Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game

With George Hill sidelined once again, the Utah Jazz will have their hands full as they take on Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

With the Oklahoma City Thunder loss last night to the Portland Trail Blazers, OKC and the Utah Jazz are now in a deadlock for sixth place in the Western Conference as both share a 15-10 record. While there will still be plenty of basketball left after this one single game, the fact that the winner of the contest will move into sole possession of the sixth spot with a one-game lead makes it seem all the more important.

The Jazz have been hot lately as they’ve won eight of their last ten despite dealing with significant injury woes. However, as our very own Hayden Van de Maat reported earlier today, there is a great deal of good news concerning Utah’s improving health, perhaps most notably that Derrick Favors is reportedly returning tonight albeit on a minutes restriction.

Nevertheless, the Jazz will still be going into tonight’s contest a little banged up as several players are listed as questionable or out for the game as you can see in the injury report below:

With George Hill out and Dante Exum listed as questionable, I’m having a bit of PTSD to the point guard woes of last season where the Jazz had to rely on the likes of Shelvin Mack and Raul Neto to carry them against some of the league’s elite point guards.

If that is the case tonight, as it appears very much that it will be, it couldn’t have come at a worse time as Utah will be matched up against one of, if not the, most prolific point guard in the league in Russell Westbrook.

Luckily, the trend for teams facing OKC this season has been “shut down Westbrook and you shut down the Thunder” as was clearly evident in the Blazers’ statement win last night. While the absences of Exum and Hill will certainly make that a much more difficult task, if other guys, including the two-guards who will likely get a stab at defending Westbrook, can step it up and contain him, the Jazz will have a great shot at winning.

Key Match-up – Whoever Starts at PG and Russell Westbrook

My apologies for being vague, but with so many injuries turning the Jazz’s starting lineup into a constant carousel, it’s hard to know who we’ll be seeing get the nod in tonight’s action. Nevertheless, with Russell Westbrook shouldering such a load and playing such a key role in the success of this Thunder team, there’s no doubt that whoever is matched up against him the most will provide the game’s key match-up.

By no means do I expect the likes of Mack or Neto to flat out win this match-up by out-playing or out-scoring Westbrook; very few opposing point guards are able to do that. But this match-up can be swung in Utah’s favor if those guys will simply contain Westbrook and cause him to have an inefficient night.

While Russell Westbrook’s strengths vastly outnumber his weaknesses (I mean, come on, the guy is averaging a triple-double this season), he’s certainly not without his faults. Principal among these are his erratic shooting and his tendency to turn the ball over.

Although Westbrook is putting up 30.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 10.8 assists per game on the season so far, he’s also shooting a less than stirring 42.6 percent from the field and 32.1 percent from deep while coughing up the ball an average of 5.6 times per game.

Therefore, the Jazz have to make it a point of emphasis to force him into bad shots and also have active hands to pressure him into making unwise plays and passes.

Even if they do that, a dominant player like Westbrook is still going to find a way to score, but if they can hold him in check so that he scores under 25 points, shoots under 40 percent and coughs up the ball at least a handful of times, they’ll be well on their way to slowing this team as a whole by essentially cutting off the head of the snake.

The Blazers did essentially just that as they held Westbrook to 20 points, six rebounds, six assists and a field goal percentage of 36.8 percent in their 114-95 win last night and kept him flustered throughout the contest.

And with OKC coming into Salt Lake on the second night of a back-to-back, the Jazz can only hope that perhaps Westbrook will be that much more winded as he prepares to take on this methodical, grind-it-out Utah squad.

Key Stat – Turnovers

As I’ve already touched on, turnovers are a huge issue for Westbrook and as such have become a huge issue for this Oklahoma City team. When your point man leads the league in turnovers per game, it’s a recipe for difficulties across the board.

Thus it’s no surprise that the Thunder rank near the bottom of the league in turnovers as they are averaging 15.4 such miscues per game, slotting them at 23rd in the NBA.

And with the fast-paced and relentless offense of Westbrook and the Thunder, the Jazz will need to take advantage of these turnovers to get easy baskets and match OKC’s scoring. This Thunder team is capable of putting up a lot of points in a hurry, so Utah will need to counter that by capitalizing on their errors and cashing in on transition points of their own.

Again, as good as Westbrook and the Thunder have been this year, teams have found success against them by flustering them and taking them out of their rhythm. Forcing turnovers is a great way to accomplish just that, so if Utah can win the turnover battle, they will have a very good chance of winning the ball game.

Key Performer – Rudy Gobert

Although I was tempted to slot Gordon Hayward as the game’s key performer as I feel he enjoys a significant advantage over the OKC wings, particularly on the offensive end, I decided to go with Rudy Gobert as I believe his performance will most dramatically impact tonight’s game.

While it will be fun to watch Gobert go head-to-head with the up-and-coming Steven Adams, I think what I, along with many other Jazz fans, am most looking forward to is seeing him battle against former Jazzman Enes Kanter, who certainly isn’t a fan favorite in SLC due to his attitude and words upon leaving the team.

You can bet that Rudy will play with a chip on his shoulder as he looks to reiterate what we of Jazz Nation already know – that getting rid of Kanter to hold onto Gobert was far and away the best choice.

But beyond going head-to-head with OKC’s post players, the determining reason why I selected Rudy as the key performer over Hayward is the work that he will have to do at the rim to contain Russell Westbrook. Particularly with Hill and Exum both likely sidelined, Gobert’s help defense will have to be 100 percent on point if he’s to stop Westbrook’s blow-by moves to the rim which are guaranteed to happen.

As Gobert controls the paint and makes life difficult at the rim for Westbrook, he could very well be the difference maker in tonight’s contest. Rudy has also been on a tear offensively as he’s logged 14 points or more in each of the last four games, so if he’s able to bring that spark as well it will serve as another enormous bonus for the Jazz.

Prediction – Jazz 102, Thunder 99

In my outlook and prediction piece previewing this week’s contests, I slotted the Jazz as the winner of this game by a narrow margin with the caveat that they would most likely need George Hill to be active in order to shut down Westbrook and win the game. Unfortunately, we now know that Hill will not be suiting up.

So I will admit that I am a bit nervous about the Jazz’s chances in his absence, but given the fact that the Thunder are coming in on the second night of a back-to-back and after watching the Blazers effectively shut down Westbrook with less than formidable point guard defenders, I’m going to stick with my original prediction and give the Jazz a narrow win.

Related Story: Utah Jazz Week Eight Outlook, Predictions

True, there’s always the possibility that Westbrook will come out infuriated and have an incredible bounce-back game after his lackluster performance last night, but despite the Thunder having won seven of their last ten games, they also have struggled with inconsistency this year as they’ve posted both a three-game and a four-game losing streak on the season.

Therefore, it would by no means be an unfamiliar result for the Thunder to drop consecutive games in this circumstance. Not to mention, that while they enjoy a 13-7 record with at least one day of rest between games, they’re just 2-3 on back ends of back-to-backs on the season.

More from The J-Notes

• With the FIBA World Cup over for Simone Fontecchio, it’s clear he deserves minutes for the Utah Jazz
• Best, Worst and Most likely scenarios for the Utah Jazz this season
• Hoops Hype downplays the significance of the Utah Jazz’s valuable assets
• 3 Utah Jazz players who have the most to gain or lose this season
• Former Utah Jazz forward Rudy Gay is a free agent still and it shouldn’t surprise anyone

So while this will no doubt be a hard-fought game and Utah will have their hands full containing Westbrook without a true starting point guard, I’m feeling confident that they’ll find a way to get it done and move comfortably into sixth place in the Western Conference following a victory tonight.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com