The Utah Jazz had an understated, yet busy 2021 NBA offseason. Between the acquisitions of Rudy Gay, Hassan Whiteside and Eric Paschall, General Manager Justin Zanik added a platoon of quality NBA rotation players. Out of all those additions, Eric Paschall may be the most interesting.
Unlike longtime NBA veterans Gay and Whiteside, Paschall’s career arc is still to be determined. At 24, Paschall is about to enter his third NBA season. To date, he’s proven a solid offensive contributor with some defensive limitations on a contending Golden State Warriors team.
Offensively, Paschall actually enjoyed a larger slice of the Warriors’ offensive pie in his rookie season, sporting an impressive average of 14.0 points per game in 2019-20. That number slipped to 9.5 points per game last season, but Utah Jazz fans need not fret, as Paschall’s minutes per game also lowered substantially, from 27.6 to 17.4 minutes per contest. Per 36 minutes, his scoring actually improved, taking a leap from 18.2 points to 19.7 points per 36 minutes.
Certainly, those numbers are indicative of a player with a wealth of offensive talent. In all likelihood, the dismal 117 Defensive Rating he posted in his rookie season forced Warriors coach Steve Kerr to claw back some of Paschall’s minutes in his sophomore year, where that number actually improved to 113. If Paschall can continue to trend in a positive direction by that metric, his ceiling as a member of the Utah Jazz raises considerably.
That’s what makes Paschall the Jazz’s most interesting acquisition: we don’t know what kind of longterm NBA contributor he’ll be yet. Here are three players from NBA history that he could turn to for inspiration.
Utah Jazz forward Eric Paschall historical comparison #1: Rodney Rogers
First of all, we should establish a baseline: these are ideal comparisons for Eric Paschall. Utah Jazz fans will be more-than-satisfied if Paschall’s career develops in the fashion of Rodney Rogers’.
In fact, Paschall could take direct inspiration from Rogers. Selected with the 9th overall pick in the 1993 NBA Draft, Rogers was actually a somewhat subpar defender himself in his early years, at least according to Defensive Rating. He posted a fine mark of 103 in his rookie season, dropped to 107 in his sophomore campaign, and then had a particularly unimpressive figure of 111 in his third season (not far off of Paschall’s 113 from 2020-21).
In 1999-00, Rogers’ age 28 season, something clicked on the defensive end; and by clicked, we mean erupted. His 99 Defensive Rating that year qualifies as elite, and Rogers would go onto post several sub-100 Defensive Ratings over the remainder of his NBA career, including an incredible 96 mark in 2003-04 for the New Jersey Nets.
Such a remarkable defensive turnaround is rare in the NBA, but Rogers’ career proves that it is a possibility. Meanwhile, he carved out a solid niche as an auxiliary offensive piece, averaging a career high 15.1 points per game for the Los Angeles Clippers in 1997-98. He was also ahead-of-his-time as a stretch 4, with a career 34.7% conversion rate on 2.3 three-point attempts per game.
Paschall may have more natural offensive talent than Rogers ever did, but if he hopes to become a long-term contributor for the Utah Jazz, a similar defensive turnaround would go a long way towards serving that end. Physically, the two forwards share a similar profile, as Rogers was a 6’7, 235 pound combo forward (who would inevitably see time as a small ball 5 in 2021) where Paschall stands 6’6 at 255 pounds.
In fact, shedding a few pounds may give Paschall the mobility he needs to improve his defensive performance. If he prefers his current playing weight, that may be fine as well: Utah Jazz fans should pay more attention to the development of his Defensive Rating.
With any luck, it’ll follow the same trajectory as Rodney Rogers’.
Utah Jazz forward Eric Paschall historical comparison #2: Donyell Marshall
Older Utah Jazz fans will certainly be familiar with this historical comparison, and depending on their feelings towards the man called Big Homie, they may even embrace it.
Rodney Rogers may have been ahead of his time as a stretch 4, but Marshall was several paces ahead of even Rogers. For example, in 2004-05, Marshall attempted 5.6 three-pointers per game as a member of the Toronto Raptors, a number practically unheard of for a power forward at that time.
His three-point accuracy fluctuated wildly throughout his career. He hit 27% of his 4.3 attempts per night with the Golden State Warriors in 1994-95, and 40.3% of his 4.0 attempts per night in a 2003-04 season split between the Chicago Bulls and the Raptors. Similarly, his Defensive Ratings were (as the Hot Hot Heat would say) consistently inconsistent, ranging from 96 to 113 throughout his career without any clear, linear development in either direction.
So, what could Utah Jazz forward Eric Paschall glean from such an inconsistent career performance? Well, Marshall’s ability to get buckets never wavered. That’s what allowed him a solid 15-year NBA career.
Marshall, like Paschall, was a three-level scorer, able to heat up from deep, work the midrange or get baskets with an array of crafty moves on the low block. Where Rogers and his steady development on the defensive end may represent an ideal course for Paschall’s career, Marshall’s consistency as a threat to score the basketball ought to represent a realistic one.
All told, the stretch 4 finished his career with averages of 11.2 points and 6.7. rebounds per game and a 35.0% three-point conversion rate. His high water marks in each of those categories were 15.4, 10.0 and 40.3%.
If he stays in Salt Lake City, the Utah Jazz would have to take that for the remainder of Paschall’s career as well.
Utah Jazz forward historical comparison #1: Antoine Walker
So far, we’ve covered a historical comparison for Paschall in the event that he steadily improves his defense, and a comparison if he intermittently progresses and regresses on the less glamorous end of the floor. Here’s a peek at what his career could look like if he never changes on the defensive end, but absolutely maximizes his offensive capabilities.
Unlike the other players covered in this article, Antoine Walker was a star. His best season came in 2000-01, when he posted averages of 23.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 5.5 assists per contest. That statistical output actually came during Walker’s age-24 season, the same age as Paschall today. However, the vast discrepancy in their roles is partly accounted for by the fact that Walker was drafted to a woeful Celtics squad with the 6th overall pick in the 1996 NBA Draft, whereas Paschall has spent his first two seasons in the league with a competitive Golden State Warriors club.
Walker’s Defensive Rating generally fluctuated between passable and poor, but it’s worth noting that the numbers may be skewed by virtue of the defensive mindedness of those Celtics teams. His reputation on that end was poor, and deservingly so. Meanwhile, Walker was often criticized for his shot selection, but in hindsight, he too was an ahead-of-his-time stretch big. He shot an absolutely-unheard-of 8.1 attempts per game for the Cs in 2001-02.
That’s a high three-point volume even for a modern 4, but Walker’s 34.4% accuracy on those attempts would make them somewhat justifiable according to modern offensive philosophies. On the other hand, Utah Jazz forward Eric Paschall may, in reality, never garner a large enough offensive role to attempt 8 three-pointers every night. Antoine Walker was gifted: former Warrior or not, Paschall will have some substantial work to do to reach his level.
Eric Paschall’s career is still in its infancy stages, and it’s difficult to conclude what kind of NBA player he’ll be on a consistent basis. However, if his career resembles any of the 3 players mentioned in this article, it will be to the delight of Utah Jazz fans.