Utah Jazz fans might want to keep an eye towards the San Francisco area throughout the 2021-22 season. The Golden State Warriors have dangerous potential to emerge as an unexpected rival for their squad.
The recently-dynastic Warriors have found themselves in an interesting position in recent years. Having lost Kevin Durant to free agency and Klay Thompson to a devastating injury, the Dubs have one of the most talented rosters to have the privilege of selecting in the NBA Draft Lottery in consecutive seasons in recent memory. As a result, they’ll be fielding a talented ensemble of prospects and veterans next season.
It makes them a difficult team to anticipate. Will Jonathan Kuminga be ready to contribute to a championship pursuit during his maiden voyage in the league? How about Moses Moody? Can James Wiseman make significant strides from his disappointing rookie campaign, or will the Warriors need another answer at the starting 5 spot?
Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz figure to feature one of the most veteran-heavy squads in the entire Association. Their biggest offseason acquisitions included veterans Rudy Gay and Hassan Whiteside, as well as Eric Paschall (who came, of course, directly from Golden State). There are young players on this Jazz squad: they just don’t project as being as significant members of their rotation as the prospects on the Warriors.
These teams are in very similar positions. They’ll both have their sights set on the Larry O’Brien trophy this season. They actually have very similar championship chances according to oddsmakers. However, while they may share a common goal, they’ll be taking drastically different approaches to achieve it.
Here, we’ll be looking at each team’s floor-spacing, depth and star power in an attempt to make a thorough comparison of each team heading into the 2021-22 season.
Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors: Floor Spacing
Last season, the Utah Jazz were arguably the best three-point shooting team in the NBA. They fired a historic 43 attempts per contest, connecting on 38.9% of those attempts. The former figure didn’t just lead the league; it led the league’s history. Meanwhile, the latter figure landed the Jazzman third in the NBA. Their overall combination of volume and accuracy was the envy of the entire Association.
Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors were also a solid three-point shooting team, albeit less lethal than the Jazz. They attempted the fourth most threes per contest in the league at 38.7, downing a seventh-best 37.6% of them. That’s a successful three-point shooting season, even if it’s not a successful enough one to contend with the Utah Jazz in a three-point shootout. However, it’s the impending return of Klay Thompson that makes this a subject worth discussing.
Presumably, he’ll fill in for the recently departed Kelly Oubre Jr. in the Warrior’s starting group. Oubre just authored a season where he shot 31.6% on his 5.2 three-point attempts per game. Regardless of which version of Klay Thompson returns from a right Achilles injury this season, it’s safe to say he’ll shoot the 3 with better efficiency than that.
In fact, Thompson’s worst three-point shooting season came in his sophomore, where he shot 40.1% on 6.4 attempts per contest. That’s a solid career three-point shooting season for most NBA players. His return will undeniably raise the Warrior’s three-point shooting back to its former alert status red level.
Still, it’s hard to be comfortably sure it’ll raise it to the same level as the Utah Jazz. After all, they just completed one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NBA history. Thompson may not be his former self, and even if he is, he may not even see the floor until early 2022.
In a best case scenario for the Warriors, Klay returns to his previous form, and the team returns to its prior status as the best shooting team in the National Basketball Association. Since we can’t be certain of that outcome, we can’t award the Warriors a clear advantage over the Utah Jazz here. With that said, it feels too likely to entirely discredit either.
Verdict: Tie
Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors: Depth
As mentioned, the Golden State Warriors enter the 2021-22 season with a somewhat unorthodox depth chart. They’re talented, but they’re also flawed.
Klay Thompson’s return is likely to push 2021-22 breakout player Jordan Poole into a sixth man role that he’s well-equipped for. The 21-year-old combo guard scored a reasonably efficient 22.3 points per 36 minutes last season. With an abundance of shot-creation ability (and little else), Poole fits the sixth man archetype perfectly. It’s the rest of the Warriors’ reserves that pale in comparison to those on the Utah Jazz.
Jonathan Kuminga has the opportunity to be a star in this league someday. That day probably won’t come in 2021-22. The raw forward shot a meager 38.7% from the field for the G-League Ignite last season, showcasing questionable shot selection and overall decision making.
Meanwhile, the Warriors will choose between sophomore James Wiseman and franchise mainstay Kevon Looney as their starting center, which is something of a Sophie’s choice. Last season, the Dubs were plainly awful with Wiseman in the middle His -16.9 efficiency differential placed him the league’s 1st percentile, per CleaningtheGlass.
That leaves Looney looking like the obvious choice, but it’s not exactly an inspired one either. He’s solid, but in all likelihood, he’d be a third-string center on the Utah Jazz, behind Rudy Gobert and Hassan Whiteside.
Which bring us to our central point: the Utah Jazz are much deeper than the Golden State Warriors. In contrast to a club relying on underdeveloped prospects to fill out their rotation, the Jazz roster not only the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, but the runner up as well. Newcomers Gay, Whiteside and Paschall round out a 10-man rotation of NBA players who could at least merit starter consideration on teams across the league.
Even Utah Jazz rookie Jared Butler, while lacking his draft classmate Kuminga’s ceiling, looks NBA ready. It may not be clear that the Utah Jazz will be a better club than the Golden State Warriors heading into the 2021-22 season, but there’s no denying they’ll be a considerably deeper one.
Verdict: Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors: Star Power
While the Utah Jazz may enjoy an advantage over the Golden State Warriors in depth, the Warriors do boast the single best player in the matchup in Stephen Curry.
The league’s first and only unanimous MVP revolutionized basketball. Any of our readers over 30 need only to go play a game of pickup with some kids under 20 to tangibly feel the difference Curry single handedly made in changing the game. Last season, he casually led the NBA in scoring with 32.0 points per contest.
It’s difficult to identify any distinct second-best player in this matchup. If we go by Win Shares (WS) in their last active season, the order is Rudy Gobert (11.3), Donovan Mitchell (6.2), and then Klay Thompson (5.3). However, it’s worth noting that these 3 special NBA talents play such drastically different roles that they hardly merit comparison.
Gobert, of course, is the lifeblood of a strong Utah Jazz defense, but his potential to get played off the floor in specific matchups is well-documented. The Warriors may be especially well-equipped to do exactly that, as Draymond Green is effectively the archetype for the small-ball center. If lineups featuring him in that role force Quin Snyder to deploy Rudy Gay at the 5 for long stretches of a hypothetical playoff series, even the most stalwart analytics-booster won’t be able to claim that Gobert’s Win Shares render him a better player than Mitchell or Thompson.
Meanwhile, Mitchell is the lifeblood of a strong Utah Jazz offense. Accordingly, his 6.2 WS are higher than Thompson’s 5.3. Still, Thompson’s value to the Golden State Warriors may be difficult to measure with analytics. He’s not as essential to their offense as Mitchell is to Utah’, or to their defense as Gobert is to the same, but he’s the best two-way player in the grouping.
Regardless of how one chooses to rank Mitchell, Gobert and Thompson, the main point that emerges is that the Warriors have the best player in this series, and another player with a case as the second-best. That’s enough to award the Warriors points in this facet of their matchup with the Utah Jazz.
Verdict: Golden State Warriors
It seems that in a head-to-head comparison, the Utah Jazz and the Golden State Warriors come to a stalemate when assessing them in terms of floor-spacing, depth and star power. All we can say with certainty is that fans of both franchises should tune in whenever the two squads square off in 2021-22.