The Utah Jazz are a team in motion, and it’s impossible to know where they’re going.
The Utah Jazz are a team that could, quite honestly, wind up anywhere and everywhere in the final standings and you’d have a sizeable portion of the fanbase not surprised. They could finish with the best record in the west, or barely make the Play-In Tournament, or end up in the lottery and each event will see a group of people going “See, I told you.”
But why? Well, it’s because the team is in a unique place where the powers that be are both trying to rebuild the franchise to win a title, as well as keeping the younger assets they have and building around them. That wasn’t always the plan, however.
When the team landed Lauri Markkanen, the plans changed. They knew he could be a piece to build around, but they didn’t know he’d be a 25-point-per-game scorer, capable of carrying the franchise on his back better than expected. Had he not been sat for as many games down the stretch as he was, it’s likely the Jazz would have ended up in the play-in game.
He missed nine of the 12 final games, and the Jazz finished 37-45. Had he won, let’s say six games, that would put them at 43-39. They would’ve been in the Top 8 of the Western Conference and right smack dab a member of the Play-In Tournament. That’s how close they were to competing.
So Markkanen threw a monkey wrench into the proceedings and may have kicked off the team’s rebuild faster than expected. And now the franchise in a position where they have to decide to expedite the rebuild around Markkanen, stay the course, or trade away more assets and get worse.
Meaning this season has three distinct ways it can go; but what would those look like?
Best Case Scenario – Major trade, NBA Finals appearance
It’s entirely possible that the Utah Jazz sees how good the team is early on, and opts to take a big swing in the trade market for the right player. They’re a team that can ship out some young players and some picks and not worry about the long-term viability of the team. They’re still going to be able to add good, young talent in the draft.
So if they were to get a Luka Doncic or a Giannis Antetokounmpo type, then the Jazz would instantly be an NBA Finals contender. Either player would work really well around Lauri Markkanen, and assuming the team retains the likes of Walker Kessler and Jordan Clarkson in the deal, then the Jazz would remain a realistic threat to do some damage.
That said, it’s not like landing someone of that magnitude would be easy to do in the first place. And if it did happen, it’d really shake up the roster, meaning that the team would have to adapt to one another on the fly. That’s never an easy thing to do mid-season.
But as mentioned, this is the best-case scenario. Not the most realistic. So it’s okay to have pie-in-the-sky aspirations for the season every once in a while.
Worst Case Scenario – Another firesale of veterans, and a Top 10 draft pick
In either the best or worst-case scenario, you’re going to largely see the same thing; the team will trade Kelly Olynyk, Talen Horton-Tucker, probably Collin Sexton or Jordan Clarkson, and maybe someone else. But there are two key differences between scenarios.
The first is for whom and what they trade those players for. In scenario one, it’s an All-NBA caliber player, hopefully, a point guard or a point forward. In the second scenario, it’s likely a massive contract and several draft picks.
The other major difference is that the first scenario is about growth, while the second scenario is about draft picks. This means that the other major difference is that a guy like Lauri Markkanen is likely in play during the worst-case scenario.
In this scenario, anyone who is over 25, and has an expiring contract is likely to be dealt in a trade, thus instigating a full-on rebuild. And to further add to the “worst case” aspect, it’d likely be planned.
Instead of doing so out of necessity because the team is playing poorly, it’ll likely be done if the team is hovering around or above a winning record. Further driving the team into a prolonged rebuild that could take years to finish.
Most Likely Scenario – Winning Record, lower playoff seed
It doesn’t matter if you’re a fan of either scenario or afraid of either scenario, it isn’t likely to happen. It doesn’t make sense for a team like the Dallas Mavericks or Milwaukee Bucks to trade away their best player mid-season unless the team has absolutely fallen apart. And that just isn’t likely to happen.
Likewise, it’s fair to assume that Danny Ainge isn’t going to try and kill the franchise’s potential to compete this year if they can. They have something like 13 first-round draft picks over the next handful of years, It’s not like they can’t compete for the playoffs year in and year out, while also building for the future.
He did just that with the Boston Celtics. The year before Ainge drafted Jaylen Brown, they won 48 games, the year before they drafted Jayson Tatum, the Celtics won 53 games. Clearly, it’s possible to compete for the playoffs and draft young prospects who can help your club.
So it makes the most sense that that the Jazz will likely do everything they can to make the playoffs, short of making any huge trade involving draft picks. They may swap some contracts or sign some guys, but the goal for the year is to compete for the post-season, while also building up the future of the roster.