The Utah Jazz haven't exactly gotten too much return on Ace Bailey. They only saw him play in two Summer League games, but he flashed his talent and his potential. Bailey is a high-ceiling prospect with a low floor. However, while his Summer League play was exciting by itself, a new stat gave further evidence for why Jazz fans should be excited for what's to come.
Jeremias Engelmann revealed that there's a stat called "adjusted plus-minus" that shows how effective a basketball player can be during college basketball. This also exists in the NBA, but not in college until Engelmann figured it out. This is how Engelmann explains the stat, which he called "RAPM."
"RAPM tries to determine a player's influence by (a) incorporating points scored by the player's team and the opponents, while also (b) taking into account the strength of the player’s teammates, the strength of the opponents, and the state of the game," Engelmann wrote.
There's a much more detailed explanation for what it is, but this is more about how it applies to Bailey. Engelmann named Bailey among the players whose effectiveness he believes will translate in the NBA (third in his draft class and sixth overall). He explained that despite Rutgers' shortcomings last season, none of that was on Bailey himself.
"This method sees Bailey as a highly positive player last season, and blames his teammates," Engelmann wrote. "The fact that Rutgers defended eight points (per 100 possessions) better with Bailey on the floor should give Utah fans reason for optimism."
Of course, the question will be how impactful his rookie year will be. He'll obviously have better teammates in Utah than he did at Rutgers, but still won't exactly have the best supporting cast. That may work in his favor as a player overall, but that could come with skepticism that he's a "good stats, bad team" guy.
Still, this is exactly what Jazz fans want to see. After last season was perhaps the toughest to watch in franchise history, they need that hope that things will get back on track soon enough. Bailey won't make the Jazz do a 180 by himself, and certainly not in his rookie year, but he could be that hope the fans have wanted since 2022.
Hopefully the bar won't be set *too* high for Bailey
Bailey's Summer League performance, combined with statistics like these, is really encouraging, but we have to remember that he's just a rookie. There will probably be growing pains, and even if his transition to the NBA is seamless, he will likely hit a rookie wall at some point.
He is very exciting as a prospect, but expectations should be kept within reason. Luckily, because the Jazz are tanking, fans should be ready for anything from the prized rookie. Fans have seen rookies who exceeded expectations, like Kyle Filipowski, and others who underperformed, like Cody Williams, so anything goes.
Statistics like these point to the Jazz feeling very good about picking Bailey when it's all said and done. Whether that's immediately or takes a few years, fans have every reason to be excited for what's to come.