The Utah Jazz could use one more veteran guard to complete their 2021-22 rotation.
The Utah Jazz‘s guard rotation should be the envy of much of the National Basketball Association. Between Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley Jr. and Jordan Clarkson, the Jazzmen boast 3 guards who posted positive Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) figures during the 2020-21 season. Each man is a household name, with two All-Stars in Mitchell and Conley, and the reigning Sixth Man of the Year in Clarkson.
After Mitchell, Conley and Clarkson, Utah’s guard rotation gets a little murky, if not entirely bleak.
It’s hard to identify a clear fourth guard on this roster. Trent Forrest is a candidate; by any measure, this man balled out for the Utah Jazz White in the Salt Lake City Summer League. Still, calling his three-point shot a work-in-progress would be generous, and the10.1 minutes per game he played during his rookie campaign are unlikely to increase with the Utah Jazz squared firmly in title contention.
Matt Thomas is another option, however, the 7.1 minutes of action he saw on a nightly basis last season also reflect a limited player. His -6.0 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) does not inspire optimism either.
With relatively few options on the incumbent roster, the Utah Jazz may opt for an outside hire to complete their guard rotation. Here are 3 remaining options in free agency should they decide to do so.
Possible Utah Jazz addition: Frank Ntilikina
Do you want the good news first, or the bad news first? Either way, here’s the bad news:
Frank Ntilikina’s offensive value is almost zero.
Last season, under notoriously bullish Head Coach Tom Thibodeau, Ntilikina saw his minutes per game plummet, from 20.8 per game to 9.8. Now, with the Knicks declining to extend the young Frenchman a qualifying offer, Ntilikina is set to venture into unrestricted Free Agency.
The Utah Jazz should consider offering Ntilikina a home. At 6’4 with a 7’1 wingspan, Frankie Smokes has been a disruptive defender since he arrived in the NBA. He reinforced that fact last season with a 2.2 Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) and 2 steals per 36 minutes.
Furthermore, in the meager 9.8 minutes per game he saw the floor last season, Ntilikina showed some encouraging signs of offensive development. His 47.9% shooting from three-point range on 1.5 attempts per game demands a double take to confirm. It’s so far off his 30.8% mark during his first 3 seasons that one has to wonder whether it’s sustainable.
Still, Ntilikina is 23-years-old. Improvement is not only desirable, but expected, at this stage in the young point guard’s career. Having spent the first four years of his career burdened by the expectations of a lottery pick playing in Madison Square Garden, Ntilikina may benefit from playing for a small-market contender like the Utah Jazz.
Meanwhile, even if his three-point shooting regresses, the Jazz can benefit from the presence of a low-usage, high-caliber defender as the fourth guard in their rotation.
Possible Utah Jazz addition: Avery Bradley
Speaking of low-usage, high-caliber defensive guards, Avery Bradley is a solid veteran who could effectively fill out the Utah Jazz’s top-heavy guard rotation.
The primary concern with Bradley is health. Last season, the veteran off-guard managed 27 total games between the Miami Heat and the flagrantly tanking Houston Rockets. In fact, the last time Bradley completed anywhere close to a full slate of games in an NBA season was 2015-16, when he suited up 76 times for the Boston Celtics.
Nonetheless, Bradley’s impact when he does see the floor is undeniable. During the 2019-20 season, the Los Angeles Lakers’ Defensive Rating was an elite 98.7 with Bradley on the floor. That number dropped to 107.1 when Bradley sat.
To call that swing significant would be akin to calling the dissolution of the Soviet Union “a pretty big deal”.
Throughout his career, Bradley has typified the 3-and-D archetype from the shooting guard position. Last season, his 27% conversion rate from deep fell well short of his career mark of 36.3%, but much of that discrepancy can probably be attributed to the 17 out of his 27 total games he played for the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets finished an NBA worst 17-55 last season. It’s safe to say nobody on their roster was creating the kind of space a supplementary scorer like Bradley thrives within. The Utah Jazz, meanwhile, excelled at creating space for the deep ball, finishing second in the Association with 39.2% accuracy.
With elite perimeter defense and generally solid three-point accuracy, gambling on Bradley’s health could pay off in a big way for the contending Utah Jazz.
Possible Utah Jazz addition: Tyler Johnson
If the Utah Jazz do offer Tyler Johnson a contract, its value probably won’t be enough to elicit the sort of visceral reaction Johnson has had to a payday in the past. Still, he’s a solid combo guard that should be comfortably worth the equivalent of a fourth guard’s salary.
Versatility is Johnson’s calling card. He epitomizes the jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none cliché. In 2019-20, Johnson posted a VORP of 0. In other words, he was a precisely average NBA player.
Playing behind the triumvirate of Mitchell, Conley Jr. and Clarkson, that won’t be an issue. His usage rate of 13.3% last season squares nicely with the Jazz’s wealth of playmakers, and his career three-point percentage of 36% bodes well for his fit with the squad as well.
A true combo guard, Johnson can play alongside any of the 3. While he’s unlikely to significantly boost the effectiveness of any backcourt combination, he’s equally unlikely to have an adverse impact on any lineup he’s slotted into.
Johnson may not be the most exciting option for this Utah Jazz club, but he’s more reliable than young guns like Trent Forrest, Elijah Hughes, Matt Thomas or Miye Oni. For a contending squad looking for a third string guard, reliability trumps excitement.
Utah Jazz fans in Salt Lake City and abroad will enter the 2021-22 NBA season with an abundance of optimism. There are few question marks left surrounding this team, but a fourth rotational guard is one of them. Any of these 3 players would be a solid option to provide an answer.