Utah Jazz 2017-18 Week 20 Outlook, Predictions

The Utah Jazz will aim to initiate a new winning streak as they face a trio of important games in Week 20 of the 2017-18 season.

We had to figure that it would happen sometime, but seeing the Utah Jazz come back to earth in Week 19, the first week following the All-Star break, and having their incredible 11-game winning streak snapped was quite a disappointment. Utah had been playing such good basketball leading up to the break, but in their pair of games last week, they just didn’t quite look like the same team.

They were handily defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers in a game where Utah’s offense couldn’t get rolling and they struggled to find their shot. Defensively they didn’t perform well either as the Blazers were largely able to have their way. Then on Saturday night, although the Jazz ultimately came out on top, it was an ugly bout against the Dallas Mavericks in which Utah barely prevailed.

And so, after going 1-1 and bringing their record to 31-29, the Jazz still find themselves in 10th place in the West with ground to make up if they’re to sneak into the playoffs. I was optimistic last week and had pinned them to go 2-0, so I went 1-1 as well, bringing my projections record to 29-31.

The Jazz now have a tough week ahead before things start to ease up, but if they’re to remain on track to potentially make the playoffs, it will be imperative that they step up in a big way and get back into the groove they were in prior to the All-Star break. They’ll start out the week hosting the Houston Rockets on Monday, then have three days off before hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday. Finally, they’ll wrap up the week on the road against the lowly Sacramento Kings on Saturday.

The Jazz are still two games out of the playoffs and, although their schedule eases up significantly for most of the month of March, it will be critical that they steal some big upset wins if they’re truly to qualify for postseason competition. With that being the case, let’s dive in and take a closer look at each of Utah’s matchups in an important Week 20 of NBA action.

2/26 Utah vs. Houston

7:00 pm MT – AT&T SportsNet/League Pass

Opponent record: 45-13

Season series: Rockets lead 3-0

The Jazz start out the week on Monday against the hottest team in the NBA in the Houston Rockets, who have moved into the top seed in the West and currently hold an 11-game winning streak of their own. Houston has had their way with the Jazz all season long as they hold a 3-0 regular season series lead heading into the final matchup between the two squads.

The Rockets do play this evening in Denver, meaning they’ll be coming into Salt Lake on the second night of a back-to-back whereas the Jazz should be fresh, so hopefully this will give Utah a slight edge against a daunting Rockets team. Last season, the Jazz actually matched up quite well against Houston, so Quin Snyder could very well have a good game plan in store that would help give the Jazz a boost.

Unfortunately that was before they added the likes of Chris Paul, who’s been sensational in Houston, so toppling them will be much easier said than done. Houston also now has another player that’s all too familiar to Jazz fans in Joe Johnson who was bought out by the Sacramento Kings following the trade to bring Jae Crowder to Utah. It will be weird seeing him in an opposing team’s uniform, but I imagine he’ll get a nice ovation from Jazz fans.

https://twitter.com/HoustonRockets/status/967413834083270657

Of course, when going up against the Rockets, the player that garners the most attention is none other than James Harden, who many have pinned as the frontrunner to win the NBA MVP award this season. Harden has been nothing short of sensational this year as he’s averaging 31.3 points per game as well as five rebounds and nine assists. He’s scoring with ease and putting up triple-doubles like they’re nothing and has been the catalyst behind his team’s run to the number one seed.

And it seems the Jazz always struggle to contain him. Earlier in the season, he put up an incredible 56 points against Utah at an outrageous clip of 19-of-25 (76 percent) from the field and 7-of-8 (87.5 percent) from deep. When he catches fire like that, there’s essentially no stopping him. But if Utah is to come out on top on Monday, they’ll need to find a way to render him as inefficient as possible.

I like the fact that Houston is coming on the second night of a back-to-back as the Jazz will need all the help they can get. During Utah’s previous winning streak, they did manage to blowout the Golden State Warriors by 30 points, so if that version of this Jazz team shows up, they may very well be able to surprise the Rockets as well and pull off an extraordinary game.

Unfortunately, based on what we’ve seen from Utah’s two games back from the break, I don’t really see that happening. I have a hunch that the Jazz will be unable to keep up with the red hot Rockets who will come into Salt Lake looking to sweep the season series against a team that could potentially be their first-round opponent in the playoffs.

My Prediction: Rockets Win

Final Score: Houston 118, Utah 107

3/2 Utah vs. Minnesota

8:30 pm MT – ESPN

Opponent record: 37-26

Season series: Timberwolves lead 2-0

After facing the Houston Rockets, the Utah Jazz will then have three full days off before they host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday in the final game of their home stand. The T-Wolves had been rolling and had surged all the way up to third place in the West, but unfortunately in a recent loss to the Houston Rockets, Minnesota’s leading scorer Jimmy Butler went down with a serious knee injury.

It was later revealed to be a meniscal injury that will require surgery and will likely keep Butler out for at least four to six weeks, though he has stated that he hopes to make a return before the playoffs. Of course, Butler’s injury led several to question even further the methods of head coach Tom Thibodeau who has built a reputation of overplaying his best players to a dangerous level. His starting lineup easily plays the most minutes of any in the league and they’ll now have a hard time making up for Butler’s production on both ends of the floor.

In a recent Sports Illustrated piece by Ben Golliver (which was excellently done, I might add) talking about Minnesota’s now endangered playoff hopes, he brings up just how much the Wolves are going to miss Butler’s impact. These two quotes particularly stood out to me:

"With Butler on the court, the Timberwolves’ net rating was +7.8, roughly equivalent to the No. 3 ranked Raptors. Without him, the Timberwolves’ net rating plunged to -8.7, roughly equivalent to the No. 29 ranked Kings. With Butler, Minnesota managed to boast the No. 3 overall offense despite ranking 27th in bench scoring. With Butler, Minnesota enjoyed the West’s No. 4 seed despite possessing the league’s worst bench. Without him on the court, though, the Timberwolves’ defensive rating slides to 115.7, five points worse than the dead-last Suns. That level of sustained defensive ineptitude is a strong recipe for squandering whatever heroics Towns can muster in a new leading role. Frustration and finger-pointing could mount quickly."

Particularly Minnesota’s defensive drop-off without Jimmy Butler is absolutely astounding to me. As skilled and potentially dangerous as both Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins can be, defense has never been their forte. And while the Wolves were able to defeat the hapless Chicago Bulls in their first contest without Butler, it was far from easy for them.

As Minnesota looks to adjust to life without Butler, the Jazz may be catching them at a time that will work in their favor. The Timberwolves are still a force to be reckoned with, but with a defense that struggles without Butler and one of the most under-performing benches in the league, I believe that Utah will be able to take care of business and defeat them, especially within the friendly confines of Vivint Smart Home Arena.

Further aiding the Jazz is the fact that, not only will they have three days off to prepare for this bout, but Minnesota will be playing in the second night of a back-to-back after visiting the Portland Trail Blazers the night before in a late contest. Figure in how ragged Thibodeau tends to run his starters and the Jazz could very well be facing an exhausted Wolves team while having about as fresh of legs as possible themselves.

Add all that up and the Jazz should be poised for a big and crucial win on national television on Friday night.

My Prediction: Jazz Win

Final Score: Utah 113, Minnesota 101

3/3 Utah at Sacramento

8:00 pm MT – AT&T SportsNet/League Pass

Opponent record: 18-41

Season series: Jazz lead 1-0

After enjoying three whole days off prior to the game against the Timberwolves, the Jazz will then go on to play in a back-to-back set of their own as they visit the Sacramento Kings on Saturday. In almost astounding fashion, the Kings are one of six teams across the NBA with just 18 wins on the season putting them right in the thick of the great Tankathon that is sure to take place to close out the year as each of these miserable teams jockey for position to earn the best draft pick.

Honestly, I think it’s a disgusting scenario that features so many teams aiming to lose (blatantly or otherwise) so that they can hypothetically improve in future seasons. So many of these teams have been bad for so long, that you have to wonder when they’ll try a different approach, but I digress…

The Jazz made light work of the Kings the last time these two squads faced even though it was a road game during a time when winning away from Vivint Smart Home Arena was an extreme rarity. The Kings boast a couple of dangerous players, perhaps most notably Bogdan Bogdanovic who recently won the Rising Stars MVP award and has been on a complete tear lately, but in all, the Jazz significantly outmatch the Kings talent-wise.

Sacramento is currently riding a three-game losing streak and hasn’t defeated a team with a winning record since they sneaked past the New Orleans Pelicans back on January 30th. Barring an absolute meltdown on the part of the Jazz, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t win this game and win it handily.

My Prediction: Jazz Win

Final Score: Utah 121, Sacramento 103

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If my predictions hold true, the Utah Jazz will go 2-1 this week which will include an important win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. As much as I’d like to see them play streak-busters and initiate a new win streak of their own by topping the Houston Rockets on Monday, I just don’t see it happening based on how Utah looked against Portland and Dallas last week.

However, they’ve surprised me before, so perhaps it’s unwise for me to count them out. Regardless of how Monday’s contest goes, though, I’m feeling very confident about Utah’s chances against both Minnesota and Sacramento, and logging yet another week with a winning record would be a great step in the right direction as Utah looks to make a playoff push in the final weeks of the regular season.