Can The Utah Jazz Make The Playoffs?

Mar 16, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) grabs the rebound away from Charlotte Hornets forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (14) during the third quarter at EnergySolutions Arena. Utah Jazz won the game 94-66. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

The Utah Jazz have been playing wonderful basketball as of late, and some fans are asking if they could still make the playoffs. So, let’s take a look at what would have to happen for the Jazz to make the playoffs.

There are four teams that could land in the eighth playoff spot. Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and Phoenix are all ahead of the Jazz. Utah currently sits in the 11th spot in the Western Conference. Of the four teams fighting for the eighth seed, Utah has been playing the best basketball as of late. Both OKC and Utah have won 14 of their last 20 games. However, Utah has won nine of its last ten while OKC has only won five.

Utah is six and a half games back from OKC. That is a large number considering OKC only has 15 games left and Utah only has 16. John Hollinger’s playoff odds, which heavily favor recently play, only give the Jazz a 0.5% chance of make it into the playoffs because of this large win deficit late in the season.

The one thing not reflected in these odds that could change the out come is that Thunder’s Serge Ibaka is likely to miss the rest of the season. Considering that Kevin Durant is not back, this really limits OKC’s scoring options. They are going to have to depend heavily on Enes Kanter, and we all know how that could end.

Let’s take a look at each teams’ remaining schedule and see what would have to happen for the Jazz to make the playoffs.

The Suns are the team that is least threatening to the Jazz right now. They currently are only four games a head of the Jazz and have only won seven of their last 20 games. They seem to be scuffling since they traded away Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic.

They also have the toughest remaining schedule of the four teams according to their opponents average adjusted win percentage, which discounts records of Eastern Conference teams.

Going through and projecting the remainder of the Suns season, it’s apparent wins wont be easy. For the Utah Jazz to make the playoffs, the Suns need to go 6-8 for the remainder of the season. However, the Jazz also need Phoenix to win against the Thunder and the Pelicans.

New Orleans is a tricky team to figure out. They have some great wins on the seasons, but they have dropped games to teams like the 76ers. Their strength of schedule is only slightly harder than the Thunder’s.

For the Jazz to make the play offs, they would need New Orleans to end the season with a 41-41 record. This is due to the fact that New Orleans holds a tie breaker over the Jazz.

So, Utah would need them to finish a game under where they currently stand. This is not impossible.

While projecting out their wins, it became apparent that this could be a realistic out come for the Pelicans remaining schedule. They face a plethora of Western Conference play off teams and have more road games than Utah, OKC, and Phoenix. Still, for the Jazz to make it to the playoffs, the Pelicans would have to go 5-11 to end the season.

The Thunder have a fairly each schedule for the rest of the season. Nine of their 15 remaining games are at home, and four of them are against Eastern Conference teams.

It’s very difficult to project how OKC will finish the season with the recent Ibaka news. The team was already thin and relying on their studs too much. Russell Westbrook has catapulted himself into the MVP talks, by averaging 32.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 10.2 assists since the all star break. Ibaka has been helping Westbrook carry the team by averaging 17.1 points on 54.7% shooting, 9.4 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks a game during the same time period.

The Thunder now to have to rely on Enes Kanter as their second scoring option. There is a big efficiency gap between the two and this could hurt the Thunder’s chance of making the playoffs.

That being said, the Thunder would still have to go 5-10 in their last 15 games for the Jazz to make the playoffs. If they win anything over five games, the Jazz are out. It’s hard to imagine a team led by Westbrook only winning 1/3 of their games.

There are a couple things that bode well for the blazing Utah Jazz. First of all, they have the easiest schedule left of the four teams fighting for the playoffs. Eight of the final 16 games for the Jazz will be in Utah. Seven of their final games are against teams with a record below .500.

However, for the Jazz to win, they would have to go 12-4 in their final 16 games. That is a 75% win rate, which is possible, but very difficult. The Jazz have nearly done this over their last 20 games, and have far exceeded that in their last 10. The Jazz would also need to win their game against OKC, as it would give them the tie breaker. With any injury, the Jazz are out of the contest.

For the Jazz to make the playoffs not only would the Utah Jazz have to play amazing basket ball at a .750 rate, but every other team would have to lose around 60% of their remaining games.

So while there is a chance that the Jazz make the playoffs, it is highly unlikely. And fans shouldn’t be upset about that either.

The fact that the Utah Jazz will likely end the season above 35 wins is a huge improvement from the beginning of the year. Vegas had the over/under for wins set at 25.5 for the Jazz, bad enough to be the third worst team in the NBA.

This team is growing and fans should be ecstatic. Over the last 41 games, the team has won 24 of them. If they played an entire season like that they would have 48 wins and safely be in the playoffs. Get excited Jazz fans. This team is not bad anymore!

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