At the moment, the Utah Jazz are sitting in a great position heading into the NBA offseason. They will have the best odds to earn the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and will carry plenty of flexibility to continue to build around Lauri Markkanen during the summer. Of course, all of that could change depending on how the ping-pong balls bounce on NBA Draft Lottery night.
Statistically speaking, the Jazz should have a favorable draw. However, if NBA history has taught us anything, it's that nothing is ever a foregone conclusion when it comes to the draft lottery. Even though the Jazz has a 52 percent chance to finish with a top-4 pick (and a 14 percent chance to earn the No. 1 overall selection), it would not be smart for Utah to count their chickens before they hatch.
It may not be likely, but there is at least a chance that Utah's pick does fall out of the top 4. In what has been described as a three or four "can't-miss" prospect draft class, falling out of the top 4 could be disastrous for a team like the Jazz. If that were to happen, you can't help but wonder where that could leave the team heading into the rest of the offseason, as it would bring several big-picture questions back into play.
What if the Jazz fall out of the top 4 in the NBA Draft?
If Utah's pick were to fall out of the top 4, one of the bigger questions would quickly shift toward the future of Markkanen and Walker Kessler. Both players have been subject to "trade whispers" over the last 12-18 months. Would that once again be back on the table if Utah weren't able to position themselves to select a potential generational or foundational prospect in this year's draft?
The quickest path for the Jazz to build a contender is through the draft. Missing out on one of the few franchise-changing prospects in this year's draft class would quickly change the tune of this franchise heading into the rest of the offseason. It would leave the team in a position where they'd have to continue down a slower rebuilding process, rather than the hope of ramping things up via the addition of a special talent atop this year's draft class.
If that were to happen for the Jazz, the philosphy would quickly shift from finding a potential star player to complement Markkanen to finding a lead guard who could set up the offense or placing all their hope on the 2025-26 season on continued internal develop from players like Keyonte George and a few of their other young pieces.
It's also at that point where Utah would have to make a big decision regarding the future of Markkanen. At 28 years old (which he'll turn in roughly a month), the pressure is on Utah to quickly build around Markkanen. At the very least, the Jazz have to take a big step forward in terms of acquiring young talent this summer if they're going to expect Markkanen to remain committed to the franchise.
Falling out of the top 4 in the NBA Draft Lottery would be a nightmare scenario for the Jazz that would force them into some big decisions that they may not be ready to make. As odd as it may sound, the Jazz's immediate future will largely be dictated by what happens at the NBA Draft Lottery. And if their pick does fall out of the top 4, we could be having a very different conversation about this franchise in a couple of months.