The Utah Jazz are in a good position to snare the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. That's good for them because Cooper Flagg has been deemed a can't-miss prospect, and even if they miss out on him, multiple guys behind him could drastically change the franchise's fortunes.
It will be very exciting if and when the Jazz find out where they place in the draft order because at the very least, they're expected to get somebody good. If they are able to get their hands on Flagg, it would put many minds at ease.
However, a trend we're seeing with the history of some of the NBA's recent first-round picks would indicate that getting the No. 1 pick doesn't automatically mean it all works out in the end. That shouldn't sway a team like the Jazz not to tank, but it is something they should keep in mind.
Getting the No. 1 pick is among the easiest ways for a team to build the foundation of a perennial playoff contender for years to come. The best evidence is looking at who has been drafted as the No. 1 for the last few years.
2023: Victor Wembanyama
2022: Paolo Banchero
2021: Cade Cunningham
2020: Anthony Edwards
But going back further, some No. 1 picks in recent memory have also been disasters, even if they haven't necessarily been busts.
Ben Simmons & Deandre Ayton have become cautionary tales
Simmons and Ayton were the No. 1 picks of their respective drafts in 2016 and 2018. Simmons had more hype than Ayton, but Ayton still came with high expectations. Both started on the right track, but that's a far cry from where they are now.
Simmons has become a shell of his former self. He has not played at an All-Star level in four years, and it's fair to believe that he will never return to that level. Injuries have gotten in the way, but even if they hadn't, Simmons' issues stemmed from his inability to improve his game. He never developed his jumper, and he was afraid of the moment, which are two red flags for a supposed franchise player.
But at least Simmons has an excuse. Back injuries prematurely killed his prime. What's Ayton's? He didn't suffer any debilitating injuries. He had a bad falling out with Phoenix, but there's no reason why he should be as bad as he is in Portland.
Ayton was one of the best players on a team that made the NBA Finals, but now he has one of the worst contracts in the NBA. It's like he stopped caring once he got paid. His fall from grace hasn't been as swift as Simmons, but arguably more stupefying.
The irony is that their original teams didn't have to deal with their regressions because they traded them before their productions went down the drain. Still, this is the risk with No. 1 picks. Even if they may not be Kwame Brown or Michael Olowokandi, there's no sure sign that they will stay the players they are or turn into the players their teams hoped they would be.
It doesn't stop there.
The Pelicans' experience with No. 1 picks has been troublesome
New Orleans has had two of the most hyped-up prospects of the twenty-first century come their way with Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson. There has been no denying how talented those two are, and yet, it's barely translated into anything of substance in The Big Easy.
The Pelicans advanced in the playoffs exactly one time with Davis because he was injury-prone and so were some of his teammates. Then he got tired of being in mediocrity, so he asked out.
It's been worse with Zion. The Pelicans have made the playoffs a few times, but he wasn't available for them in the postseason. He's struggled with weight issues, and this season, they've been one of the worst teams in the league with a lot of it thanks to Zion not being able to play.
Both Davis and Zion are evidence that even when drafting a monumental prospect, that may not always lead to greener pastures.
Luckily, Danny Ainge is masterful at drafting
With all of these concerns, note that Danny Ainge is excellent at what he does. The reigning champion Boston Celtics aren't where they are without Ainge's efforts, and that's not the first title team he helped assemble.
But it's more than that though. Ainge has an eye for talent, dating back to the Deron Williams days. In 2007, the Celtics were one of the worst teams in the NBA, and two major prospects were coming out - Greg Oden and Kevin Durant.
Though Oden was the slated No. 1 pick, Ainge wanted Durant, believing he was the next big thing in the NBA. He was right, but the Celtics never got the chance to draft him since the lottery didn't go their way.
No matter where the Jazz pick, they should be comfortable with who Ainge selects because he's proven when he has the chance to draft a high lottery pick, he gets the right guy. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown serve as pretty good evidence of that.
Note that this has absolutely nothing to do with Flagg's capabilities, nor does it have anything to do with the top-notch prospects coming out with him. The overarching point here is that the Jazz should feel good about themselves if they get the No. 1 pick in the draft, but they should know that even the most beautiful of roses could have the most painful thorns.