While the Utah Jazz will inevitably lose a game in the 2021-22 NBA season, they have not appeared ready to do so yet. The most recent victim of the Jazzmen’s two-way excellent were the Denver Nuggets, who suffered a 122-110 defeat on Tuesday night. With that victory, the Jazz advanced their undefeated record to 3-0. The Jazz don’t stand alone among the Association’s ranks of undefeated teams. The Golden State Warriors and Chicago Bulls are both without losses as it currently stands. Eventually, every one of these teams will lose. The questions are, which will lose first, and which will lose most?
In our attempt to answer that question, we looked at Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating and overall Net Rating thus far. We didn’t strictly rely on this data, however. We also took into consideration what preseason expectations for each of these teams generally were based on roster construction and 2020-21 results. Finally, we looked at the relative strengths of the schedules that have kept each of these clubs undefeated to-date.
In other words, there is no exact science driving these rankings, just as there is no exact science for predicting outcomes in the NBA. A fact which will do absolutely nothing to stop us from making an educated guess as to how the NBA’s three remaining undefeated teams stack up against each other.
Here is your educated guess.
Utah Jazz vs Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls went all-in at last year’s trade deadline, acquiring All-Star center Nikola Vucevic at the cost of Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr. and two first-round picks. The move signified a strong urge to restore a formerly dynastic franchise to glory. This past offseason, they doubled down on those desires by acquiring Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan.
The consensus on this club came swiftly. Observers widely expected them to become one of the league’s best offensive teams, and one of its worst on the defensive end. Those assumptions made sense. Last season, Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) pegged all 3 of Vucevic (-1.5), DeRozan (-3.7) and Zach Lavine (-3.5) as distinct liabilities on the defensive end.
Assumptions are notoriously unreliable.
The Bulls have posted their 4-0 record thus far on the strength of their defensive prowess. Their middling 109.1 Offensive Rating ranks 12th in the NBA, whereas their Defensive Rating of 99.1 places them 4th overall. There are two explanations for this unexpected development, and one is a lot more charitable than the other.
The first is that the collective stopping power of Lonzo Ball, Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso is enough to offset the defensive struggles of the previously named big 3. Early season metrics are too unreliable to lend credence to, but last season, that triumvirate posted DBPM scores of -0.7, 0.0 and 2.3 respectively. Lonzo’s negative score is surprising, but it is worth noting that team success can factor into DBPM, and that his Pelicans ranked 23rd in Defensive Rating last season.
Any eye test will confirm that Zo, like his two teammates, is a stout defender. However, there is a less friendly, and potentially more viable explanation for the success of this Chicago Bulls team to-date. They’ve had a much easier schedule than either the Utah Jazz or the Golden State Warriors.
This Bulls team has beaten the Detroit Pistons twice, and the struggling Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Pelicans once each. In the light of context, their undefeated record feels substantially less impressive. This supposedly elite scoring team doesn’t have their offense humming yet, and their top-5 Defensive Rating looks a lot less impressive knowing that lottery-bound teams have struggled to score against them.
Frankly, the Detroit Pistons without franchise player Cade Cunningham are likely to struggle to score against anyone. That might be equally true for a Pelicans team without Zion Williamson and a Raptors team missing Pascal Siakam.
All of which is not to say that Chicago Bulls fans should not be celebrating their 4-0 start. This team still has plenty of time to find its offensive rhythm and start winning games in the manner it was expected to. If they do, they’ll be overjoyed to have won their first 4 games before that happened.
Given the manner in which they’ve won so far, however, it’s impossible to rank them ahead of the Utah Jazz or the Golden State Warriors.
Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors
The gap between the Chicago Bulls and both the Golden State Warriors and the Utah Jazz feels like a wide one. Honestly, we took almost no time to make a decision on where to rank the Bulls in this article. The gap between the Warriors and the Jazz, on the other hand, feels razor thin.
The Golden State Warriors roster the best player between these two teams in Steph Curry. With averages of 29.0 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists per contest, he remains an offense-onto-himself. There are superstars, and then there are ever-exploding supernovas, and Curry falls into the latter category.
The Warriors still fall short of the Utah Jazz as it stands. That’s not a biased position: it’s justified by each club’s net rating. The Jazz rank one spot ahead of the Golden State Warriors in Offensive Rating: their 114.2 is fourth in the league, and the Warriors’ 112.9 is fifth. The Jazz boast a much larger advantage in Defensive Rating: their 99.9 is third in the NBA, where the Warriors’ 105.7 is 15th. In terms of Net Rating, the Utah Jazz boast the second-best in the Association at 14.3. The Warriors land 6th in that category at 7.2.
There are explanatory factors to bolster that data, and the most substantial one is the Warriors’ somewhat unorthodox roster construction. They host an odd mixture of veterans and youth. The 22-year-old Jordan Poole is receiving the fourth-most minutes on their team (27.8), and for all of his talent, he’s struggling. He’s shooting 40.3% from the field, and an ugly 24.1% from three-point range.
Alternatively, 38-year-old Andre Iguodala is making use of his return for San Francisco, ranking sixth on the team at 22.0 minutes per contest. It’s hard to feel confident in the veteran’s ability to justify his usage when he hasn’t posted a positive Box Plus/Minus (BPM) since 2017-18. On the other hand, lottery pick Jonathan Kuminga has yet to make his NBA debut, but given the rawness of the high-upside prospect, Coach Kerr may find himself sticking with the devil he knows in Iguodala.
Two factors could push this Warriors team ahead of the Utah Jazz. The first is the impending return of Klay Thompson. He’s been shelved with an injury for two years. It’s hard to know what to anticipate from the former All-Star. If he’s even 80% of his former self, this team could launch into very serious NBA title contention. On the other hand, if his mobility is significantly compromised, his return could be closer to a neutral, if not entirely negative factor for the Warriors.
The second is the potential for the Warriors to author a blockbuster trade. The rumor mill has rampantly anticipated this team to consolidate one or more of James Wiseman and their various prospects into an available NBA superstar since Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody were still upcoming draftees. If Bradley Beal, Domantas Sabonis, Pascal Siakam, Christian Wood or someone less expected becomes available by this year’s deadline, this Warriors team could end up looking even stronger.
For the time being, they look just a shade weaker than the also-undefeated Utah Jazz.
Utah Jazz
In the process of assessing why the Golden State Warriors aren’t on the same level as the Utah Jazz, we already made the inverse argument that the Jazz are superior to the Warriors. The proof is in the pudding, or in this case, the net ratings.
A perusal of each team’s roster vindicates the statistics. Again, we’ve already detailed how the Warriors will eventually be forced to decide between leaning heavily on teenagers, or brokering a significant trade. The Jazz face no such dilemma. They’re a veteran heavy outfit who are bringing back their 7 top scorers from a 2020-21 season wherein they finished with the best record in the NBA.
Curry may be the best player between these two clubs, but the Utah Jazz are a more cohesive unit. They have fewer unknown variables: they’re not relying on a Klay Thompson to return to his normal productivity, or a James Wiseman to take a tremendous sophomore leap. They’re built on the backs of known entities, and therefore, they’re the safer bet to have the best record of the 3 remaining undefeated teams when the season draws to a close.
Which is not akin to saying the Jazz are the best team in the league. The Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers are both more talented: time will only tell if they can resolve their substantial internal issues before the season’s end. The Milwaukee Bucks are probably coasting as the incumbent champions. The Miami Heat are absolutely dangerous, and the fact that they’ve lost a game compared to the 3 teams in this article is meaningless at this early stage in the season.
Luckily, this article was never about the best team in the NBA. It was about the best among the teams that remain undefeated. The Chicago Bulls have a lot left to prove before they’re worthy of consideration among teams like the Golden State Warriors and the Utah Jazz, and we’ll take Salt Lake City’s finest over the Warriors in a pinch as well.