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Utah Jazz: Is rumored trade target Nikola Mirotic really a bad defender?

By Ryan Aston

AUBURN HILLS, MI - MARCH 6: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 of the Detroit Pistons drives to the basket as Nikola Mirotic #44 of the Chicago Bulls defends during the first half at the Palace of Auburn Hills on March 6, 2017 in Auburn Hills, Michigan. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)
AUBURN HILLS, MI - MARCH 6: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #5 of the Detroit Pistons drives to the basket as Nikola Mirotic #44 of the Chicago Bulls defends during the first half at the Palace of Auburn Hills on March 6, 2017 in Auburn Hills, Michigan. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images) /
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The line on rumored Utah Jazz trade target Nikola Mirotic has always been that he can put up points, but has little ability to defend. Is that fact, though, or fiction run amok?

This week, chatter among Utah Jazz fans has largely been centered on Chicago Bulls big man Nikola Mirotic. First it was rumored that Mirotic was intrigued by the notion of playing for Jazz coach Quin Snyder. Amid reports on Tuesday that the Jazz and Bulls are actually talking trade, Mirotic talk quickly reached critical mass.

Undoubtedly, the 26-year-old would match Utah’s roster in some important ways. His ability to stretch the floor, an improved aptitude for putting the ball on the floor and overall scoring ability would all fit nicely next to All-NBA center Rudy Gobert.

The big question as relates to dealing for Mirotic is his defense or, rather, a lack thereof.

But is Mirotic really cut from the Al Jefferson/Carlos Boozer cloth? Or are his defensive shortcoming vastly over-reported?

The pessimistic eye may see one thing, but several statistics seem to reveal something different entirely.

For instance, would you believe me if I told you that Mirotic was in the 95th percentile in half-court defense last season per Synergy? You should, because it’s true; Mirotic conceded just 0.77 points per possession when defending in the half-court last year.

I know what you’re thinking — that’s bananas. The Bulls were a different team last year with Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo on the perimeter while tough guy Taj Gibson joined Robin Lopez down low. He was clearly the weak link in a strong chain, right?

Maybe, except he continues to make a decent statistical showing for himself in several areas.

I looked at his efficacy this season in various situations and Mirotic shows a lot better than you would expect in many of them.

Here’s the rundown, per NBA.com —

  • Off the screen, he allows just .76 ppp, which puts him in the 84th percentile league-wide.
  • Defending spot-ups, his .89 ppp allowed is in the 73rd percentile.
  • On post-ups, he holds his man to .77 ppp; that mark hits the 69th percentile.
  • Finally, he concedes .88 ppp when defending in isolation. This one is more meager in the 52nd percentile, but still in the average range or slightly above.

Now, the one area of concern this season is screen-roll D, which probably comes as no surprise. This season, Mirotic has been burned to the tune of 1.29 and 1.45 ppp when defending the ball-handler and roll-man respectively.

We’re only talking about 10 percent of his overall defensive possessions on a 17-game sample size, but that’s bad. Still, he’s performed better statistically in defending the pick-and-roll in the past. And, on the whole, Mirotic is far from a matador where actually giving up points is concerned. Other statistical measures break his way as well.

Per defensive field goal percentage differential numbers, Mirotic is having a quantifiable effect on opposing shooters this season. On average, players guarded by Mirotic are making 4.5 percent fewer field goal attempts overall compared to their norms. On shots coming from 15 or more feet from the basket, the differential is 6.5 percent, which is pretty substantial.

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Player tracking statistics can be flawed, so I’m not going to use them to tell you Mirotic is an all-world defender. But they’re not to be dismissed out of hand either.

There’s also the fact that Mirotic currently has the second best D-rating on the Bulls right now, and that he’s registered a positive defensive real plus-minus every year he’s been in the league.

So while he may have been branded as “slow white guy” or “soft Euro” by some, the reality is more complex. In truth, he’s a smart team defender that understands positioning and has better hands and lateral movement than you think.

Is he Kevin Garnett out there? Not by a longshot, but can he help the Utah Jazz?

Absolutely…and maybe not just offensively.

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