The Utah Jazz currently sit with the NBA's sixth-worst record. If it stays that way when the season ends, they have a 96% chance of keeping their pick. The odds are already high, and there's a chance it could get even better because one of few teams that's worse than them is primed for a late-season surge: the New Orleans Pelicans.
Yes, this has been brought up before, and man, that previous take looks bad in hindsight, given that they are still worse than the Jazz record-wise, but now, it's legitimate.
The Pelicans have won two in a row, four of their last six, and have just gotten healthier, as Dejounte Murray made his return after tearing his Achilles a year ago. In so doing, they are now only a game and a half ahead of the Jazz for the No. 5 spot in the tanking race.
For anyone whose unfamiliar with New Orleans' draft situation, they agreed to a pick swap with Atlanta that will likely convey, so they have everything to play for despite being a bad team with no hope of making the playoffs and no pick for their troubles.
With Utah trying to ensure their pick is safe by taking measures such as season-ending surgeries for players like Jusuf Nurkic, the Pelicans' making a late-season push fits snugly with their plans. A 96% chance of keeping the pick is fantastic for Utah, but vaulting up to over 99% would be even better.
If they usurp the Pelicans at No. 5, that's exactly what happens, per Tankathon.
How the Jazz's and Pelicans' schedules compare
The one obstacle for Utah this late in the season - with 24 games left - is that they have the league's 10th-easiest remaining schedule, per Tankathon. The one upside for them is that New Orleans has the eighth-easiest.
The Jazz may have to go the extra mile to keep teams like the Mavericks and Grizzlies at arm's length, while the Pelicans will go the extra mile to surpass them.
Another positive for the pro-tankers: both the Jazz's and Pelicans' remaining schedules include three head-to-head matchups with New Orleans. Don't be surprised if the Pelicans win all three, just like you shouldn't be surprised if the Jazz do everything in their power to ensure they do.
It will likely be pretty painful to watch in real time for Jazz fans, but it's the final chapter in Utah's tank. With what's at stake, the fans know it should all be worth it.