Probability is on the Utah Jazz’s Side Heading into Game 6

The numbers are on the Utah Jazz’s side to win their first-round playoff series, but Game 6 will likely still be very much a battle.

It’s hard to find the words to describe just how epic the first-round series between the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers has been. Believe it or not, it’s been so evenly-matched that both teams have scored an identical 495 combined points in the five games played so far. Neither team has yet to post a double-figure victory and the average margin of victory has been 5.2.

In other words, this series has been just about as close as it gets. All five games have come down to the wire and truly the difference between victory and defeat has been just a handful of plays. It just goes to show how valuable each and every possession and defensive stand is in the playoffs.

However, as close as everything has been so far, the Utah Jazz were able to take Game 5 in LA and thus find themselves in the driver’s seat with a 3-2 lead over the Clippers. Now they will head back home to Salt Lake City where they’ll have an opportunity to close out the series on their home court on Friday.

And with that being the case, the Jazz are in good shape from a probability standpoint given that historically in the NBA, the winner of Game 5 in a series tied at two games apiece has gone on to win the overall series 85 percent of the time.

Thus, that in itself puts the Jazz in a great position to advance to the second round. Combine that statistic with the fact that Utah will play Game 6 on their home court and it seems all the more likely that they’ll have the confidence and energy to come away victorious there.

Beyond the historical numbers, according to FiveThirtyEight the Utah Jazz currently have a 77 percent chance of advancing to the Conference Semi-Finals. Beyond that it’s interesting to note that the Jazz have just an eight percent chance of advancing to the Western Conference Finals. From there, their chances don’t drop all that much as they then have a five percent chance to make it to the Finals and a four percent chance to win the NBA Championship.

Of course, the reason for the steep drop-off between winning the current series and advancing beyond that, as well as the minuscule drop-off following the West Semis, is the fact that Utah would have to get past Golden State in the next round in order to advance. Considering that Golden State is currently listed as having a mammoth 70 percent chance of winning the title, those figures come as little surprise.

Returning to the task at hand against the Clippers, though, according to ESPN’S BPI Predictions, the Utah Jazz have a 75 percent chance of winning the series, which includes a 63 percent chance of winning in Game 6. However, currently Utah has just a 13 percent chance of winning the series in a potential Game 7, whereas LA has a 25 percent chance.

If the Clippers end up being able to steal Game 6 in Salt Lake and force a seventh Game at Staples Center, one would have to think that these projections would change dramatically, and would very well end up favoring the Clippers over the Jazz.

Therefore, although the numbers may favor the Jazz right now, they still have to make them come to fruition by coming out strong and taking care of business in Game 6. There’s no doubt that Vivint Smart Home Arena will be rocking and Utah has to capitalize on that energy and build off the momentum from the Game 5 win.

Of course Utah enjoyed enormous support on their home court in Game 3 as well, but still fell short to the Clippers due largely to a fourth quarter collapse that saw Chris Paul take over. Although Utah has proven to have more talent as a unit and certainly more depth than LA, most would consider Chris Paul the most gifted player in the series.

Therefore, with his proven ability to take over for his team and carry them on his back, the Jazz will have to be wary of LA’s star point guard and find a way to slow him down along with the rest of his teammates.

Fortunately, the Jazz have had a clutch guy of their own to rely on who has done his fair share of shouldering the load for the Jazz when it’s mattered most as well. You all know who I’m talking about -the ever incredible, awe-inspiring Joe Johnson.

Not only did Johnson hit the game winner in Game 1, but he scored 11 straight points during crunch time to push the Jazz to victory in Game 4 and he had an absolute dagger in the waning seconds of Game 5 that essentially would go on to win the game for Utah. I’ve included the video to that shot below for your viewing pleasure:

Johnson has been absolutely phenomenal for the Jazz so far this postseason as he is shooting an absurd 80 percent (8-of-10) in the clutch for the Utah Jazz. That’s the best percentage of any player in this year’s NBA Playoffs who has taken at least four shots in clutch time (interestingly Rodney Hood is second with a 75 percent, 3-of-4 clip).

However, LA’s Chris Paul isn’t far behind as he’s converted on 8-of-13 (61.5 percent) of clutch shots as well.

Therefore, as much as numbers and probability may very well favor the Jazz right now, the fact that each and every game in this series has been so close is indicative that Game 6 truly could go either way. It felt as if Utah was in control for much of Game 5, but their inability to hit several of their good looks allowed the Clippers to stay close.

The Jazz hoisted up 36 threes and though they converted at a respectable 36.1 percent clip, that still left them with 23 shots missed from behind the arc, many of which were wide open looks. Utah also went through a major scoring drought in the third quarter and produced just 18 points in the period. That sequence could have proven extremely costly had the Clippers not had an even more dismal quarter which saw them put up just 15 points.

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Utah has truly looked like the better team on several occasions in this series, but a few lapses throughout the contests has prevented them from ever building a significantly large lead or truly taking control.

Thus the Jazz will have to control the tempo, maintain a strong and efficient rhythm on offense and perhaps most importantly, sink the good looks that weren’t falling in Game 5 if they hope to truly prove probability correct and come away with a statement close-out win in Game 6.

It certainly won’t be easy, but at least the odds are in Utah’s favor.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com unless otherwise indicated.