The Utah Jazz’s dreadful December is just around the corner and starting point guard Ricky Rubio continues to struggle. Is it Raul Neto time?
Let’s make this clear up front — I’m a Ricky Rubio fan. When the Utah Jazz made the move the acquire him last summer, I felt a whole lot better about the team’s chances to keep Gordon Hayward from hitting the road for Beantown or South Beach.
In hindsight, he was likely gone regardless of who the Jazz brought in. Still, having one of the game’s best creators on the squad seemed a nice consolation; at first anyway. After Utah’s first 19 games, though, Rubio looks like a mismatch of epic proportions for the roster. Which begs the question: is it Raul Neto time?
Over his last five games, Neto has enjoyed one of the better stretches of his young NBA career. He’s averaged 8.8 points and 3.4 assists per game during that span while ripping the nets to the tune of 59 percent from the field and 55 percent from 3-point range.
Meanwhile, Rubio has disappointed. Throughout his career, the word on the former No. 5 overall pick has been that he can’t shoot a lick, but that his passing, vision and ball-hawking abilities were otherworldly.
He hasn’t had those saving graces with the Jazz. Especially on offense.
Entering Friday’s games, Rubio is committing the eighth-most turnovers per game league-wide at a clip of 3.6 a night. It’s not just a volume thing either; Rubio is coughing up the rock on 16.8 percent of his possessions. That number is also a bottom 10 mark among players averaging just 16-plus minutes per contest.
He’s not finding people either. As a result, Rubio is rocking a 1.39 to one assist-to-turnover ratio. Not only is that the worst ratio of his career by a college mile, but it puts him in league with players like Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe.
All the while, Rubio’s shot has been as bad as ever. He’s hit on just over 37 percent of his shots this season, which is level with his low career number. And that improved 3-point shot that some observed during the second half of last season and EuroBasket play this fall is looking like a mirage.
Rubio is making just 26.9 percent of his 3-point shots; the second-lowest rate of his career.
As a result, the Jazz are getting outscored by four points per 100 possessions when Rubio is on the floor. When he’s off, the Jazz are six points positive by the same measure. Rubio, Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors have combined to obliterate Utah’s offensive spacing.
All the while, Neto has been one of the club’s on/off stars.
When Neto is in the game, the Jazz are outpacing the opposition by eight points/100 poss. They’re 1.3/100 in the negative when he’s on the bench. That’s a net swing of 9.3, which is the third-best on the team.
Of course, two questions loom large when you consider making this kind of change. Firstly, can Neto maintain those numbers with more minutes and against better players? And secondly, do you lose Rubio forever if you move him to the bench at this point?
The first one is easy for me. While his shooting numbers of late have ballooned, he already has a proven track record of being an effective floor-spacer and positive force as a starter.
During his rookie season (2015-16), Neto started 53 games out of necessity and averaged 11 points, 4.3 assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes. He also hit nearly 40 percent of his 3-point shots. Neto’s 2.6 net rating that year doesn’t jump off the stat sheet, but he was still positive. As a rookie, no less.
That’s something Rubio hasn’t yet managed in Utah.
More from The J-Notes
- With the FIBA World Cup over for Simone Fontecchio, it’s clear he deserves minutes for the Utah Jazz
- Best, Worst and Most likely scenarios for the Utah Jazz this season
- Hoops Hype downplays the significance of the Utah Jazz’s valuable assets
- 3 Utah Jazz players who have the most to gain or lose this season
- Former Utah Jazz forward Rudy Gay is a free agent still and it shouldn’t surprise anyone
What Jazz coach Quin Snyder would have to determine in promoting Neto is how it would affect Rubio psychologically. Would it be the thing that lights a fire under him and brings out a better effort? Snyder has already moved Rodney Hood to the bench and it seems to have worked wonders for him.
Or does Rubio then regress to the point where you have to move him when his value is at an all-time low?
In any event, I tend to believe that we’ve yet to see the best Rubio has to offer in Utah. Things don’t look great, but I’m not ready to scrap-heap such a talented player just yet.
On the flip-side, we’re at the season’s quarter point and Neto has been solid when he’s played. If the Jazz want to stay afloat in the West, they can’t afford to leave good resources untapped.