How Can the Utah Jazz Survive Without Rudy Gobert?
With Rudy Gobert out indefinitely with a sprained MCL, how can the Utah Jazz expect to survive until he returns?
Upon reading this article’s headline and after seeing the Utah Jazz’s utter collapse against the Orlando Magic on Thursday night, the knee-jerk response would likely be, “Apparently they can’t.” Undoubtedly, the loss of Rudy Gobert is a huge set-back for the Jazz. His emergence last season almost single-handedly transformed the Jazz from an underachieving unit into a stingy defensive force.
Utah is undoubtedly a better and more confident team with their defensive anchor on the floor.
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Following Thursday’s loss to Orlando, the Jazz are now 0-3 on the season without Gobert, not to mention the narrow loss they suffered to Cleveland when the Cavs came storming back during a stretch where Gobert was sidelined with an ankle injury.
Gobert’s massive frame and length allow him to be an almost unconquerable force in the paint. According to Nylon Calculus, which breaks down advanced basketball stats, Gobert led the league last year in opponent field goal percentage at the rim (40.6 percent) and currently leads the league in opponent field goal percentage when contested at the rim (35.2 percent).
These low percentages (particularly for shots at such close range) indicate defensive production that simply cannot be replaced. To go along with these impressive numbers, Gobert also has averaged 2.6 blocks per game this year.
Yet Rudy’s success doesn’t belong solely to himself. In reality, his pairing alongside counterpart Derrick Favors is a key factor in Utah’s success on defense. Therein lies a major problem that comes with Gobert’s absence. While Favors has played at an elite level so far this season on both ends of the court, he has done so as an elite power forward, not necessarily as an elite center.
While it might make sense to replace Gobert by simply sliding Favors, who has arguably been the Jazz’s best player so far this season, to the center position, this move isn’t exactly justified when broken down.
Of the Jazz’s lineups that have played at least 10 minutes together on the court, two of the bottom three in defensive rating have featured Derrick Favors at the center position. The lineup of Alec Burks, Rodney Hood, Gordon Hayward, Trevor Booker and Derrick Favors has an atrocious net rating (difference in offensive and defensive ratings) of -53.8. In other words, they have struggled to score while giving up a ton of points.
So the first thing the Jazz need to do to weather the storm with Gobert out of the lineup is to allow Favors to play in his comfortable position at the four-spot as much as possible. Unfortunately, yes, this means starting the only backup center on the active roster, Jeff Withey.
Is Withey going to replace Gobert’s productivity? Not likely. Is he an ideal and polished starting center? Absolutely not. Yet he is the only player that can play center while giving Favors the opportunity to be in the position where he has thrived all year.
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And while the sample size is discouragingly small, Withey hasn’t looked bad so far in his limited minutes. With the exception of Chris Johnson who has averaged under five minutes per game, Withey holds the team’s best defensive rating of 89.8. In just 10 minutes of play in the loss to Orlando, Withey went two of three from the field for four points with three rebounds and, most impressively, three blocked shots.
While Gobert certainly plays a key role on the Jazz’s offense, he plays an even more vital role as the anchor of the defense. Withey doesn’t necessarily have to come in and be a reliable offensive threat, but rather he has to be a respectable rim protector.
With Withey covering the five-spot, the Jazz will be able to run a more comfortable and efficient offense with Favors at the four. It might not be ideal, but losing a starter to injury never is.
But Withey alone and the small switch in the starting lineup won’t save the Jazz all on its own. Each individual Jazz player will have to step up. Of the aforementioned worst defensive Jazz lineups, it’s interesting to note that the bottom four all include Rodney Hood.
In reality, Hood has been a liability on both ends of the floor so far this season. Not only is his defensive rating of 102.2 the second worst on the team (behind only Trey Burke‘s rating of 104.2), but his offensive efficiency has been poor as well.
His field goal percentage of 40.9 percent is down from last year, especially in comparison to his post-All Star numbers (46.4 percent). He is currently shooting just 28 percent from deep which is 8.5 percent below last season and significantly under his post-All Star percentage of 42 percent.
This is a problem. After finishing the 2014-15 season so strong, it was expected that Hood would take off from there. Instead, he has started the season off in a bit of a sophomore slump. Not only has he been missing shots he’s capable of making, but his shot selection has been questionable at best. Many of his shots have come early in the shot clock or just haven’t been great looks. His final shot in the recent loss to Golden State is an ideal example.
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While offense tends to come and go with long-range shooters such as Hood, the defensive drop-off is a little less justifiable. His defensive rating last season of 98.7 was much better than his rating this season. While defensive ratings can be a little misleading, it still is worrisome to see that number rise so significantly.
If the Jazz are going to weather the Gobert-less storm, Hood needs to improve quickly or else it might be time for Elijah Millsap to see an expanded role.
Not known for his offense, Millsap emerged as a formidable wing defender last season, posting an incredible 95.4 defensive rating. Gobert’s main contribution to the Jazz was defense and with him gone, the Jazz will need to look elsewhere for production on that side of the court. With how inconsistent Hood has been offensively, Millsap potentially wouldn’t be that much of a downgrade while his impact on defense could help patch up some severe holes on the perimeter.
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Finally, the Jazz have to continue to trust in one another and learn to adapt and adjust in the absence of the Stifle Tower. Losing Dante Exum during the offseason was a huge blow for the Jazz, yet Trey Burke has responded by putting up the best shooting percentages of his career so far. The reaction and response to Gobert’s injury has to be similar.
This can’t be an obstacle that causes the Jazz to hang their heads and call it quits. Rather, it has to become an opportunity for others to step up and for the team as a whole to shine.
If the Jazz are capable of doing that and learning how to win without Gobert on the floor, Rudy will return to a much-improved and more disciplined team. It’s easy to slack off a little on defense knowing that a seven-foot-one monster has your back at the rim. But if the Jazz can learn to tidy up their miscues with Gobert sidelined, they have the potential to be that much more dangerous and develop into an even stingier defense than what they were last season.
Every team that ever rose to greatness did so by conquering great adversity along the way. The Jazz can either look at this as an unbeatable trial or as an opportunity for growth.
If the Jazz are able to make the proper adjustments and adapt their game to this unfortunate situation, this minor setback could convert itself into a pathway to major improvements.
And then, despite all the odds, the Jazz will be able to survive.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com/stats unless otherwise indicated.