Just three days after losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder in blowout fashion, the Utah Jazz look to even the score in their season series finale.
In Thursday’s victory over the San Antonio Spurs, the Utah Jazz trotted out a starting lineup of Ricky Rubio, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles, Jonas Jerebko and Derrick Favors. With the exception of the injured Donovan Mitchell, this is the lineup that took the Jazz on a six-game winning streak, and it looked like that fire returned against the Spurs.
The Jazz have been a two-headed monster this season. If one of those heads is an elite offensive team and the other is a NCAA Division II team. To have any hope of beating the Oklahoma City
Russell Westbrooks
Thunder this weekend, the Jazz will need to become the better of the two heads.
These are some of the keys to being that good version.
Key No. 1: Use the Vivint Smart home energy
The biggest factor here seems to be Home vs Away games. I didn’t bother to check any other variables such as back-to-backs or difficulty, but the Jazz have a road record of 3-13, equal to that of the team who owns the worst record in the NBA, the Atlanta Hawks.
The other is the incredible home road splits of the Jazz defense
— David Locke (@DLocke09) December 21, 2017
Home: #2 defensive team
Road: #26 defensive team
Jazz home/road DEFG% is the same 2/26 as well
Offensive numbers home and road are almost the exact same
Aside from a huge road win against Orlando (40-point victory) and an emotional road win in Boston, the Jazz have looked pretty lifeless playing away from SLC. Despite the old saying, “defense travels,” because it’s usually shooting woes on the road, the Jazz have had poor defensive energy all year in away games.
To cover up an embarrassing effort against the Thunder in OKC, the Jazz will need to play elite defense in front of the home crowd.
Key No. 2: Space the floor
Despite the projections of Utah having a bottom-five offense this season, the Jazz offense has been remarkably average on the surface. In reality, the offense has either been elite or atrocious, and the average puts the Jazz in the middle.
| Team | Opponent | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split | Value | G | W | L | FG | FGA | 3P | 3PA | FT | FTA | ORB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | FG | FGA | 3P | 3PA | FT | FTA | ORB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
| Result | Win | 15 | 15 | 0 | 40.8 | 83.2 | 13.4 | 30.7 | 15.1 | 18.8 | 8.9 | 43.9 | 24.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 13.3 | 19.5 | 110.1 | 33.7 | 79.7 | 8.9 | 26.6 | 15.7 | 20.9 | 8.9 | 40.0 | 16.9 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 16.1 | 19.2 | 92.0 |
| Loss | 18 | 0 | 18 | 34.4 | 81.6 | 10.0 | 29.4 | 16.5 | 20.6 | 8.1 | 37.4 | 18.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 15.2 | 20.4 | 95.3 | 39.6 | 81.1 | 10.6 | 25.9 | 18.1 | 22.9 | 8.7 | 45.4 | 21.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 15.2 | 20.8 | 107.8 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/22/2017.
You can see here that in wins, the Jazz put up an incredible 110.1 points per game and only 95.7 in losses. That’s a huge discrepancy. There are other factors we can analyze here such as 3.4 more 3-point makes in wins and nearly six more assists, but it comes down to the floor spacing.
With Jonas Jerebko as the starting power forward, you get the Jazz’s best starting lineup. The team has gone 7-4 with him spacing the floor and the offense has been out of this world.
Joe Johnson will get the backup power forward minutes behind Jerebko. Although he has struggled from the 3-point line this year (his wrist injury is certainly a factor there), he was 2-of-2 last night.
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With both JJ’s hitting 3-point shots, the offense should open up elsewhere and allow Utah’s wings like Rodney Hood, Alec Burks and, hopefully, Mitchell to get into the driving lanes.
Key No. 3: Make those 3-point shots
I already indicated that the Jazz make over 13 3-point shots per game in wins and only 10 in losses. As ever, it’s a make or miss league. In the last game against OKC (a whole three days ago), they only made 7-of-31.
There’s also a lot of factors at play here. First, OKC has a much more athletic team and is the second best defensive team in the league. They disrupted and contested shots and had the Jazz outmatched physically. David Locke goes into more detail on this in a recent podcast on Locked on Jazz:
LOCKED ON JAZZ https://t.co/YwKkyhGV9c - What happened in OKC and why? Have the Spurs broken the defensive cheat code? Your facebook live questions on Dante, Donovan Joe, Rubio and trades pic.twitter.com/LZ1OjQh5r7
— David Locke (@DLocke09) December 21, 2017
In the end, the Jazz will need to bring their home defensive energy, space the floor with the offense and hit some 3-point shots. It sounds simple, but it will take a huge effort to beat this Thunder team who is hitting their stride and playing with more confidence.
However, after the Jazz played two of the past three games against OKC in back-to-backs, the tables have turned and OKC is playing the second of a back-to-back set and I expect the Jazz to win by double digits.
Prediction: Jazz win 108-98