The Utah Jazz had better odds of landing at No. 4 overall than at No. 10

Utah Jazz really got the short end of the stick.
2021 NBA Draft
2021 NBA Draft / Arturo Holmes/GettyImages

Some would say the Utah Jazz got hosed in the NBA Draft Lottery, and those people wouldn’t be wrong. The Utah Jazz absolutely got bamboozled. They had the 8th-best shot at the first-overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery, and not only did they not get the first-overall pick, they didn’t even get to stay at the 8th-overall pick, which was the most likely for them to fall. No, instead they fell two spots further to No. 10. 

A fall so bad that it was actually more likely they land the 4th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, than the 10th. According to a post on Reddit, a fan did the math and the Utah Jazz had a 7.2% chance of landing at No. 4 and a 6.7% chance of landing at No. 10. Meaning that some real mysterious forces were in play to hand the Jazz a Draft Lottery “L”. 

Granted, the players that best fit the Utah Jazz are seen as guys who would have gone around this spot anyway. So the Jazz will still have a shot at Stephon Castle, Reed Sheppard, or Dalton Knecht. So while it's not great, the Jazz still have a shot at one of the better players that fit with what the team needs. Plus, the real worst-case scenario, they fall to the 11th spot and then the Jazz don’t even get to keep their pick. So, silver linings and all that. 

One of the things worth noting on this Reddit math post is how likely it was for the Detroit Lions to fall to No. 5 overall, which is what happened. 

Assuming the math on this post is right, the Detroit Pistons had a near 50% (47.9%) of landing the 5th spot in the NBA draft. 

That is the most any team in the top 10 had for landing at any one specific spot in the draft.