The Utah Jazz pulled off a rare feat in the 2021 NBA draft: they traded out of the first round, and they landed first round talent anyway.
Fresh off a national championship with Baylor, Jared Butler was comfortably projected to be selected in the first round of the draft, with some publications predicting as high as a late lottery selection for the young floor general. Instead, Butler was this year’s casualty of the draft’s unpredictable nature, and he found himself slipping to the 40th overall pick, falling into the hands of the Utah Jazz.
Some speculate that teams were apprehensive about Butler due to his diagnosed heart condition. Their loss. Butler is cleared to play, fills an immediate need for the Jazz, and has the potential to be the steal of the 2021 NBA Draft.
Here is a floor, median and ceiling comparison for Jared Butler heading into the 2021-22 NBA season.
Utah Jazz rookie Jared Butler floor comparison: Matthew Dellavedova
Anyone thinking we’re selling the recent Baylor export short with this floor comparison need ask themselves two questions. First: do they understand the concept of a floor comparison? Second: how closely did they watch the Cleveland Cavaliers over the 2015-16 season?
The Utah Jazz will be satisfied if Jared Butler can match that version of Dellavedova’s production. The most logical starting point is his three-point shooting, as Delly shot 41% on 3.1 attempts per game that season. For those who remember the Australian point guard’s career year well, however, the lasting impression is probably of his defensive efforts.
Dellavedova, like Jared Butler, is a player with significant physical limitations. At 6’3 and 200 pounds, he lacks the burst, strength or foot speed of the NBA’s foremost guards. During 2015-16, Dellavedova simply refused to accept that reality.
His 108 Defensive Rating over the course of that season befitted a player with relentless tenacity. If there was a ball-handler to hound, Delly was hounding them. If there was a loose ball to chase, Delly was chasing it. He wasn’t the most talented player on the floor, but he was always going to be the hardest working (and most annoying, unless Patrick Beverley was in town).
Simply put, you don’t receive LeBron James’s admiration without earning it. Outside of three-point shooting, defense and hustle, Dellavedova was a low-usage, low-mistake floor general. His offensive output largely revolved around reliably getting the rock to a playmaker, and dodging around off-ball screens in pursuit of an open shot.
If the Utah Jazz can count on Jared Butler to play the same role, he could become a mainstay in Head Coach Quin Snyder’s rotation.
Utah Jazz rookie Jared Butler median comparison: Patty Mills
First, a caveat: there is no Australian bias in this article. Apparently, low usage, game managing point guards grow on trees in the land Down Under, alongside massive spiders and various other terrifying forms of wildlife.
Aussie or otherwise, Patty Mills is a second-round success story that Utah Jazz rookie Jared Butler could stand to emulate. Imagine playing for one of the greatest coaches in the history of your sport for nine straight seasons, only to finally deflect to one of the most talented rosters ever assembled. One would have to be a very solid, reliable player to do so.
That’s exactly what Patty Mills has been throughout his entire career. Like his countryman Matthew Dellavedova, Mills is a reliable floor-spacer, boasting a career 38.8% accuracy rate from three-point land on 4.3 attempts per game. He is also a stronger defender than his diminutive 6’1, 180 pound frame may suggest. Mills’ career Defensive Rating is 109: an already-impressive figure, but also one that is dragged down by some late-career slippage.
In 2015-16, for example, Mills posted a Defensive Rating of 102. That’s an elite mark: for context, Ben Simmons (thanks again, Australia) finished the 2020-21 season with a Defensive Rating of 106, and he was the runner up for Defensive Player of the Year.
Spoiler alert: all of the players listed in this article are “game managing” point guards, meaning they haven’t been relied on to produce the bulk of their team’s offense, but they have been relied on to execute solid decisions and, effectively, not screw up.
If Jared Butler can exceed that kind of low-usage role, the Utah Jazz will be ecstatic, but if he can fill it, they won’t complain either.
Utah Jazz rookie Jared Butler ceiling comparison: George Hill
So far in this article, we’ve compared Butler to two low-usage, floor-spacing, reliable floor generals. Consider George Hill the platinum model.
He still fits that description aptly, as his career 11.5% turnover rate will attest. Hill is the same type of game manager, but throughout his career he has landed some more prominently featured roles than either Dellavedova or Mills.
In 2016-17, Hill averaged 16.9 points on a very efficient 59.9 True Shooting Percentage (TS%) for, ironically, the Utah Jazz. He also contributed 4.2 assists per game to go with a mere 1.7 turnovers.
Assist-to-turnover ratio is an essential measure for players of Butler’s ilk, and all three of these players have consistently boasted high quality ratios throughout their careers. However, only Hill ever managed to etch out a role as a featured scorer. If Butler wants to reach his ceiling, he’ll have to demonstrate that he has the same abilities as a player like Hill in pick-and-roll formations.
If he does, there’s no reason he can’t surpass even a quality, longtime NBA player like Hill. Otherwise, Butler still projects as the type of reliable guard that NBA head coaches love. Utah Jazz fans will get a better idea of where their rookie stands once the 2021-22 NBA season is underway.