The Utah Jazz have finished with a 22-60 record, tying them with the Sacramento Kings11 for the NBA's fourth-worst record. This is a crucial detail because a coin flip will determine the Jazz's lottery odds.
Utah not only would love to have the best lottery odds possible, but they also want to ensure that there's absolutely no chance their pick could go to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
For anyone who is not familiar by now, the Jazz owe a top-eight protected pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder this year. Back in 2021, the Jazz included it when they dumped Derrick Favors to the Thunder as they were going through their rebuild, and the Jazz would enter the last year of the Donovan Mitchell-Rudy Gobert era.
This has been hanging over the Jazz's heads for three years now. The pick they owed the Thunder was top-10 protected in 2024 and 2025, but because it never conveyed, it became top-eight protected this season. If the pick falls out of the top
Hence, Utah had more at stake this season, so they more incentive to play as badly as possible. They weren't the worst team in the NBA, but they were still pretty bad overall. Here's all you need to know about the upcoming coin flip.
The Jazz's lottery odds if they win the coin flip
If Utah wins it, first things first, it guarantees their pick won't go to Oklahoma City. With the fourth-best odds, this is what their chances would look like for each pick in the top eight percentage-wise.
1st: 11.5%
2nd: 11.4%
3rd: 11.2%
4th: 11%
5th: 7.5%
6th: 27.1%
7th: 17.9%
8th: 2.4%
So the Jazz would have the strongest odds of getting the No. 6 pick, which is perfectly fine. Utah plans to be good no matter what happens, so having another lottery pick to add to a potential playoff team is just gravy.
The Jazz's lottery odds if they lose the coin flip
If Sacramento wins it, there's a chance the Jazz's pick could go to Oklahoma City. However, it's still minuscule. With the fifth-best odds, this is what their chances would look like for each pick in the top nine percentage-wise.
1st: 11.5%
2nd: 11.4%
3rd: 11.2%
4th: 11%
5th: 2%
6th: 18.2%
7th: 25.5%
8th: 8.5%
9th: 0.6%
This has been stated ad nauseam, but the Jazz have a 99.4% chance of keeping their pick if they get the fifth-best odds.
To give you an idea of how bad Utah's luck would be for them to fork over their pick to Oklahoma City, here's something to keep in mind.
Both the Jazz and Kings are down big at the half and all signs point to a tie for the fourth-best odds in the lottery.
— Chandler Holt (@CHoltSports) April 13, 2026
In that case, Utah would have a 1 in 333 chance (0.3%) of falling to No. 9 and having its pick conveyed to OKC.
Whether they finish with the fourth- or fifth-best odds in the lottery, the Jazz are in an excellent position. They've never had a higher pick than No. 3, and that was 15 years ago. Though, it resulted in the drafting of Enes Freedom.
Utah has all but avoided the worst-case scenario, but what will determine whether they're out of the woods will be whether they (or the Kings) call heads or tails.