Utah Jazz: Predicting win/loss record after schedule release

The 2017-18 Utah Jazz schedule was released on Monday and it’s only fitting that it be followed by predictions of how the team will fare.

Now that the 2017-18 NBA schedule has officially been released, the anticipation, hype and predictions surrounding the upcoming season are bound to reach a brand new high. The schedule release makes everything seem all the more real and it’s exciting to get a first look at how the upcoming year is going to come together.

My J-Notes colleague Ryan Aston already hit us with an exceptional analysis of the Utah Jazz’s 2017-18 campaign as a whole and shortly thereafter, I provided the top five Jazz games that I’m most looking forward to watching. After having a few hours to look over and digest the schedule even further since then, I wanted to try to get a sense of how I truly think the Jazz will fare next season, particularly what their win/loss record will be.

While there’s so many factors at this point that would make it tough to know just how each and every game is going to play out, I decided to go through each opponent and formulate an estimate on how many wins the Jazz would log against them based on the number of times they played. Then from there, I adjusted for certain scheduling quirks, such as back-to-backs or multiple games in a few nights.

That process is detailed out here.

First, I broke out each opponent into roughly estimated categories of what percentage of the time I would expect the Jazz to arise victorious if facing them on a level playing field, going with simple rates of 0 percent, 25 percent, 50 percent or 100 percent. You can see how I listed those out below:

0%

• Golden State Warriors

25%

• Boston Celtics
• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Houston Rockets
• Oklahoma City Thunder
• San Antonio Spurs

50%

• Charlotte Hornets
• Denver Nuggets
• Los Angeles Clippers
• Miami Heat
• Milwaukee Bucks
• Minnesota Timberwolves
• Portland Trail Blazers
• Toronto Raptors
• Washington Wizards

75%

• Dallas Mavericks
• Detroit Pistons
• Indiana Pacers
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Memphis Grizzlies
• New Orleans Pelicans
• Orlando Magic
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Sacramento Kings

100%

• Atlanta Hawks
• Brooklyn Nets
• Chicago Bulls
• New York Knicks
• Phoenix Suns

Of course these are mere estimates, nothing more. The Jazz could easily drop some games to the teams that I have in the 100% chance of victory category, whereas they could also potentially upset the Warriors despite the fact that I’ve listed them here in the 0% category.

Think of these categories as expectations for how I believe the 2017-18 Jazz team will fare against each squad, i.e. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop four games to the Warriors whereas a sweep of each of the Hawks, Nets, Bulls, Knicks and Suns seems possible.

The issue that arises with these predictions is that the Jazz don’t play each team the same number of times, thus the percentages used above won’t always result in a round number. If I strictly took those percentages above and settled for using partial wins, then the Jazz win total would be as follows (games played against the opponent in parentheses):

0%

• Golden State Warriors – 0 wins (4 GP)

25%

• Boston Celtics – .5 wins (2 GP)
• Cleveland Cavaliers – .5 wins (2 GP)
• Houston Rockets – 1 win (4 GP)
• Oklahoma City Thunder – 1 win (4 GP)
• San Antonio Spurs – 1 win (4 GP)

50%

• Charlotte Hornets – 1 win (2 GP)
• Denver Nuggets – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Los Angeles Clippers – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Miami Heat – 1 win (2 GP)
• Milwaukee Bucks – 1 win (2 GP)
• Minnesota Timberwolves – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Portland Trail Blazers – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Toronto Raptors – 1 win (2 GP)
• Washington Wizards – 1 win (2 GP)

75%

• Dallas Mavericks – 2.25 wins (3 GP)
• Detroit Pistons – 1.5 wins (2 GP)
• Indiana Pacers – 1.5 wins (2 GP)
• Los Angeles Lakers – 2.25 wins (3 GP)
• Memphis Grizzlies – 2.25 wins (3 GP)
• New Orleans Pelicans – 3 wins (4 GP)
• Orlando Magic – 1.5 wins (2 GP)
• Philadelphia 76ers – 1.5 wins (2 GP)
• Sacramento Kings – 2.25 wins (3 GP)

100%

• Atlanta Hawks – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Brooklyn Nets – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Chicago Bulls – 2 wins (2 GP)
• New York Knicks – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Phoenix Suns – 4 wins (4 GP)

Total – 45 wins

That 45-win mark actually doesn’t seem like that bad of an estimate. However, since half-wins and quarter-wins don’t actually exist, I decided to do a different and potentially more accurate projection below.

This one eliminates any wins previously represented by a decimal and instead considers some of the factors in the schedule such as back-to-backs, road games, etc. that could make a “25% opponent” drop to become a “0% opponent” or a “75% opponent” rise a few decimal points to become a “100% opponent”, while keeping the percentages that resulted in a whole number the same.

When I do that, the projection (along with a brief explanation of the change in the win number) shakes out as follows:

0%

• Golden State Warriors – 0 wins (4 GP)

25%

• Boston Celtics – 1 win (2 GP): Jazz crowd lifts Jazz to victory over Hayward and Co. in Utah
• Cleveland Cavaliers – 1 win (2 GP): LeBron struggles in SLC continue
• Houston Rockets – 1 win (4 GP)
• Oklahoma City Thunder – 1 win (4 GP)
• San Antonio Spurs – 1 win (4 GP)

50%

• Charlotte Hornets – 1 win (2 GP)
• Denver Nuggets – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Los Angeles Clippers – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Miami Heat – 1 win (2 GP)
• Milwaukee Bucks – 1 win (2 GP)
• Minnesota Timberwolves – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Portland Trail Blazers – 2 wins (4 GP)
• Toronto Raptors – 1 win (2 GP)
• Washington Wizards – 1 win (2 GP)

75%

• Dallas Mavericks – 2 wins (3 GP): Between road game and B2B, Jazz likely to drop one
• Detroit Pistons – 1 win (2 GP): Game on road is fourth in six nights
• Indiana Pacers – 1 win (2 GP): Game on road is fourth in six nights
• Los Angeles Lakers – 3 wins (3 GP): Jazz have favorable schedule for each game
• Memphis Grizzlies – 2 wins (3 GP): Grizzlies tough team to sweep
• New Orleans Pelicans – 3 wins (4 GP)
• Orlando Magic – 1 win (2 GP): Game on road is B2B and part of four-game road trip
• Philadelphia 76ers – 1 win (2 GP): Game on road is last of four-game road trip
• Sacramento Kings – 2 wins (3 GP): Two games on road, one B2B

100%

• Atlanta Hawks – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Brooklyn Nets – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Chicago Bulls – 2 wins (2 GP)
• New York Knicks – 2 wins (2 GP)
• Phoenix Suns – 4 wins (4 GP)

Total – 46 wins

Surprisingly, adjusting each of these percentage estimates so that there are no partial wins and figuring in certain scheduling and match-up situations kept the Jazz at about the same mark – 46 wins, an increase of just one. I think that both 45 and 46 wins are plausible predictions for the Utah Jazz next season, however, given how deep the West is, it also wouldn’t be all that surprising to see them finish slightly below that.

The two areas that could most likely teeter in the opposite direction would be the 100% category and the 50% category. While it would be nice to suppose that the Jazz could sweep all five of those teams listed above, that wouldn’t exactly be an easy task, especially considering that two of them come on the second nights of back-to-backs.

In terms of the opponents listed under 50%, particularly those in the Eastern Conference play such a small sample size of only two games against the Jazz that the slightest scheduling quirk could cause these to end up either way. Although the Jazz’s odds of winning any one of those games on a level playing field could be 50/50 as I’ve estimated, it isn’t all that uncommon for the flip of a coin to end up landing the same way two times in a row.

With that being said, based on the latest predictions, let’s also add in that the Jazz drop their games that fall on the second night of a back-to-back to Brooklyn and Phoenix and that two of their Eastern Conference opponents that I listed as “50% opponents” – Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami, Toronto, or Washington – end up defeating the Jazz twice. That would then place the Jazz at 42 wins.

Basing off of those three projections, I feel like they formulate a very probable range for the Jazz next season of 42-46 wins. Prior to the release of Utah’s schedule, my prediction was right around 44 wins, so it’s nice to see that guess fall smack dab in the middle.

Obviously, there are several factors that could make the final outcome much different from these estimates for better, such as players exceeding expectations, or for worse, such as injuries plaguing the team once again.

Nevertheless, barring any unforeseen factors, I’m going to stick with the prediction that the Jazz will finish next season at a 44-38 clip – a mark which last season would have put them solidly in 7th place in the West. However, depending how other teams in the West fare, that record could put them at a completely different spot entirely in 2017-18.

It wasn’t all that long ago that I somewhat boldly predicted the Jazz to finish sixth in the conference and given how deep the Western Conference is going to be this season and how much its teams will beat one another up, it isn’t outside the realm of possibilities that 44 wins could be precisely enough for that spot.

Next: Utah Jazz: Top 5 games to circle on the calendar in 2017-18

What do you think the Jazz’s win/loss record will be at the end of the season? Let me know in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter.