Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors: Keys to the Game

As the Utah Jazz prepare to take on the Toronto Raptors in their third contest of a five-game road slate, they’re in danger of falling to 1-2 on the trip so far.

It wasn’t long ago that the Utah Jazz took on the Toronto Raptors in the friendly confines of Vivint Smart Home Arena and unfortunately fell by a score of 104-98. Without George Hill in action, the Raptors star point guard, Kyle Lowry, was able to have a field day as he exploded for 36 points on 15-of-20 shooting while scoring or creating 25 of Toronto’s 32 fourth quarter points.

It was a disappointing defeat which saw Utah miss out on a chance to prove themselves against an elite Eastern Conference opponent.

However, the Raptors are in a bit of a slump lately as they’ve lost three of their last four contests. Yet while the recent loss to Phoenix was a bad one, their three-game slide doesn’t look so bad considering that two of those losses came at the hands of the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs.

Nevertheless, the Raptors did just finish up a grueling six-game road stretch and often times that first home game back after such a trip can feel a lot like a road game in and of itself, so hopefully Utah can catch Toronto off guard a little bit and steal a win on the road.

It will be a tough task, though, as Toronto boasts the second most efficient offense in the league and arguably the best backcourt duo in the Eastern Conference in Lowry and DeRozan. There’s no official word yet on whether George Hill will be suiting back up for tomorrow’s game, but having him active to check Lowry would make a world of difference for a Jazz team who sorely missed him last night.

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There’s no soft way to put it, the Jazz are in for a struggle tomorrow night unless they can drastically pick their game up from what we’ve seen over the last few weeks. With no wins over a team with a winning record since December 18th and some nail biters against less than daunting opponents, Utah hasn’t looked great of late.

Nevertheless, a win tomorrow would be a huge confidence booster and help them to prove once again that they are an elite threat that can compete with the top teams in the league. If they hope to do just that, they’ll have to really focus in on these key areas.

Key Match-up – Rodney Hood and DeMar DeRozan

The last time these two teams met, I slated Gordon Hayward and DeMarre Carroll as the key match-up. Hayward certainly won the battle, finishing with 23 points on 8-of-16 shooting compared to Carroll’s two points on 1-of-6 shooting, but unfortunately Utah still lost the war.

And while Lowry will likely be the key guy that Utah needs to shut down, without knowing Hill’s status, it’s hard to pin that contest as the key match-up. However, if Hill was for sure active it most certainly would be. After essentially shutting Lowry down in a playoff series against Toronto last year as a member of the Pacers, Hill is extremely familiar with this team.

But if Hill is sidelined once again, then rather than there being a key match-up at the point guard spot, the Raptors will simply enjoy a huge advantage at the position.

Therefore, I felt it fitting to focus instead on the other half of Toronto’s dynamic duo, DeMar DeRozan, and a Jazzman who really needs to step it up, Rodney Hood.

DeRozan is currently averaging 27.5 points per game and is shooting a career high from the field at 47.3 percent. Unfortunately for the Raptors, he’s also been awful from behind the arc, converting on just 24.5 percent of his attempts. He’s always been known as more of a mid-range guy, but still, that low of a three-ball percentage is awful for an NBA shooting guard.

Therefore, Rodney Hood and his fellow teammates will need to do their best to prevent DeRozan from getting easy looks as a result of attacking the basket or finding his spots inside the arc. If they can force him into difficult shots and tempt him into trying to force up threes, it will likely provide a significant advantage for the Jazz defense.

And on offense, the Jazz could use a significant boost from Hood. In my personal opinion, Hood has been one of the most frustrating Jazz players this season. When he’s on, the Jazz seem to roll, but when he’s off, it sends the entire Utah offense into a funk.

I realize he’s just a third-year player and some of that inconsistency is to be expected, but he’s fully shown what he’s capable of on many occasions and it would be nice to see him live up to that more often. Although he was dealing with sickness the last time the Jazz and the Raptors met, he finished with just two points on 1-of-6 shooting.

In Hood’s last two games he’s shot just over 30 percent from the field and wasn’t really a force to be reckoned with. He’s shot less than 32 percent in six of his last eight games, so if he hopes to keep up with DeRozan, he’ll need to be much more efficient in Thursday’s contest. He’s way overdue for a bounce back game and Utah could certainly use one from him tomorrow.

Key Stat – Points off Turnovers

As I mentioned earlier, the Raptors boast the second most efficient offense in the league as Golden State just recently surpassed them in that statistical category this week. A key reason why they’ve been able to put together such an efficient offense has been their ability to force turnovers and, even more so, their ability to capitalize on them.

Toronto is third in the league at forcing turnovers as their opponents are averaging 15.8 per game. The Raptors then excel at turning those miscues into points as they lead the league in points off turnovers at 19.4 per contest.

Given that in their wins this season the Raptors are beating their opponents by an average of 13.7 points per game, that 19.4 generated off of turnovers is obviously a significant contributing factor.

And Utah, unfortunately, has not done a good job of taking care of the ball, especially without George Hill running the point. Utah is 14th in the league at 13.6 turnovers per game and those turnovers are costing them an average of 15.6 points per contest.

The Jazz have done a little bit better at controlling turnovers of late as they’ve posted just 9.5 per game in their last two bouts and they’ll have to repeat that kind of performance again tomorrow against the Raptors if they hope to win.

On the opposite end of the floor, Utah hasn’t been great at forcing turnovers all year and are fourth to last in the league in points off turnovers themselves.

Thus, given their style of play, it’s not likely that the Jazz will flat out beat the Raptors in this category, but if they can at least hold them in check by allowing as few easy chances off of turnovers as possible, it could take away one of Toronto’s main points of attack on offense.

Key Performer – Gordon Hayward

Gordon Hayward was the leading guy for the Jazz the last time these two teams met and I fully expect him to do the same this time around. And while the Jazz looked thoroughly outmatched in last night’s loss to Boston, Hayward was one of the few bright points as he finished with 23 points on 50 percent shooting from the field.

He’s consistently been Utah’s best player and has logged 20 points or more in six of Utah’s last seven contests. While Carroll is reputed as a tough defender, Hayward was able to have his way against him last time around and all recent signs indicate that he is plenty capable of maintaining those kind of performances.

Given that the Jazz will be going up against two big-time scorers in DeRozan and Lowry as well as the fact that George Hill could very well be out once again, Utah will have to rely on Hayward to have a big game to match the opponent and pick up the slack if the Jazz are to have any chance of winning against such a strong Raptors team.

Prediction – Toronto 110, Utah 98

In my preview from earlier in the week where I took a look at the contests Utah was in for over the course of this five-game road trip, I slotted the Raptors as winners in a close contest.

However, over the course of the last eight games, the Jazz have not impressed me much at all and last night’s struggle against the Celtics appeared to be more of the same. Although the Raptors are in a bit of a slump, now that they’re back on their home court where they play exceptionally well, I expect them to come out angry and ready to down what has been an inconsistent Jazz team.

Therefore, I’ve changed my prediction slightly from what I had before, notching Toronto as 12-point winners rather than fighting their way to a narrow four-point victory.

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Per the usual, upon predicting a loss, I certainly hope that I’m wrong. If Utah can get back to being the team that defeated both the Thunder and Grizzlies in the same week, then I’m fully confident that they can top a Raptors team that, like the Jazz, has struggled against elite teams this season.

However, if Utah continues to struggle to put together a complete game as they have recently, then their efforts likely won’t be enough to defeat Toronto. Of course, having George Hill back would provide a significant boost, but regardless of if he plays or not, Utah will be hard-pressed to steal a road victory in this one.

Therefore, it’s with a bit of regret but perhaps a bit of ugly truth that I’m picking the Raptors to win tomorrow’s contest against a Jazz team that can’t quite seem to right the ship.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com