Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game

The Utah Jazz will be in for a tough road contest tonight as they take on the Memphis Grizzlies in a bout for fifth place in the Western Conference.

Coming into the end of November and the beginning of December, one look at the Utah Jazz’s schedule told you that they had a great opportunity to boost their record by taking advantage of a combination of playing several games at home and going up against a number of lackluster opponents. All they would need to do is simply take care of business.

The Jazz came into the home game against the Denver Nuggets on November 23rd with a less than stirring 7-8 record. But since hitting that aforementioned slate of games, they have exploded, winning ten of their last twelve to jump all the way up to a 17-10 record.

If that’s not a textbook definition of taking care of business, I don’t know what is.

But unfortunately, the going will soon get a little tougher as Utah will be back on the road this evening to take on a tough Memphis Grizzlies team that certainly is no pushover. The Jazz fell to the Grizzlies in Salt Lake in mid-November by a score of 102-96 in what would be the first loss of a rough four-game losing streak.

However, Utah has gotten healthier since then and has seemed to correct a lot of the nagging problems that hurt them in that game, especially on the offensive end. It appears that the Jazz will still be without George Hill for the contest, but hopefully Dante Exum and Shelvin Mack can continue to show improvement as they have in the past handful of games.

Over the last two games, Exum is averaging 9.5 points per game while shooting nearly 64 percent from the floor. In Friday’s win over the Mavericks, Exum finished +12 in the contest, the highest mark on the team, and looked much like the lockdown defender that he became known for as a rookie.

Shelvin Mack has also been playing better of late as he has averaged 13 points over the last two games and 12.2 over the last six. He was a perfect 3-of-3 from deep in the win against OKC and has racked up five or more assists in four of the last six contests. Mack also did an exceptional job containing Russell Westbrook and finished +20 for the game.

It’s been encouraging to see both of Utah’s reserve point guards logging more productive minutes and the Jazz will need them both at their best in the game against Memphis especially considering that the previously injured Mike Conley made his return to the lineup in last night’s loss to Sacramento.

Conley struggled to find his shot as he went just 28.6 percent from the field, but his current stat line of 18.6 points per game on 43.6 percent field goal shooting and 45.2 percent from deep are much more indicative of the kind of player he is. As he adjusts back to the game following his injury, I expect similar results out of him, so Utah will need to shut him down if they hope to win.

And while Memphis lost a surprising one last night to the Sacramento Kings, they were able to go 7-2 without Conley and certainly can’t be underestimated. If Utah hopes to come away with the win, they’ll have to play a very buttoned up game especially in the following areas.

Key Match-up: Rudy Gobert and Marc Gasol

While it’s taken a team effort for the Grizzlies to climb from a slow start to a now impressive 18-10 record and the fifth place spot in the West, if there’s one man who’s truly shouldered the load it’s been Marc Gasol.

Gasol is certainly making a case for best center in the league as he has been one of the best two-way players in the NBA and the driving force behind Memphis’ success. He’s averaging 19.8 points on 45.9 percent field goal shooting. But what’s perhaps most surprising and impressive is that the big man is converting on 43.6 percent of his attempts from long range.

Before this season, he had never averaged more than 0.2 three-point attempts per game, but this year Gasol has added the deep ball to his offensive arsenal and is excelling at it in a big way. This will certainly provide a challenge for the Jazz’s young center, Rudy Gobert, who’s working on a case of his own as the most formidable player at his position in the league as well.

Gobert isn’t the scoring or shooting threat that Gasol is, but he does lead the league in field goal shooting percentage at 67.7 percent and is currently averaging 12 points per game on the season and 16.8 over his last six games. It’s safe to say that Gobert is improving at catching and finishing around the rim and as his teammates come to trust him more and more, his offensive game is becoming all the more dominant.

He also has a dramatic advantage over Gasol on the boards where he averages 11.6 rebounds per game compared to Gasol’s surprisingly low 6.3 per game. Both are solid defenders but Gobert enjoys an edge in plus/minus, rim protection and blocks per game.

Thus this bout has all the looks of being a battle of two giants as Gobert’s defense will be greatly tested as will Gasol’s ability to maintain his high level of offensive play. With both players playing so well of late and both providing the edge that has allowed their respective teams to succeed, you can expect that whoever wins this key match-up will put their squad in a great spot to win the game.

Key Stat – Three-Point Percentage

The Utah Jazz are currently one of the top teams in the league at three-point shooting as they are converting on 36.8 percent of their shot attempts from deep. The Grizzlies on the other hand rank near the bottom of the NBA at 32.9 percent. However, you would have never known that based on the first meeting between these two teams.

In that game, the Grizzlies finished well above that average, connecting on 38.1 percent of their three-balls while the Jazz struggled mightily, knocking in just 28.6 percent. That lack of three-point shooting that has typically been strong for Utah was a key reason why they lost the game by a narrow six-point margin.

Thus if Utah can get back to their typical hot hand from behind the arc, they should enjoy a clear advantage in this department. However, it should be noted that while Memphis isn’t exactly a prolific three-point shooting team, they are great at keeping other teams from scoring on the perimeter.

A big reason why the Jazz shot so poorly in the previous meeting was because the Grizzlies happen to be the fifth best perimeter defending team in the league, meaning that it will be a difficult task for Utah to overcome a gritty defense that prides itself in making life difficult from beyond the arc.

The looks won’t be easy for the Jazz, but they’ll have to find a way to get them to fall.

Key Performer – Rodney Hood

Surprisingly, the last time these two squads met, it was Joe Ingles who was the leading performer for the Jazz as he started in place of the injured Rodney Hood and absolutely lit it up. Ingles finished with a then career-high 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the field and four made three-pointers.

While Ingles has continually played well since then and could very well have another big game in tonight’s contest, now that the Jazz are getting closer to being fully healthy and Ingles will come off the bench, I predict that the guy that he replaced last time around, Rodney Hood, will be the one to step up in this contest.

Hood certainly stepped up in a big way in Friday’s contest against the Mavs as he was the one that hit the game winner with 0.8 seconds left to send the Jazz to a too close for comfort victory.

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And while the Grizzlies are a solid defensive team, their best perimeter defender, Tony Allen, will more than likely be matched up against Gordon Hayward which will leave rookie Troy Williams, who has been starting in place of the injured Chandler Parsons, to contain Hood.

And with the crucial role Hood has played on this Jazz offense so far this year, it’s likely that he will be able to catch fire against the Grizzlies inexperienced rookie.

Prediction – Jazz 94, Grizzlies 88

Earlier in the week, I picked the Grizzlies as winners of this contest in a close, hard-fought affair. At the time, they had recently come off a convincing win over the Golden State Warriors and were playing as well as any team in the league.

Yet, the Grizzlies have apparently cooled off since then as they’ve lost two of their last three contests and struggled to defeat the Cavaliers who were resting their big 3. This certainly has been an up and down season for the Grizzlies so it’s hard to say which team is going to show up on any given night.

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But given their recent mini-slump and considering that the Jazz have been rolling of late, I’m going to go ahead and change my prediction from before and instead give Utah the upper hand in this contest by a slim 94-88 margin.

It would be a significant victory for the Jazz. After defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, Utah took sole possession of sixth place in the West. Since the Grizzlies lost to the Kings on Friday night, Utah now has the opportunity to move up yet another spot into fifth place with a win against Memphis tomorrow.

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You can be sure that the Grizzlies are aware of this, too, and will be looking to keep hold of their position in the conference as well as bounce back from the disappointing loss in their previous game. It will likely be a tense game that will feel a great deal like a playoff atmosphere between two teams that could potentially meet in the postseason.

And while the Jazz were upended in the first meeting between these two opponents, their improved play and health since then have me feeling confident that Utah’s latest hot streak will continue rolling despite a tough road contest this evening.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com