The Utah Jazz were screwed over. That's how you could sum up lottery night. The current lottery system hurts not only the Jazz but also Washington and Charlotte. All three teams had top odds to land the number one overall pick, and none of them received even a top-three pick, and no chance to select potentially the best prospect in the draft since LeBron James.
To rub dirt in it, the Dallas Mavericks, fresh off making arguably the WORST trade in NBA history, a play-in appearance, and owners of a less than 1.5% chance of landing the top pick, were handed the previously mentioned prospect on a silver platter, and NBA fans were forced to look on in shock. "Rigged" and "Frozen Envelope" were thrown around on the internet very quickly and continue circulating.
Yes, you read that right, just over a one-thousandth percent chance of occurring as it did. Unbelievable. And guess what, it happened last year too. The Atlanta Hawks are a perennial play-in team, then look at that, a number one overall pick! Meanwhile, Detroit once again settled for the fifth overall pick for the second year in a row, after combining for 31 wins over those two years.
The lottery is set up to discourage tanking—thank again, Philly!—and get teams to not try too hard to lose all their games. However, this system only keeps teams in a cycle of mediocrity and makes it difficult for small market and bottom teams to break into relevancy.
The frustration from Jazz fans is palpable, and for good reason. So, how can the lottery be fixed? It may be easier than one would think.
Here's the Solution
In 2019, the NBA implemented lottery odds changes that flattened the odds to discourage tanking. This was the wrong approach to the lottery and anti-tanking measures.
Consider this idea proposed by Andrew Fenichel:
In his proposed lottery change, there are two separate lotteries: a top-five lottery and an everyone else lottery. Teams get two years in the top-five lottery, and if they still hold a bottom-five record, they are kicked to the end of the second lottery. This is taking a page from the MLB draft, where after teams pick in the top six for three consecutive years, the highest they can pick the next year is 10.
This solves so many issues at once. Teams are allowed to reset their franchises and are granted a two-year window to try to acquire top prospects, but are also encouraged to get back into contention quickly. Once again, looking at you, 76ers.
This also completely removes the chances that a play-in team gets the best player in the draft. Do you hear how absurd that sentence is? How is this even a possibility?
Guidelines must be in place to prevent teams from embracing "The Process" and being a bottom-dweller for so long that it makes them a bad product for the NBA. But tanking is a healthy part of the NBA. Having five or so teams fighting for the first lottery is an intriguing storyline for a season, especially if fans embrace the race to the bottom and the search for their next franchise cornerstone.
Instead, the big market teams win again. LA's future gets secured, and Dallas isn't punished whatsoever for it in the end. One could argue that Cooper Flagg has a higher ceiling than Luka Doncic, so maybe Nico Harrison got the last laugh after all.
The lottery needs to be assessed, changes are needed, and time will only tell if the NBA will listen or not.