Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat: Keys to the Game

With one win over the Miami Heat already under their belts, the Utah Jazz should feel confident coming into their final meeting against this Eastern Conference foe.

The last time the Utah Jazz and Miami Heat met, Utah was coming in on the final game of a grueling five-game road trip as well as on the second night of a back-to-back. One might have thought that the Jazz would be out of energy and be outmatched by the opposing Heat team.

However, the exact opposite was the case as the Jazz rolled to a wire-to-wire 102-91 win in which they held the Heat starters to just 36.7 percent shooting from the field. Miami made a couple of runs during the first half but Utah pulled away after halftime, thanks largely to a third quarter in which they outscored the Heat 24-12.

And in Thursday’s match-up, the Jazz will not only have the benefit of coming in with a day’s rest, but also will have George Hill, who didn’t play in these two teams’ last contest and has been phenomenal since his return from injury.

The Heat on the other hand are coming off a win against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night and will have to make the quick trip to Salt Lake City to take on the Jazz in their second game in as many nights. The one boost they’ll have compared to their last game against the Jazz is the return of Goran Dragic to the lineup, who was out last time with an ankle injury.

Dragic has averaged just over 16 points since his return and had an impressive 27-point night in Miami’s loss to the Celtics on Monday. With both the Jazz and the Heat benefitting from the healthy return of their point guards in this contest, Thursday’s game could have a very different feel and the result will likely be directly tied in to the performance of each of these point men.

Key Match-up – George Hill and Goran Dragic

Which leads perfectly into the key match-up for Thursday night’s affair. Since both players sat last time around and both are the second-leading scorers on their respective squads, they’ll obviously have huge impacts. Dragic trails only Whiteside in scoring while Hill trails only Hayward.

However, both Dragic and Hill are key cogs in each offense that help improve the play of Whiteside and Hayward, respectively. Not only do they contribute just by scoring the ball, but they’re great at getting others involved and elevating the team as a whole.

And while Hill has been a better scorer and more efficient shooter this year, Dragic holds a lead in the assist category by nearly 2.5 per game. Even if Hill has a better individual game than Dragic, perhaps the true measure of which player wins this match-up will be who does a better job of getting their teammates involved and thriving on offense.

The good news for George Hill and the Jazz is that even with Dragic back in the lineup, the Heat have gone just 3-3 over their last six games. While that’s certainly an improvement over their overall record of 6-12, Miami clearly has many kinks to still work out.

And while Dragic is a solid player, he isn’t without his faults. On the year, he’s averaging over twice as many turnovers as George Hill, an area where Utah’s crafty guard can certainly take advantage to give the Jazz an edge at the point guard slot.

Key Stat – Three-Point Percentage

While the Jazz are steadily showing improvement in many areas as they continue to roll on a four-game winning streak, one area that has still stood out as needing improvement during the season has been three-point shooting. The Jazz currently rank 18th in the league, converting on just 34.4 percent of their attempts from deep.

However, you wouldn’t have known that was the case from Utah’s performance against the Rockets on Tuesday. Utah shot a blistering 53.6 percent from behind the arc in a convincing 120-101 win over Houston in which they totally dominated the second half. The Jazz have been consistently solid in so many areas, but when the threes are dropping, they truly appear capable of beating anyone.

But as their season average shows, Utah has had its ups and downs from the three-point line. In their last contest against the Heat, the Jazz managed to barely out-shoot the Heat from the arc, finishing at 30 percent compared to Miami’s 29.4.

Miami’s low three-point percentage wasn’t all that surprising as they are currently just 25th in the league at 32.9 percent from deep. Utah should already have a slight edge in this category and if they’re able to catch fire from deep like they did against Houston and take advantage of a weak three-point shooting team in the Heat, the Jazz could find themselves with a significant advantage in this area.

Key Performer – Gordon Hayward

The last time these two squads met, Gordon Hayward was far and away the Jazz’s leading performer as he cashed in an impressive 25-point night on 50 percent shooting from the field. Gordon has been red hot since Hill returned to action and I expect that trend to continue Thursday night.

Particularly considering that the Heat are extremely thin at the small forward position, Hayward should once again be able to have his way on offense and won’t have to worry too much about getting worn out on defense. Justise Winslow and Dion Waiters are decent players in certain areas, but don’t have the prowess on either end of the floor to wear down Hayward.

While George Hill will have his hands full with Dragic, and Rudy Gobert will be matched up against the ever dangerous Hassan Whiteside, they’ll likely look to Hayward to take advantage of the mismatches he faces to propel the Jazz to their fifth straight victory.

Prediction – Jazz 105, Heat 88

Given how well the Jazz have played over the course of their last four games, combined with the fact that the Heat have struggled so far this season and are coming in on the second night of a back-to-back, I’m going to actually change my prediction from earlier in the week.

While I had always had Utah pinned to win the contest, their recent offensive explosion makes me feel confident that they’ll win the game in a bit more commanding fashion, therefore I’ve added six points to their scoring total while leaving Miami’s the same.

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Of course it will be hard for the Jazz to match the three-point production that they put up in Tuesday’s win, but as long as they can win that battle, contain Goran Dragic and get another colossal game out of Gordon Hayward, they should have no problem defeating a tired and middling Miami Heat team.

This would improve the Jazz to 12-8 on this young season, a phenomenal start especially given how tough things were looking just two weeks ago. Utah is currently enjoying a nice stretch of home games against beatable teams and they’ll have to keep taking advantage and winning those types of games as they look to prove themselves as a top team in the West.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com and ESPN.com