With the NBA Draft just a few weeks away, the Utah Jazz are busy with draft preparation and sorting fact from fiction, as they decide on a player that could impact the team long-term and possibly be a franchise player.
The 5th overall pick is where the Jazz are slated to select their next talented prospect, and there are plenty of players to choose from in one of the deeper drafts in recent memory.
If we had a crystal ball, we could look and see which player from this draft will outperform their draft selection. It happens frequently - players like Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, Jalen Brunson, and even Steph Curry. None of them went in the top five of their respective drafts.
For every player that outperforms their selection, many flame out spectacularly, like Anthony Bennett, former Jazzman Dante Exum, James Wiseman, Josh Jackson, Dragan Bender, or Marvin Bagley III. All top-five selections that failed to live up to the hype.
While many Jazz fans were crestfallen by the 2025 NBA Lottery results, this may be a positive in the long run, as first, second, third, and even fourth overall picks aren't the surest of things. The pressure can destroy a young player, especially when they are looked upon as the savior of a franchise.
Looking at players drafted from 1984 to the present, 19 HOF inductees came from the top four picks of the draft. Interestingly 26 players from outside those picks were also inducted into the Hall in the same timeframe.
Does the fifth pick have a better HOF chance than two through four?
Reviewing the history of the NBA Draft for the last 40 years, the second, third, and fourth picks have not produced as many players who made the Basketball Hall of Fame.
A combined 10 players in those three draft spots have made the grade - Jason Kidd, Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton, Michael Jordan, Grant Hill, Chauncey Billups, Pau Gasol, Carmelo Anthony*, Chris Bosh, and Dikembe Mutombo.
The first overall pick has nine HOF inductees in the same span - Dwight Howard*, Yao Ming, Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, Chris Webber, Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, and Hakeem Olajuwon.
The fifth overall pick, by comparison, has seven players alone making the HOF grade. That's nearly as many as the first pick! NBA legends like Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen Sr., Mitch Richmond, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, and Utah Jazz minority owner Dwyane Wade were all former fifth overall picks.
The last 10 picks at fifth overall have produced seven starters for the NBA. Three of them have made All-Star teams (De'Aaron Fox, Trae Young, Darius Garland). The other four are Jalen Suggs, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and former Jazzman Kris Dunn.
The fifth overall pick from last year, Ron Holland, had an uneven rookie season with Detroit but looks to be in the rotation more in 2025-26. Only one player from that span was an absolute bust: Mario Hezonja (2015, Orlando).
So, with the fifth pick, the Utah Jazz aren't in as bad a position as people might think. It may be a blessing. The player they take has a good shot at being a starter, at the very least, and maybe an All-Star. So let's keep our heads up and hope the selection is a good one.
*Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard will be inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame in August as part of the 2025 class.