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Utah Jazz lottery odds: What are the chances of landing the #1 pick?

By Jared Koch

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 23: Deputy commissioner Mark Tatum speaks during the 2022 NBA Draft at Barclays Center on June 23, 2022 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 23: Deputy commissioner Mark Tatum speaks during the 2022 NBA Draft at Barclays Center on June 23, 2022 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /
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With Utah missing the 2023 NBA playoffs, the Jazz can now look to the lottery in hopes of jumping up in June’s NBA Draft.

One of the most exciting events Jazz fans can look forward to now that the team is eliminated from playoff contention is the NBA Draft Lottery. This is the prime opportunity for the losing teams of the league to get a breath of fresh air in the building.

While some teams’ chances to get lucky and jump up are slim, have the chance to change the franchise for years to come.

For the Utah Jazz (finishing at 37-45), they stand at about the middle ground of the lottery, with the 9th-best odds to land the #1 overall pick. Utah entered this past season with many expecting them to land odds at a top pick but overachieved by many’s expectations.

Entering the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery, the Utah Jazz have a 4.5% chance to land the #1 overall pick, and a 20.3% chance to land a pick within the top 4.

While a pick within the top 4 would be a great outcome for the Jazz, the top of this draft class has a clear first, second, and third overall pick to choose from. If jumping up, the goal should be to get either Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, or Brandon Miller, not a consolation 4th overall pick.

The odds for a top-three pick for the Jazz are a tad lower at 14.5%. While there is a chance, it’s far from the most likely result come late May.

Instead, the most likely outcome for Utah is not to jump up, but instead to either stay at #9 or drop even lower in the lottery. Here’s every possible outcome for the Utah Jazz when it comes time for the ping-pong balls to bounce.

NBA Draft Lottery: Utah Jazz odds for every draft pick

#1 overall: 4.5% chance

#2 overall: 4.8% chance

#3 overall: 5.2% chance

#4 overall: 5.7% chance

Utah cannot land picks #5-8.

#9 overall: 50.7% chance

#10: overall: 25.9% chance

#11 overall: 3.0% chance

#12 overall: 0.1% chance

#13 overall: >0.0% chance

Utah cannot land pick #14.

All data found is from Tankathon.com.

Next. Ranking the 10 best former Utah Jazz players in the 2023 playoffs. dark