The Utah Jazz are just days away from getting the 2025-26 team underway, with training camp starting on September 29th, and with that, we are getting NBA predictions and feedback about where the team will finish this year.
The predicted over/under for the Jazz by FanDuel is currently 18.5 wins, owing a lot to their 17-65 finish a year ago, and the loss of key veterans like Collin Sexton, John Collins, and Jordan Clarkson in the offseason.
However, with at least a few starting spots up for grabs, the Utah Jazz could look very different from a year ago.
Players like Ace Bailey, Isaiah Collier, Brice Sensabaugh, Walter Clayton Jr., and Cody Williams figure to benefit from the veteran departures this season, and the young guys should bring some bounce to the lineup, along with the known quantities that are Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Kyle Filipowski, Keyonte George, Jusuf Nurkic, and Georges Niang.
Why the Jazz are likely to exceed expectations
David Locke, the radio voice of the Utah Jazz, talked about this on his podcast recently, noting that per John Hollinger of The Athletic, the Jazz will exceed the over-under prediction of 18.5 wins:
Locke points out that the fifth-worst NBA team, per Hollinger's analysis, should hit 30 wins in 2025-26. The Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, and Phoenix Suns are the others that FanDuel projected to be in the NBA cellar, along with the Utah Jazz.
Even though the Jazz are projected to have the worst over-under in the NBA, they also have an All-Star caliber player in Markkanen and a solid center in Kessler, which is a good foundation for a turnaround.
Last year, Hollinger predicted 5 teams to overachieve their over-under projection, and four of them succeeded - Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Detroit, and Atlanta. Each of those four cleared their projection by 10 wins or more.
This year, Hollinger predicts Oklahoma City, the LA Clippers, Chicago, Golden State, and Utah to overachieve. Implied in that logic is that the Jazz have already hit their low point, with the 17-65 record last year. Growth will happen from there. And that Cody Williams and Isaiah Collier both were very bad a year ago in certain metrics, and should improve with a year behind them in the NBA.
Hollinger's analysis concludes that with Markkanen and Kessler, the Jazz will not be hopeless. They are still likely to finish in the lottery, but they won't be setting franchise records for futility, and as a result, they will beat the predictions for 2025-26.