What Chance Do the Utah Jazz Have Against the Warriors?

The Utah Jazz have been playing well lately, but how good are their chances of actually winning against such a dominant Golden State team?

On Thursday night, the Utah Jazz will play host to the league leading Golden State Warriors in what may be the biggest game of the year so far for Gordon Hayward and Co. The Warriors currently hold the top record in the league and have been predictably decimating their opponents.

Utah, meanwhile, despite some struggles this season is sitting at a respectable 14-9 which is all the more impressive considering how many games key Jazzmen have missed due to injury. Gordon Hayward sat out the first six, Boris Diaw was out for nine games, Rodney Hood was out for two, George Hill and Derrick Favors have both now missed 12 games and of course Alec Burks has been sidelined for the entire season, missing 23 games and counting.

Given the circumstances, it’s amazing that the Jazz are where they are at. If you had told me that three of Utah’s top five players would miss 30 games combined and that other key guys would struggle to stay healthy as well, I would have never pinned the Jazz to be sitting at a 14-9 record.

Yet nevertheless here they are, still afloat. While some of those nine losses haven’t been pretty and have come at the hands of some less than formidable opponents, the Jazz have also shown flashes of what they can do with big wins over the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets.

But those victories look like child’s play now compared to the behemoth of a team that Utah will be hosting on Thursday night. Golden State is top in the league in points per game, assists per game, field goal percentage, assist ratio, effective field goal percentage and offensive efficiency.

I know what you’re thinking, “Now is that all?!” If only it were.

Perhaps it should come as no surprise with the Warriors topping all of those stat categories, but they also lead the league in average point differential as they have outscored opponents by a whopping 13.8 points per game on the season. Having three guys on your team averaging over 20 points per game certainly helps with that.

The stat lines of Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have been incredible so far this season. Take a look:

Kevin Durant – 27.0 ppg, 56.5 FG%, 42.0 3PT%, 8.4 rpg, 4.7 apg

Steph Curry – 26.2 ppg, 49.3 FG%, 42.0 3PT%, 4.0 rpg, 6.0 apg

Klay Thompson – 22.5 ppg, 48.1 FG%, 39.2 3PT%, 3.5 rpg, 2.1 apg

This team is so versatile with such a core of star power, that it’s almost impossible to know how to guard them. Their offensive firepower has obviously been a key contributor to their incredible point differential on the season.

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But enough drooling over the Golden State Warriors. The national media does enough of that for us already and you didn’t come here for that. Let’s get our focus back to the Utah Jazz. If Golden State is so good and so nigh unbeatable, what chance do our banged up Jazz have against them? How in the world can they find a way to win?

First of all, it’s probably going to take some health. We already know that Derrick Favors and Alec Burks won’t be playing in Thursday’s contest, but Rodney Hood (who re-aggravated his hamstring in Tuesday’s win over Phoenix) is questionable as is George Hill who continues to nurse a sprained toe.

If neither of those two will be active, I may be wasting my breath on this whole thing.

You all saw what Lou Williams did to poor Dante Exum and Shelvin Mack in his 38-point barrage on Monday. Imagine what we’d be up against without George Hill to slow down Curry. Not only that, but the Jazz have lost both previous contests that Hood sat out for and have gone 6-6 without Hill.

Not to mention, the combination of Hill and Hayward are currently 5-0 together in their meager sample size of shared games. Thus if both are in action, statistics support a guaranteed Jazz win, right?

OK, so maybe not so much, but still there’s no denying that Utah’s chances of winning go way up with both Hood and Hill in the game. Both have been phenomenal on both sides of the ball, particularly Hill who’s averaging 20.0 points per game on 53.4 percent shooting from the field and 45.6 percent shooting from deep.

Related Story: Utah Jazz Locked-In as a Top 10 Team Despite Injuries

He has been the calming force and the glue that has kept this Jazz team together on both sides of the floor. Despite the Jazz logging three straight wins, they’ve desperately needed Hill’s demeanor as in each of those latest victories, Utah nearly gave up big leads in the final quarter. Against a juggernaut like Golden State, that kind of late-game collapse won’t fly.

But while Rodney Hood and George Hill’s health are a necessity for Utah to have any chance of competing against the Warriors, they aren’t going to be what gives the Jazz a leg-up.

With such a formidable roster and so many league-topping stats, one might wonder how can these Warriors be stopped? What weakness do they have? While their deficiencies are few and far between, luckily the Jazz happen to be built precisely with a couple of strengths to exploit Golden State’s minor foibles.

And it’s in these areas that the Jazz may be able to rely on a few “X-factors” to scrape by with an unfathomable win.

The first potential area of exploitation is their defense. Although Golden State has enjoyed an incredible point differential, winning in blowout fashion left and right, it has largely come as a result of their high-powered offense and not their defense.

Surprisingly, the Warriors are just 21st in the league in opponent points per game as they’re giving up an average of 106.4 points per contest meaning if Utah can slow the pace and get the game at their speed, they may be able to hinder Golden State’s offense and fight their way past the Warriors’ D.

Of course some of the reason for Golden State giving up so many points has to do with the incredible pace that they play at. Naturally, if a team gets more possessions, they’re going to score more points. However, it’s worth noting that Golden State is also down this year in defensive efficiency, which measures the number of points given up per 100 possessions, as they rank ninth in the league at 101.9.

So while there is some room for the Jazz to potentially get a one-up on the Warriors defensively, then again, it’s hard to call their defense a weakness when they currently rank third in the league in opponent field goal percentage and second in opponent three-point percentage. Therefore, although in some ways Golden State’s defense has slipped slightly, they’re still extremely tough on that front.

To be successful, the Jazz will more than likely have to take advantage of Golden State’s hefty 14.7 turnovers per game and turn them into easy points, thereby frustrating the Warrior defense. In each of the Warriors’ three losses they turned the ball over 16 times or more (20 times against the Lakers) so Utah will need to make this a point of emphasis.

The next area where the Jazz can look to take an edge is in bench production. While Golden State potentially boasts the best four-man group in their starting lineup in league history with the likes of Durant, Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green, their bench isn’t quite as spectacular as it once was.

The Warriors reserves are putting up just 30 points per game this season, good for 25th in the league. Especially considering the number of total points the Warriors score (their bench makes up for less than 25 percent of the team’s scoring output) as well as the amount of playing time the bench gets at the end of many blowout games, this is a noticeably low number.

So while Durant, Curry and Thompson might be near unstoppable, the Jazz have to take advantage while the Golden State reserves are in the game. Unfortunately, despite being slotted as the best bench in the league over the offseason, Utah’s second unit hasn’t exactly been phenomenal either.

However, a lot of this in my mind has to do with the onslaught of injuries Utah has suffered. The Jazz are definitely still a deep and talented team with a reserve group that’s better than their current numbers indicate.

If Hill and Hood are in action, this will help the Jazz bench be stronger as guys such as Dante Exum, Joe Ingles and Joe Johnson, who have been thrust into the starting lineup to patch up holes caused by injuries, can instead play in a more productive and suitable position off the bench.

So for the Jazz to increase their chances of winning, not only will their starters need to hold the Warriors in check, but the reserves will have to outplay the Warriors’ second unit. With guys like Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston it won’t be easy, but so far this year Golden State has shown that their depth isn’t quite as formidable as it’s been the past two years.

But perhaps Utah’s biggest potential advantage will be their size, particularly down low. In both contests against the Warriors in Salt Lake last season, the Jazz took the game down the wire, losing the first on a missed shot by Rodney Hood at the buzzer and the second in overtime after missing 10 of 14 free throws in the final period of regulation.

One of the keys to staying in each of those games was Utah’s ability to close down the paint. The length of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors absolutely bothered the Warriors and made for difficult match-ups on both sides of the ball.

We saw the same thing in the NBA Finals last year as once Andrew Bogut went out with an injury, LeBron James and the Cavs were able to bully Golden State inside and come away with three straight wins to claim the title.

And while Golden State’s offseason was an overwhelming success, the one area in which they downgraded was in their size, replacing Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli with the likes of Zaza Pachulia, David West and JaVale McGee. While all three are established pros, the Warriors aren’t quite as daunting on the interior as they once were.

Of course the Jazz will be without the services of Derrick Favors in Thursday’s bout, but Rudy Gobert has been firing on all cylinders as he put up a monster game on Tuesday against the Suns which saw him log a career-high 22 points to go along with 11 rebounds and four blocks.

Gobert has always been a monster on defense, but he is slowly but surely coming around on the offensive end as well. If Rudy can challenge the Warriors inside and force them to adjust to a bigger lineup that they’re less comfortable with, it could be key to throwing Golden State out of their rhythm and tilting the advantage ever more in Utah’s favor.

And the idea of throwing them out of their rhythm, brings me to my final and perhaps most crucial area in which the Jazz will have to play well. It’s no secret that the Warriors are an impeccable three-point shooting team and that their ability to catch fire from deep at any moment is one of their greatest weapons.

However, it’s also been one of their biggest downfalls.

It’s pretty rare that the Warriors have an off shooting night, but when they do, their heaves from three can be extremely detrimental. Golden State has shot under 30 percent from deep on just four occasions this year. Three of those games have been losses. They went just 21.2 percent in the loss to the Spurs, an unbelievable 15.6 percent in the loss to the Lakers and 27.3 percent in the most recent loss to the Rockets.

Thus, as difficult a task as it may be, Utah has to be able to shut the Warriors down from the perimeter if they hope to win. Having Hood and Hill in the lineup will certainly help with this, but that alone won’t guarantee success in this area.

Unfortunately, while the Jazz are currently second in the league in opponent field goal percentage (thanks largely to Rudy Gobert looming in the paint), they’re just 25th in the league at defending the three point line.

Even though the Jazz are built to have the ability to outmatch the Warriors in the paint and off the bench, and could enjoy advantages in these areas, the real way to make Golden State stumble is to hold them in check from deep as well as to capitalize on their aforementioned turnovers.

However, Utah hasn’t been great in either of those areas as the team is allowing opponents to shoot 36.1 percent from deep on the year and forcing the least amount of opponent turnovers in the league at just 11.2.

So, yes, Utah’s size and depth (depending on health) may give them a better chance of matching up against and defeating this Warriors team than the average NBA squad. However, while Utah boasts a terrific overall defense, their work on the perimeter and on forcing turnovers will need to be much better than it’s been so far this season if they hope to beat the reigning Western Conference Champions.

Thus the question remains, does Utah have a chance against this team? Yes, of course they do. But like most teams in the league, they’ll have to play at their absolute best in order to come away with the win and will likely have to have a bit of luck on their side as well.

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The Warriors will be coming into Salt Lake on the second night of a back-to-back after taking on their division rival LA Clippers, so hopefully this will leave them a little more tired and sluggish than usual (cross your fingers for triple overtime in that game) and help the Jazz to excel even more in their areas of strength.

Yet even beyond that, Utah does enjoy a number of traits that make this match-up a little more favorable for them, such as their size, bench and pace. However, especially with so many injury questions still up in the air, the probability of them winning is more than likely against them and they’ll have to be nearly perfect if they hope to defy the odds and come away with a win.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, ESPN.com and hoopsstats.com