The Utah Jazz are currently slated with the eighth-highest lottery odds this season. If the lottery rewards them with the eighth pick or higher, they get to keep it. Alas, the better record they finish with, the likelier it is that it will go to Oklahoma City. The Ringer's Zach Lowe explained that not only will the Jazz tank, but they'll have to make the team only slightly lesser to ensure they'll keep the pick.
On the January 1st show of "The Zach Lowe Show," Lowe explained the precautions the Jazz will likely take to avoid their worst-case scenario. He explained that if they finish out of the top eight, the odds of them keeping the pick are disastrously low, which is why they will do the following.
"I think the most likely path for them is to get really comfortable with the top-eight protected pick, you've got to get all the way to sixth in the lottery standings. When you get to the sixth-worst record, you then have a 97% chance, if you're Utah, of keeping your pick.
"If you're even seventh, it's still an 87% chance. That's really nice... So can they fall to six? I think yes they can," Lowe said. He finished by saying that they will have to trade some of their veterans to get to that spot.
The Jazz were ninth in the tanking standings when Lowe recorded this pod, so they have already progressed in the tank now that they are eighth. In so doing, they have a
Who could the Jazz leap over to ensure they keep their pick?
After losing to the Clippers, it's fair to say that the Jazz probably won't have anything to worry about from them (as long as they stay healthy from here on out, or more specifically, Kawhi). So, that takes care of that, but what about the other teams that are currently ahead of the Jazz?
The seven teams ahead of Utah are the Indiana Pacers, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, and Dallas Mavericks. Some of these teams have different intentions from others.
The Pelicans have no incentive to tank because their pick goes to Atlanta. They've had a good stretch recently, but are in the midst of a six-game losing streak. With more than half the season left to play, they have time to make up some ground. They are only five games worse than the Jazz at the moment.
Besides them though, the others are in different places. Indiana has very much embraced the tank without Tyrese Haliburton so expect them to be at the bottom of the barrel. Sacramento is on the verge of a blowup, so when they do, that will confirm that they are all in on the tank. Washington has been playing better lately, but they will likely start making some changes to make sure they have the best lottery odds.
The Nets might do the same, as it's been rumored that they might trade the surging Michael Porter Jr, but they'll still lose plenty whether they keep him or not. It doesn't feel like the Hornets want to be in this position, but they simply might not have a choice. The Mavericks are in a precarious position with Anthony Davis, but who knows how they'll resolve that situation?
The Jazz have three and a half months to make up some ground in the tanking game. They're actually not that far behind despite clearly being a better team than last year, but tanking now will make it a little more complicated because of that and because of what is at stake.