Utah Jazz: Pros and cons of the first-round series against OKC

Regular season series doesn’t tell the full story

One of the major concerns among Jazz fans going into this series is that the Oklahoma City Thunder won the regular season series 3-1. Don’t get me wrong, there’s definitely some legitimate reasons to be worried about that as the Thunder created some matchup problems for Utah in all three of those losses.

However, as my J-Notes colleague Tyler Crandall described in a recent piece, it’s also safe to say that none of those four games was a good indication of what we should expect for the upcoming playoff series. He summed it up extremely well in his piece which is accessible via the link in the tweet below, so allow me to just summarize here.

The Jazz won the first contest, but it was very early in the year and OKC was definitely going through some major growing pains as they looked to assimilate their three stars. Some might argue those growing pains still haven’t been resolved, but it was particularly bad early in the year. With that game taking place so long ago, it’s hard to compare it to the current teams, so even though Utah won that contest, there’s not a lot to take away from it.

In the second contest, the Jazz were playing on the second night of a back-to-back and led for almost the entire way before falling apart late in the contest and giving the game away. Rudy Gobert was also in between injuries and less than one hundred percent, making this a less than accurate depiction of who the Jazz really are.

In the third contest, Utah was without both Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, which as you might expect, made for one ugly contest in which the Jazz were blown out of the water. That’s what tends to happen when your two best players aren’t in action. If the Jazz could take on a Westbrook-less and George-less Thunder team every time, it’d probably result in a blowout more often than not as well.

In the final contest, Mitchell returned but Rudy was still absent. Utah did better than the previous contest, but still fell short.

Beyond just looking at those games individually, it’s also important to look at both teams as a whole since those four contests. Obviously the Jazz got thrashed by just about everyone in December, not just the Thunder, and it’s apparent how much better they’ve been in the latter part of the season. They did just close out the year 29-6 after all.

With Gobert back and healthy, Utah’s defense has been revamped and dangerous. It’s no stretch whatsoever to say that they’re an entirely different team. The same could be said about OKC, but not exactly for the better. In all four contests, wing defender extraordinaire Andre Roberson was in action. However, after suffering a season-ending knee injury, he obviously won’t be active for the playoffs.

OKC still has an excellent wing defender in Paul George, but there’s no denying that Roberson presented problems for the Jazz, as he did for all teams. From the start of the season up until the game where Roberson was hurt on January 27th, the Thunder posted the fifth best defensive rating in the league at 103.1. In the span since then, they dropped all the way to 15th at a rating of 107.

Utah, meanwhile, has been the absolute opposite. Since the fateful loss to the Atlanta Hawks back on January 22nd and in conjunction with Rudy Gobert’s return, the Jazz have posted the league’s best defensive rating by a landslide of 96.5. That’s nearly five points per 100 possessions better than the mark of the second-best Philadelphia 76ers during that span. Not to mention, Jae Crowder is a new addition who the Thunder have never faced in a Jazz uniform.

To make a long story short (I know, too late), these are two completely different teams that haven’t seen one another since December. While there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the matchup OKC presents, my advice to Jazz fans would be to not let the regular season bouts hold too much bearing in their opinion about how well Utah will play against them.

Back in December, the Jazz didn’t even look like a playoff team. Fortunately, that’s not the same team we’re dealing with now. Utah is much-improved while OKC is without their pesky wing defender. Bearing that in mind, it’s nice to know that the Thunder’s 3-1 regular season series win doesn’t hold much weight.