Utah Jazz 2017-18 Week 21 Outlook, Predictions

The Utah Jazz face an absolutely vital four-game stretch, including a bout with the New Orleans Pelicans, in the 21st week of the 2017-18 season.

Between a 3-2 record and some sloppy play, the Utah Jazz haven’t exactly thrived since the All-Star break, but they were finally able to earn consecutive victories last week for the first time since their 11-game winning streak, so that was a nice mini-step in the right direction. After losing to the Houston Rockets on Monday, the Jazz went on to win two games in as many nights with a chippy victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves then with a somewhat sloppy win over the Sacramento Kings.

The results of those three games went precisely as I predicted they would last week, which finally brought my projections record back above .500 at 32-31. The Jazz, meanwhile, continue to raise their win percentage as they now sit at 33-30.

In a typical season, one would expect that a record of 33-30 would be enough to have the Jazz in the playoff mix. Unfortunately, this season is anything but typical. Instead, the Western Conference, especially seeds 3-10, is an absolute bloodbath, with only four games separating those teams. Even a mere two-game losing streak could condemn any team from a top-4 spot to being in danger of falling out entirely.

In other words, particularly since the Jazz are currently on the outside looking in at 10th place, every game they play will be absolutely vital and they need the teams ahead of them in the standings to somehow start losing, even though many of them, most notably the Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets, have been playing really well.

With that scenario, the Jazz face a challenging and crucial stretch in Week 21 of action. Their next ten games are all against beatable opponents meaning that this could be a great opportunity for them to go on yet another big run. However, that doesn’t mean it’s going to be without its challenges. None of Utah’s upcoming four games this week will be cake walks, and two particularly stand out as exceedingly dangerous.

They’ll begin with the easiest opponent of the bunch on Monday as they host the struggling Orlando Magic who find themselves in the huge clump of teams hovering around the 18 to 20-win mark that are battling more for lottery position than anything else. Then the Jazz will travel to Indiana on Wednesday to take on a dangerous Pacers team that has not only exceeded expectations as a whole this year, but typically has a hostile home environment. Indy handily defeated Utah in Salt Lake City and will present quite a challenge once again.

Utah stays on the road for the final two bouts as they’ll travel to Memphis on Friday to take on the dwindling Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis’ record should lead one to believe this would be a win for the Jazz, but the Grizzlies have given Utah issues before and certainly can’t be overlooked on their home court.

Last of all is potentially the game of the month as the Utah Jazz will visit the red hot New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday in a battle of two teams vying for playoff positioning. During the height of Utah’s 11-game win streak, it appeared that the Pels were the team they were most likely to catch, especially after DeMarcus Cousins went down with an Achilles injury. Instead, New Orleans has rattled off seven straight wins to surge to fifth in the West and looks like one of the toughest opponents in the league.

It’s entirely possible that Sunday’s contest ends up having a direct result on where both teams finish in the standings come season’s end.

With that stage set, you’ve probably got a pretty good idea of just how important and potentially nerve-wracking this week could be. Even so, let’s dive into each game and opponent a little deeper to dissect Utah’s chances for success in Week 21 of the 2017-18 season.

3/5 Utah vs. Orlando

7:00 pm MT – AT&T SportsNet/League Pass

Opponent record: 20-43

Season series: Jazz lead 1-0

A lot has changed since the Utah Jazz and Orlando Magic last faced off. In that game, the Jazz exploded for a commanding 125-85 victory that was a huge surprise considering how poorly they had been playing on the road at that point. The win was largely sparked by 31 points from Rodney Hood, who ironically is no longer with the team.

That victory also came immediately following a pair of disappointing losses to the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets, whereas the Magic, due to their hot start, were still viewed as a potentially tough opponent. That led many to wonder who this Jazz team really was and how good they could be this year. There have been a lot of ups and downs since then and, quite honestly, I think it will take until the season’s end to truly determine the nature of this Jazz team.

Setting all that aside, though, the fact of the matter is that these are two completely different teams now facing different situations. The Jazz are battling for a playoff spot while the Magic are likely thinking more about the 2018 NBA Draft. Nevertheless, they have played relatively well of late as they come in with a two-game winning streak over the Detroit Pistons and Memphis Grizzlies.

In spite of their struggles this season, the Magic still have plenty of talented players that can be dangerous and a coach in Frank Vogel that I feel is underappreciated in the league, and despite potential front office intentions to tank, will instill a never-say-die mentality in his team nonetheless.

Therefore, this is a team that’s playing well and has little to lose and that could make them very dangerous. Nevertheless, I’m still feeling confident that the Jazz will come out on top in this one.

Not only has Utah played exceptionally well against Orlando in their past three meetings, but the Magic are just 7-25 away from home, so I think the Jazz will be able to dominate on their home court. Utah hasn’t had any one game since the break where I’d say they looked great, but they’ve been able to grind out wins over inferior teams nonetheless.

I’d love to see Utah get back to their superb ways and put up a dominating win on Monday, but whether they do or not, I’m pretty confident that they’ll arise victorious nonetheless.

My Prediction: Jazz Win

Final Score: Utah 107, Orlando 98

3/7 Utah at Indiana

5:00 pm MT – AT&T SportsNet/League Pass

Opponent record: 35-27

Season series: Pacers lead 1-0

The Indiana Pacers have been one of the most intriguing and at times confusing teams in the league this year. They were pinned by many to be a sure-fire lottery team coming into the season after they traded away superstar Paul George for a pair of young guns in Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. Instead, with a win today, they’ll find themselves in fourth place in the Eastern Conference and just a half-game behind the Cleveland Cavaliers over whom they own the tiebreaker.

Yeah, they’ve been that good.

But then again, at times the Pacers have been wildly inconsistent. Part of this is due simply to youth as their young core has struggled at times to maintain focus and discipline. This has been quite clear since the All-Star break as Indiana dropped two surprising losses to the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks, then bounced back by defeating the much tougher Milwaukee Bucks.

Even within individual games the Pacers have been inconsistent as they’ve gotten off to huge first-half deficits on several occasions only to bounce back and win in the end.

In other words, Utah’s success in Indiana on Wednesday may very well come down to which version of this Pacers team shows up. If Victor Oladipo is firing on all cylinders, the three-point shot is going down and the team is locked in defensively, they’ll be tough to beat. Otherwise, the Jazz could earn a solid road win.

The Pacers certainly looked more like the former as they dropped a 109-94 blowout on the Jazz that wasn’t even as close as the final score indicated. The game was viewed as one of Utah’s low points of the season, but they’ve improved significantly since then as well.

In short, I think this game is about as up-for-grabs as they come. Both teams are hungry to improve where they sit in the standings. Both have had their share of ups and downs this year. The Jazz will be looking for revenge while the Pacers will be aiming to show that their prior domination wasn’t a fluke.

I really could see it going either way, but in the end, I’m going to go with the Pacers coming out on top. They play exceptionally well at home (21-11 compared to 14-16 on the road) and to be honest, even in Jazz wins they haven’t really impressed me since the break. Maybe they turn things around this week and clean up some of their recent sloppy play, but they’ll need to play much better than they have of late to beat a dangerous Pacers team.

The key to doing so will likely be slowing Oladipo, who has been in a bit of a shooting funk since the All-Star break. But if he’s given free reign and is allowed to explode like he did in Salt Lake City, it will mean big trouble for the Jazz.

My Prediction: Pacers Win

Final Score: Indiana 104, Utah 101

3/9 Utah at Memphis

6:00 pm MT – AT&T SportsNet/League Pass

Opponent record: 18-44

Season series: Jazz lead 1-0

My, how the mighty have fallen. For several years the Memphis Grizzlies have been a team that was almost guaranteed to make the playoffs as, even when it appeared they would take a step backwards going into a season, they still found a way to grind their way in. To start out this year, it looked like it would be more of the same as they began the season red hot.

But they’ve since cooled in the worst of ways.

After the fallout with former head couch David Fizdale, the Grizzlies have swan dived down the standings until they now find themselves at dead last in not only the Western Conference, but in the entire NBA. The once pesky and dangerous Grizzlies have looked anything but of late as they’ve become one of the most disappointing teams in the league.

Nevertheless, they still could be a roadblock for the Utah Jazz as it feels like it’s never easy for them to beat the Grizzlies, particularly in Memphis. The last time these two teams faces off this season, the game ended in a much too close for comfort 92-88 slug-fest as Utah pulled out the narrowest of victories.

Of course, Memphis’ leading scorer Tyreke Evans didn’t play in that game as he was presumably set to be traded at the impending trade deadline, but instead he stayed put. Since then, he’s played in only three games and just one since the All-Star break as he deals with a rib injury. Therefore, it’s entirely possible that he’ll miss a second straight contest against the Jazz.

Whether he’s in or not, the Jazz will still have to deal with Marc Gasol, who’s been a constant thorn in their side throughout the years. He hasn’t been quite as dominant this season with a lackluster supporting cast and as Father Time catches up to him, but he’ll still keep Utah’s frontcourt on their toes without a doubt.

While there are certainly some fears about going into Memphis and playing the hard-nosed Grizzlies, I believe Utah will be able to come out on top once again. The Grizzlies will pose somewhat of a challenge and won’t just roll over, but they’ve plummeted so far in the standings due largely to a blatant lack of talent and I think the Jazz will be able to take advantage in a likely low-scoring affair.

My Prediction: Jazz Win

Final Score: Utah 95, Memphis 84

3/11 Utah at New Orleans

2:00 pm MT – AT&T SportsNet/League Pass

Opponent record: 35-26

Season series: Jazz lead 2-1

Finally, to end the week, the Jazz will face the most daunting battle of them all – a contest against the red hot New Orleans Pelicans that could very well have major playoff implications. With a win next Sunday afternoon, the Jazz would seal the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, which could be huge depending on how New Orleans finishes out the year.

The last time Utah and New Orleans faced off, the Pelicans caught them right in the middle of their incredible winning streak and the Jazz looked like a force that could not be stopped as they won in commanding fashion 133-109. Ironically, that came in a game where Donovan Mitchell was struggling with illness and finished with just two points in 19 minutes while former Jazzman Rodney Hood (30 points) and Ricky Rubio (20 points) led the way for Utah.

Obviously, the game plan will have to change somewhat for the Jazz this time around, but as crucial as a game as this will be, I like Utah’s chances. Derrick Favors was phenomenal in the last meeting as he appeared to be out for blood against Nikola Mirotic, who several rumors had pinned as a trade target for the Jazz, presumably to replace Faves.

Not only that, but Utah fared extremely well against Anthony Davis in that contest. Between Favors and Rudy Gobert, Utah has actually had pretty good luck against AD in games past, so I like their chances. Davis has been on an absolute mission of late as he’s putting up incredible numbers and the Pelicans are certainly going to know what’s at stake in this game. But I still think that this is a favorable matchup for the Jazz, as they’ve shown in winning two of the three contests so far.

With that being the case, while I expect an absolute battle, I think the Jazz will figure out a way to hold AD in check and stop the rest of the pesky Pelicans to earn a monumental victory to close out the week.

My Prediction: Jazz Win

Final Score: Utah 106, New Orleans 104

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I’m truly looking forward to what should be an exhilarating week for the Jazz. Although I’ve pinned them to go a solid 3-1, the games against Indiana and New Orleans could really go either way. I feel confident that the Jazz will take care of business against Orlando and Memphis, but those other two are going to be dogfights.

Despite how hot the Jazz have been of late (they’ve won 14 of their last 16), they still find themselves in 10th in the West, which means their work is far from done. Some of their counterparts in the West have very tough stretches coming up in Week 21, though, so if Utah can take advantage in this four-game span, they may finally be able to gain some ground.

It doesn’t get much more intense than this. The next four games should be an absolute thrill ride for Utah Jazz fans.