Utah Jazz: Does Donovan Mitchell now have the edge in ROY race?

The Rookie of the Year race has become a heated competition between Donovan Mitchell of the Utah Jazz and the Philadelphia 76ers’ Ben Simmons.

The Utah Jazz have not had a player win Rookie of the Year honors since 1981. That was 37 years ago. Lucky for Jazz fans, one of the main reasons for that drought has been continued long-term success. Very rarely has the team drafted a player high enough that you would expect them to be an immediate contributor.

The winner in 1981 was one Darrell Griffith. As a 22-year-old rookie, Griffith averaged 20.6 points per game. He scored over 20 points an impressive 50 times that season, including nine games over 30 points.

There are many comparisons to Griffith and current Jazz Rookie of the Year hopeful, Donovan Mitchell. They are both University of Louisville alums, and both are listed around 6-foot-3. Mitchell is averaging 19.6 points per game, to go along with 3.5 assist and rebounds. He has scored over 20 points 28 times, including four games over 30 points, and even has two games over 40 points — something Griffith never accomplished.

One of the biggest differences between the two, though, is their team’s record. Griffith won the ROY award with his team going 28-52. On the flip side, Mitchell is the leading scorer for a team on a path to the playoffs.

By the end of November, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Ben Simmons was going to win Rookie of the Year honors. That narrative has now changed.

Since then, Mitchell has slowly been gaining steam, while Simmons has somewhat tailed off. Mitchell has continued to expand his game, and won Rookie of the Month honors in December and January. His February numbers should get him the award for a third consecutive month.

In order for Mitchell to take over the lead in the Rookie of the Year race, he needs to accomplish a few things. Luckily, over All-star Weekend, he has already checked off one item from the list.

Get the National Media on his side

One of the biggest struggles for a player in a smaller market, is gaining enough national interest to ensure people are actually seeing what you are doing. Players in Utah are at an inherent disadvantage for this. It’s one of the reasons Jazz players are rarely going to be voted by the fans as All-Star Game starters.

During All-star Weekend, Donovan Mitchell accomplished that. He was one of the most sought-after interviews by the media, and he stole the show with his victory in the Dunk Contest on Saturday Night.

On that performance alone, I believe he pulled himself even with Ben Simmons in the Rookie of the Year race. I know and understand that the Dunk Contest has nothing to do with actual in-game performance. However, post All-Star break, Mitchell has essentially assured himself a much higher amount of media attention. Even in a smaller market.

We’ve seen it already when following Mitchell on Instagram and Twitter. After winning the dunk contest, he was seen exchanging numbers with Floyd Mayweather, and out to dinner with Michael Rapaport. He was selected as the ROY winner by both Stephen A. Smith and Jalen Rose. We’ve also seen multiple current NBA stars endorsing Mitchell and his ROY candidacy. Notably, Damian Lillard and DeMar DeRozan over the All-Star break.

Increase scoring to 20 Points Per Game

Since the 1996 season, nine rookies have finished with scoring averages of above 20 points per game. Of those nine, seven won Rookie of the Year honors. The two that lost? Joel Embiid, who didn’t play enough games to truly qualify, and Carmelo Anthony, who lost to another rookie who averaged 20-plus points (some guy named Lebron James).

This shows two things. 1) a rookie scoring 20 ppg is a rare occurrence, and 2) unless another rookie does something special (like getting to double-digit triple-doubles for the season), they are typically guaranteeing themselves the Rookie of the Year award.

Mitchell is currently averaging 19.6 points per game, but since November 1, so all we are cutting out is the first two weeks of the season, Mitchell is averaging 21.1 points. As long as there isn’t a major drop off post All-Star break, Mitchell should easily be able to finish the season averaging above 20 points per game.

One of the most consistent arguments I hear in favor of Ben Simmons, is that while Mitchell may be besting him in scoring, Simmons has a higher rebound and assist average.

While that is true, I don’t support the argument. Different players at different positions and playing for different teams, should not be compared with their numbers side by side. Ben Simmons is averaging more rebounds than Mitchell? Well that’s shocking — he’s only eight inches taller than Mitchell.

As for the assist numbers, Simmons and Mitchell are asked to fill two completely different roles on their respective teams. The Sixers put the ball in Simmons hands, and ask him to be a playmaker; to set others up. The Jazz put the ball in his hands and ask him to score.

If the roles were reversed, and the two were to switch teams, Mitchell would likely find more success than Simmons. Simmons is not a natural scorer, but Mitchell has shown terrific passing vision to go along with his scoring chops.

So you can’t discount Mitchell just because Simmons’ rebounding and assist numbers are higher. If Mitchell can get his scoring average above 20 points per game, his lower rebound and assist numbers should not be a factor.

Sidenote: The assist can be a bit of an arbitrary stat anyway. This was recently said by Ben Falk on his website, Cleaning the Glass. “The assist is dependent on whether a teammate makes a shot. A great pass for a wide-open lay-up that’s blown isn’t counted, even if it results in an immediate put-back for points. Nor is it counted if the defense fouls to prevent the basket.

An assist is also dependent on the first player receiving the pass [and] making the shot. If Ben Simmons comes off a screen and fires a cross-court laser to the opposite corner, the defense might rotate to the corner shooter. When that shooter swings it to the wide open wing three, now he’ll get the assist even though we’d say Simmons is the one who did most of the work in creating the shot.”

The Jazz need to make the playoffs

This really should have been my main point, so thanks if you’ve stuck it out this long.

If the Jazz are able to make the playoffs, in a more difficult Western Conference, and Donovan Mitchell is their leading scorer, he should win Rookie of the year.

More from The J-Notes

• With the FIBA World Cup over for Simone Fontecchio, it’s clear he deserves minutes for the Utah Jazz
• Best, Worst and Most likely scenarios for the Utah Jazz this season
• Hoops Hype downplays the significance of the Utah Jazz’s valuable assets
• 3 Utah Jazz players who have the most to gain or lose this season
• Former Utah Jazz forward Rudy Gay is a free agent still and it shouldn’t surprise anyone

This is an unorthodox year for the Rookie of the Year race. Typically the players competing for the honor, are the main players on some of the worst teams in the league. That is not the case this year, as both the Sixers and the Jazz are projected to be in the playoffs.

The Sixers are 30-25, and currently slotted as the seventh seed in the East. This has been a six-year rebuild for the Sixers, and it appears they are finally ready to make the post-season, albeit in a weaker conference. Simmons is a big part of that, and I don’t want to discount what he means to the Sixers franchise.

What Mitchell is doing in the Western Conference though, is just more impressive.

Currently, the Utah Jazz are on an 11-game win streak, which includes victories over playoff teams in the Pistons, Raptors, Warriors, Spurs, Pelicans, Blazers, and the Spurs again. During that stretch, he has averaged 21.3 points, four rebounds and four assists. They are now only 1.5 games out of the eighth seed, but are also just 2.5 games out of the No. 5 seed.

Since the NBA/ABA merger, very rarely has a rookie been the leading scorer on a playoff team. Donovan Mitchell is on pace to do just that, and that should be enough to award him the first Rookie of the Year award for the Jazz since 1981.