with Hill or Favors, I’m going to go ahead and just stick with my prediction from last night’s Week Four Preview and slot the Jazz at a 88-81 victory.

Sometimes there can be a bit of a letdown when a team finally plays at home after a long road trip, but the Jazz have looked focused and disciplined, two traits they’ll definitely need against a consistent Memphis team.

There’s almost no question that this will be a low-scoring, smashmouth type of game as both teams will try to run a controlled tempo and wear the other down. Both squads have the personnel to do so, but I believe the Jazz are better equipped with more depth and better three-point shooting (35.9 percent compared to 31.6 percent) to get the job done.

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Nevertheless, the Jazz will have to be careful as this is an experienced Memphis team. The Grizzlies haven’t been at the top of their game this season, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them turn that around at any time.

But with the way the Jazz have been playing, it’s likely that Memphis’ turnaround will have to wait at least one more game as a rising Utah squad seems poised and ready to claim a victory.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com and ESPN.com