Despite some struggles in recent contests, the Utah Jazz should be able to even up their record on their current road trip to 2-2 with a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.
After a two-game skid, the Utah Jazz will now head into what should be a much easier contest in the fourth game of their five-game road trip as they’ll take on the Minnesota Timberwolves. This season continues to be a real struggle for the Wolves as they’re just 11-25 on the year and currently find themselves in last place in the Western Conference.
They’ll come into Saturday’s game on a three-game losing streak which included a heartbreaker to the dismal Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday. Minnesota continues to be challenged by a lack of depth and has had a hard time scoring and rebounding consistently.
Nevertheless, their trio of Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine continues to be very effective as each is averaging 22.3, 21.5 and 20.7 points, respectively. They are talented enough in and of themselves that they have the potential to surprise teams caught unaware, especially if their role players can have a rare hot night.
And while one would think that the Jazz would enjoy a significant advantage coming off a day of rest while the Wolves will be playing in the second night of a back-to-back, surprisingly the Wolves have played some of their best basketball on games without a day of rest beforehand.
They’re 4-2 on the second night of back-to-backs this season and in those games are averaging 111.5 points while shooting 47.9 percent from the field and 40.3 percent from deep. Perhaps the young legs of the Timberwolves just get more warmed up when playing in consecutive games instead of getting fatigued, because it’s pretty impressive that they’ve put up that kind of numbers in games where you’d figure that they’d be worn down and slow.
So while it’s expected that the Jazz will bounce back and grab a win in tonight’s contest, they’ll still have to be ready against a team that’s capable of surprising opponents with its collective speed and athleticism. Utah will need to play a complete game and particularly focus on the following key areas if they hope to come out on top.
Key Match-up – Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns
The last time these two teams faced off, I pinned Gordon Hayward and Andrew Wiggins as the key match-up and it was a contest that Hayward thoroughly dominated. He logged 24 points, half of which came on free throws as he was able to attack Wiggins and the Wolves relentlessly to get to the line and put up easy points for the Jazz.
Wiggins, meanwhile, was held to just 13 points on 6-of-16 shooting, well below his season average. Hayward’s ability to win the match-up and contain Wiggins was one of the main contributors to the Jazz victory.
But the match-up that was the most enjoyable to watch and perhaps the one that was most impressive was the battle between Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, which I’ve slotted as the key match-up this time around.
Towns is a capable scorer and can handle and shoot the ball in a way that is quite uncommon for a seven-footer. However, while he was still able to end last game with 19 points, Rudy made his life miserable all night long as the up-and-coming big man shot just 8-of-19 from the field and simply looked uncomfortable against the Stifle Tower.
Therefore, as Utah hopes to once again shut down the Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy’s impact on Towns will likely be a deciding factor. Rudy was spectacular beyond just his defense on Towns the last time these two teams met as he finished with 16 points and 17 rebounds of his own and I fully expect him to put up a similar performance.
Key Stat – Fast Break Points
In the last meeting between the Wolves and Jazz, one of the stats that really jumped off the page was fast break points as the Wolves outscored the Jazz in that category 13 to 7. Although the T-Wolves aren’t one of the top fast break scoring teams in the league as they rank 16th in the NBA at 12.6 per game, Utah can’t allow a young team that thrives on momentum to get easy buckets in transition.
Minnesota has several high-octane athletes in the likes of Wiggins, LaVine and even Towns who can run the floor extremely well. And while the Timberwolves most certainly don’t have the firepower as a team to straight up match the Jazz, if they’re allowed to get some momentum and confidence rolling, that’s when they become a dangerous opponent.
In their wins this season, the Timberwolves are averaging 14.5 fast break points, while also taking significant advantage of opponents’ miscues with 19.4 points off turnovers. These are exactly the kinds of opportunities that Utah will need to take away if they hope to maintain the upper hand.
The Jazz certainly aren’t that effective of a fast break team as they prefer to play more of a half court set offense. In fact, Utah is second to last in the league with just 7.4 fast break points per game.
This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as the Jazz tend to choose to select solid defense and a controlled offense over gambling for steals and trying to push when a shot is not there, but still it would be nice if they were able to take advantage of a few more freebies throughout their games.
Yet while it isn’t likely that Utah will top a fast-paced Minnesota team in total fast break points scored, as long as the Jazz are able to reduce their mistakes and make the Timberwolves work for nearly every shot they take, then there’s no reason why Utah’s suffocating D can’t stop their opponent from ever finding a true rhythm.
Key Performer – Gordon Hayward
Gordon Hayward was the top dog for the Jazz the last time these two teams met and while Wiggins is an athletic player, he isn’t exactly a renowned defender. Hayward took advantage of his opponent’s lack of defensive prowess last time to lead his team in scoring (tied with Hill) and I fully expect him to be able to do so again.
As our very own Ryan Aston recently pointed out, although the two most recent losses were frustrating, Hayward was at least a bright point in both games as he shot a highly efficient 50 percent from the field in both contests and averaged 19.5 points, just shy of his season average, over the course of the two-game slide.
Related Story: Utah Jazz: Five Silver Linings From the Two-Game Skid
Thus as Utah looks to contend against a much less daunting team with point guard play that doesn’t hold a candle to what Boston and Toronto are capable of rolling out, it’s very likely that they’ll be able to get a win especially if Hayward is able to outmatch Wiggins and have a big game.
Prediction – Jazz 101, Timberwolves 87
The Jazz managed to squeeze out a nine-point victory over the Wolves the last time the two teams met, though the game was actually quite close throughout the contest before Utah sealed the deal in the fourth.
Jazz 112, T-Wolves 103
— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) November 29, 2016
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Although they’re coming in off of two straight losses, likely won’t have George Hill this time around and are in their fourth game of a five-game road trip, I expect the Jazz to be well prepared and able to down a Minnesota team that, quite honestly, with a 11-25 record has been downright awful this season.
They will of course need to keep Minnesota’s young “Big Three” in check and also prevent them from getting their offense rolling in transition, but if they do so, I feel quite comfortable with my prediction of a 14-point victory that I made earlier in the week.
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And Utah could certainly use a win to get back to 2-2 on the road trip and to have some confidence and momentum on their side before playing in the second night of a back-to-back at Memphis, who just pulled off an incredible comeback win last night against the Golden State Warriors.
Utah’s next game will certainly be tougher than their contest tonight against the Timberwolves, but if they hope to have any chance of using that game to help them finish the road trip with a winning record, they’ll have to begin by taking care of business tonight in Minnesota.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com