Predicting ’18-19 Utah Jazz record following schedule release

With the Utah Jazz schedule officially released, let’s dive in and take a stab at predicting how many games they’ll win this upcoming season.

Now that the NBA schedule has been officially released, it’s starting to feel real that we’re on the downward slope towards the start of the 2018-19 campaign. The Utah Jazz exceeded expectations last season, and now the bar will be placed even higher as they aim to make some noise in the loaded Western Conference.

About this time last season, I did a deep dive of the Utah Jazz 2017-18 schedule in an effort to predict how they would fare that year. My three varying projections had the Jazz between 42 and 46 wins. Ultimately, they outdid even those marks by finishing an impressive 48-34 on the year.

I’ve decided to mimic that same exercise in an attempt to make a similar projection once again for 2018-19.

First, I’ll start by grouping each of Utah’s opponents in different categories based on their probability of beating each foe on a level playing field – 25%, 50%, 75% or 100%. As I explained last year, just because a team is in the 100% category doesn’t mean I think the Jazz will necessarily beat that team every time they meet, but it does mean that I think the Jazz very well could beat them each time.

Likewise, even in the case of the 25% teams, the Jazz could very well do better than win one of four contests against them. Yet, the fact of the matter is that the squads in this category will certainly present the biggest challenge for Utah.

**Note – last year I had a 0% percent category which was occupied solely by the Golden State Warriors. However, I feel the Jazz have proved that they can compete even with them and other elite teams, so I’ve gone ahead and eliminated that category this time around.

Here’s how it shakes out leading up to 2018-19–

25%

• Golden State Warriors
• Houston Rockets

50%

• Boston Celtics
• Denver Nuggets
• Indiana Pacers
• Los Angeles Clippers
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Milwaukee Bucks
• Minnesota Timberwolves
• New Orleans Pelicans
• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Portland Trail Blazers
• San Antonio Spurs
• Toronto Raptors

75%

• Charlotte Hornets
• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Dallas Mavericks
• Detroit Pistons
• Memphis Grizzlies
• Miami Heat
• Washington Wizards

100%

• Atlanta Hawks
• Brooklyn Nets
• Chicago Bulls
• New York Knicks
• Orlando Magic
• Phoenix Suns
• Sacramento Kings

If you compare this to last year, you’ll see that overall I’m pinning the Jazz as having better odds over a higher number of teams. A few have shifted in the opposite direction, and it should be noted that on a few last year I was dead wrong, but initially I like these groupings nonetheless.

From here, let’s take each team in their respective percentage groups and simply calculate the number of wins the Jazz will get by multiplying that percentage by the number of games they’ll play against each one–

25%

• Golden State Warriors – 0.75 wins (3 GP)
• Houston Rockets – 1 win (4 GP)

50%

• Boston Celtics – 1 win (2 GP)
• Denver Nuggets – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Indiana Pacers – 1 win (2 GP)
• Los Angeles Clippers – 1.5 wins (3 GP)
• Los Angeles Lakers – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Milwaukee Bucks – 1 win (2 GP)
• Minnesota Timberwolves – 2 wins (4 GP)
• New Orleans Pelicans – 1.5 wins (3 GP)
• Oklahoma City Thunder – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Philadelphia 76ers – 1 win (2 GP)
• Portland Trail Blazers – 2 wins (4 GP)
• San Antonio Spurs – 1.5 wins (3 GP)
• Toronto Raptors – 1 win (2 GP)

75%

• Charlotte Hornets – 1.5 wins (2 GP)
• Cleveland Cavaliers – 1.5 wins (2 GP)
• Detroit Pistons – 1.5 wins (2 GP)
• Memphis Grizzlies 3 wins (4 GP)
• Miami Heat – 1.5 wins  (2 GP)
• Washington Wizards – 1.5 wins (2 GP)

100%

• Atlanta Hawks – 2 wins  (2 GP)
• Brooklyn Nets – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Chicago Bulls – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Dallas Mavericks – 4 wins (4 GP)
• New York Knicks – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Orlando Magic – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Phoenix Suns – 4 wins (4 GP)
• Sacramento Kings – 4 wins (4 GP)

Total – 53.75 wins

Those marks would bring the Jazz to a solid 53.75 wins. Not a bad spot to finish or a bad prediction whatsoever. But, of course, there’s no such thing as half or quarter wins, so let’s go ahead and adjust all the decimals so they’re rounded either up or down to ‘whole wins’ based on factors such as back-to-backs, matchups, historical results, etc. and see what we get.

I’ve included a brief description on why I went a certain direction with each one of the following that had adjusted win total predictions–

25%

• Golden State Warriors – 1 win (3 GP): Warriors are known to coast during regular season, and especially based on last year’s results, Jazz should get at least one victory
• Houston Rockets – 1 win (4 GP)

50%

• Boston Celtics – 1 win (2 GP)
• Denver Nuggets – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Indiana Pacers – 1 win (2 GP)
• Los Angeles Clippers – 2 wins (3 GP): Jazz fared well against LAC last year and have ample rest before two of three games, last game of season for both teams will be wild card
• Los Angeles Lakers – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Milwaukee Bucks – 1 win (2 GP)
• Minnesota Timberwolves – 2 wins (4 GP)
• New Orleans Pelicans – 2 wins (3 GP): 2
• Oklahoma City Thunder – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Philadelphia 76ers – 1 win (2 GP)
• Portland Trail Blazers – 2 wins (4 GP)
• San Antonio Spurs – 2 wins (3 GP): No back-to-backs, two of three contests at home for Jazz
• Toronto Raptors – 1 win (2 GP)

75%

• Charlotte Hornets – 1 win (2 GP): For some reason Jazz always seem to struggle in Charlotte
• Cleveland Cavaliers – 2 wins (2 GP): Cleveland is a bit of a mystery, but Jazz should fare well against them
• Detroit Pistons – 1 win (2 GP): Jazz have played well against Detroit in recent years, but one of these is back-to-back during long road trip
• Memphis Grizzlies 3 wins (4 GP)
• Miami Heat – 1 win  (2 GP): The Heat gave the Jazz some issues last year
• Washington Wizards – 2 wins (2 GP): Jazz have dominated Washington in recent years

100%

• Atlanta Hawks – 2 wins  (2 GP)
• Brooklyn Nets – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Chicago Bulls – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Dallas Mavericks – 4 wins (4 GP)
• New York Knicks – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Orlando Magic – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Phoenix Suns – 4 wins (4 GP)
• Sacramento Kings – 4 wins (4 GP)

Total – 55 wins

After making those adjustments to land at a whole number, the Jazz went up 1.25 wins to land at a solid 55. This may sound high, but if the Jazz are to finish second or third in the West as several models have predicted, it’s absolutely feasible.

Last of all, let’s go ahead and look at some of Utah’s second nights of back-to-backs that I’ve calculated as wins here, and take those into consideration as potential so-called “schedule losses.” That would include October 28th in Dallas, a home game against Indiana on November 26th a home game against Dallas on February 23rd and an away game against the Hawks on March 21.

Finally, since the Jazz play both Denver and OKC on back-to-backs twice, let’s add two more losses there just to be conservative. Taking some of those tough scheduled games into consideration after our last model, this would place the Jazz at 49 wins. I feel like that’s low for their potential, especially considering they managed 48 wins last year, but a projected range of 49-55 wins feels really on point.

Not to mention, the reason the games are played is because it’s impossible to predict what will happen for certain. Teams (including the Jazz) could get hot or go on slumps, injuries could occur or a number of other obstacles could appear.

However, based on the skill of this Jazz team and taking into consideration some of the intricacies of their schedule, I believe a range of 49-55 wins is absolutely justified. My initial guess prior to this exercise was 53 wins, so I’m happy to see my projection landing near the middle of that range.

Last year, I picked the Jazz’s range as 42-46 and they outdid me, though. Can they do so again? That’s anyone’s guess for now, but I sure hope that they do.