Based on how well the Utah Jazz have been playing of late, they should have no trouble dispatching a dismal Dallas Mavericks team that has struggled mightily on the road this season.
Well, Utah Jazz fans, this five-game road stint has been fun while it lasted, but unfortunately the Jazz will be playing the fifth and final game of the stretch on Friday night as they take on the Dallas Mavericks, before they return to action on the road.
It’s been a fun stretch as Utah has won each of the games with exception to the contest against Golden State in which the Jazz were down four starters. On a wider scale, Utah has won nine of their last 11, with seven of those wins coming on their home court.
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But with a pair of tough road games coming up after Friday’s contest and a long trip to kick off the new year, this game against the Mavericks will be an important one for the Jazz to take care of business and get a win to further pad their record.
It was all Utah the last time these two teams met as the Jazz rolled to a convincing 91-87 victory despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back. In hindsight, that win is a little less impressive given that through 25 games the Mavericks currently are tied for the worst record in the league, but nonetheless, this is a squad that Utah has struggled with in the past so it was good to see them get the win.
The Mavs have some highly talented and experienced players on their team and a well-respected coach, however they have struggled with a slew of injuries and several inconsistencies that have made life miserable for them as they’ve fallen into a hole of 13 games below .500.
Harrison Barnes has been the team’s leading scorer at an impressive 20.4 points per game, but the fact that he is their lead man speaks for itself as to why this team is where they’re at in the standings. With an extreme lack of depth and not enough consistent talent, this Mavs team is hardly a shell of the championship team it once was.
Nevertheless, complacency can be a team’s biggest enemy in the NBA, so if Utah hopes to secure a win and take a 2-0 lead in the series, they’ll need to be sure to take care of business in the following areas.
Key Match-up: Gordon Hayward and Harrison Barnes
As I mentioned previously, Harrison Barnes has been far and above the Mavericks’ most reliable offensive weapon. Now that he no longer has to hide behind the likes of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green from his former Warriors team, he’s showing that he indeed can shine on his own.
Unfortunately he’s doing so on an absolutely dismal team. The Mavs’ record comes as no surprise when considering that they rank dead last in the NBA in points and rebounds and second to last in assists. Part of this may have to do with the fact that Dallas plays at a dreadfully slow pace (as of December 16th, they average an even slower pace than the Jazz) but the fact remains that this team struggles to be effective.
And though Dallas ranks seventh in the league in opponent points per game, they come in at just 22nd in defensive efficiency meaning that their slow pace has more to do with them holding opponents to low scoring outputs than their actual defense.
And while Barnes is himself a good defender, he’ll be hard pressed to keep up with Gordon Hayward who is averaging an impressive 22.9 points per game this season. There’s no way Barnes will be able to contain him by himself and being matched up against such a lackluster defense should give Hayward a clear advantage.
He had a bit of an off night in Utah’s big win over OKC on Wednesday, missing all four of his three-point attempts and scoring under 20 points for his first time in ten games, but he did still shoot 50 percent from the field. Nevertheless, Hayward appeared a bit flustered in that game as a few shots and whistles didn’t quite go his way, so I’m expecting a big game out of him as he looks to bounce back.
And if he can get back to performing at a level that saw him log a 26.7-point average over his ten games prior to the contest against the Thunder, he should easily be able to shred this Mavericks defense and win the battle against Barnes.
Key Stat – Assists
I’ve said before that if energy were a stat, it could be a key indicator of a win or loss. However, it is in fact not currently a measurable stat in the NBA, so I’ll go with the next best thing, assists. When a team is moving the ball and getting good passes that lead to open looks, it more than likely means they’re playing with energy.
In Utah’s win over the Thunder, the Jazz dominated at moving the ball, logging an incredible 22 assists compared to OKC’s 14. That’s particularly impressive given that the Jazz rank just one spot in the league rankings above the Mavericks for assists per game at 19.3.
If the Jazz want to come out and get a big win against the Mavericks, they’ll need to continue that impressive ball movement and thrive off the energy that comes from it. The Mavs are currently a dismal 1-11 on the road, thus Utah should utilize their home court advantage to its full potential.
If they can get some energy flowing from the home crowd and rack up a significant number of assists like they did against OKC, Utah should once again defeat Dallas in stirring fashion.
Key Performer – Rodney Hood
It was George Hill who was the key performer the last time these two teams met as he put in a solid 25 points to lead all scorers. With Hill still sidelined with a sprained toe for the contest, I expect Rodney Hood, who wasn’t far behind Hill last time these two teams met, to pick up the slack and have a big game of his own.
While Wesley Matthews is a respectable defender, for the most part the Mavs are short on defense at the shooting guard position, meaning that Hood should be in good shape to put on a show.
After missing two straight games with a strained hamstring, Hood didn’t appear to miss a beat in his return to action against the Thunder as he made OKC pay severely with his hot hand, especially in the first half. He finished the game with 25 points on 64.3 percent shooting and five made threes.
Given the similarities in defensive personnel between Dallas and OKC, the Mavs should have an equally tough time stopping Hood, which means I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a similar performance now that he’s back from injury and looking solid.
Prediction – Jazz 108, Mavericks 88
The Utah Jazz seem to have a mini-trend going of beating their opponents by twenty points as they’ve now done so twice in a row, so I’m going to tweak my prediction from earlier in the week just slightly to match that trend. Originally I had the Jazz winning by 16, but a third straight 20-point victory sounds pretty good to me.
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The Jazz have certainly played like 20-point favorites in both of their latest victories and in many of their recent wins before that. I suppose the Jazz could get caught napping as they look ahead to their two-game road trip against the Grizzlies and Warriors, but beyond that I really don’t see a scenario where Utah loses this game to Dallas.
Based on how well they’ve been playing and in how many areas they outmatch the Mavs, it simply seems more than likely that Utah will roll to a convincing victory.
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And it’s a win they’ll most definitely need to cap off the five-game home stint as it’s back on the road and to a much tougher schedule in the weeks ahead. The Jazz have managed to barrel up the standings thanks to a favorable schedule of late, but after taking care of business against Dallas on Friday night, they’ll have to prove that they truly belong among the top teams in the West moving forward.