Jazz-Rockets Game 1 thread: Bigs must keep pace defensively

Can the Utah Jazz set a tone out of the gate in their first-round playoff series against the Houston Rockets or will we have a repeat of last postseason?

The Utah Jazz begin their 2019 postseason journey on Sunday at Toyota Center when they tip-off Game 1 of their first-round playoff series with the Houston Rockets. And while MVP candidate James Harden‘s name is on the marquee, the key to the series for the Jazz band lies elsewhere, in my estimation.

Regardless of what the Jazz do to stymie him, Harden is likely going to kill them — in his last two games versus Utah, Harden averaged 45 point, nine boards, five dimes, more than five steals and two blocks per contest.

The bigger question for me will be how Jazz bigs Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors attack close-outs and switches with Harden, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon et al.

During last year’s series between the two teams, Gobert had a rough go in the latter situations. His presence down low did alter Houston’s shot pattern at times — in that sense, the Jazz’s defensive game plan was working. However, he struggled in the screen-roll game with the Rockets’ future HOF guards and athletic big man Clint Capela, not to mention the times they went small.

As a result, Gobert’s D-rating for the series was a 112.

Having said that, the Rockets team make-up is slightly different this time around, with head coach Mike D’Antoni suggesting that the loss of both Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute will preclude them from going too small, too much of the time.

That may allow the Jazz to play Favors and Gobert together more often this time around. In last year’s series, the Jazz were outscored by 44 points per 100 possessions when that duo was on the floor. Maybe this time they’ll be more effective, but, again, it all boils down to how they handle the switches and close-outs.

As ever, the Rockets’ 3-point game will be something to contend with. While they weren’t always the most accurate shooting team from distance this past season, they did take a higher percentage of their field goals as triples than any other team — nearly 52 percent. Forcing Houston into the mid-range would be ideal.

Offensively, the Jazz need more from Donovan Mitchell in the series. Last postseason he shot just 36 percent from the field and 25 percent from deep against the Rockets. Over four bouts with Houston this year, he wasn’t much better, putting up an effective field goal percentage of just 45.

Where injuries are concerned, the Jazz’s cornerstones, Gobert (ankle) and Mitchell (abdominal), have been removed from the injury report after sitting during the regular season finale. Meanwhile, Ricky Rubio (quad) and Raul Neto (ankle) are both probable to play. Kyle Korver (knee) is questionable.

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As for the Rockets, Capela is expected to be available despite his battling an upper respiratory infection.

So, do the Jazz stand any kind of chance here, or is this thing as lopsided as many national hoops pundits suggest? For my part, I think Utah will surprise some people, but I wouldn’t anticipate them troubling too much in the series or in this particular game.

That said, if they steal Game 1 and home-court advantage, you never know…right?

PREDICTION: Houston Rockets 112, Utah Jazz 105

Tip-off for the Jazz-Rockets Gm 1 is at 7:30 PM MT; it will be broadcast on TNT. Follow along with our live game discussion in the comment thread below.

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