If the Utah Jazz are serious about tanking, they need to part ways with Donovan Mitchell sooner rather than later. Even with zero supporting cast, the All-Star could easily win enough games by himself to keep the Jazz out of the high lottery.
Unfortunately for the pro-tank crowd, Mitchell does currently have an elite supporting cast with Patrick Beverly, Mike Conley, Jared Butler, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jordan Clarkson, and Bojan Bogdanovic. If the Jazz were to trade some role players away, then maybe they could somehow rebuild with Donovan Mitchell.
Utah Jazz: How to stumble onto the first overall pick
The Jazz have never drafted first overall in their entire franchise history. Now would be the time, as the prize, next summer is French phenom Victor Wembanyama, a seven-foot sharpshooter with insane handles. Outside of Zion Williamson and LeBron James, there has never been a prospect this hyped in my lifetime. He is also the highest touted European prospect ever and is well worth throwing away a season for.
So how do the Jazz manage to draft him? The team holds their own pick, the Timberwolves’ pick, and the least favorable of Houston, Brooklyn, or Philadelphia’s pick in the upcoming draft. Reasonable trade capital includes Mitchell, Clarkson, Beverly, Conley, and Bogdanovic.
Teams looking to land Wembanyama include San Antonio, Orlando, Houston, Detroit, and Oklahoma City. Any team looking to tank does not want to add Donovan Mitchell, as he has four years left on his contract. Only a contending team would want him. The only way the Jazz could possibly dream of getting the first overall pick next year is by losing a ton of games, acquiring as many picks as possible in the upcoming draft, and then hope the draft lottery goes their way.
Step one: make sure you lose games
The best way for the Jazz to ensure that they don’t compete next season would be to trade star Donovan Mitchell. It seems like the Knicks are the frontrunners to land him, regardless of what other reports say. It seems like the Jazz are trying to get six first-round draft picks from the Knicks, but New York is hesitant to part with that much capital. Instead, let’s say Utah manages to snag the Knicks’ 2023, 2025, 2027, and 2029 first-round picks, in a deal that is much more reasonable.
That leaves the Jazz with four picks in the first round in the upcoming draft. Since the Knicks and Wolves are both looking to contend, and the pick from the Nets is likely coming from the Sixers or Nets, only their own pick will be in the lottery with significant odds.
The Jazz will also have several future picks from the Timberwolves and Knicks, so they could package future picks to get even more current ones.
The only teams that seem to be invested in a long-haul tank are the Magic, Rockets, Thunder, and Spurs. The Magic will need to see how Paulo Banchero plays in the league, but their core of Wagner, Suggs, and Anthony are still a few years out. The Rockets are the NBA’s youngest team, but Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green seem to be on their way. The Thunder have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, but Chet Holmgren is a long-term investment who might not become a starter until year three. The Spurs traded away Dejounte Murray and seem to be investing heavily into 19-year-old Josh Primo, so they could be dormant for a while. If the Jazz manage to lose a ton of games after shipping off Mitchell, the franchise could sell their assets and make a run to get a star rookie now.
Step two: get all the 2023 draft picks you can
In order to maximize the lottery odds, the Utah Jazz will have to make the biggest gamble in NBA history. The franchise will have to trade almost all of their future picks to get as many high lottery picks in the upcoming draft. To do so, I suggest that Utah look to San Antonio and Houston.
Both teams are several years away from competing, and both teams are, at this point, trying to get as many draft picks as possible.
The Jazz got four picks for Donovan Mitchell in my hypothetical trade earlier, and they got four in the very real Rudy Gobert trade. Are four future picks worth losing for one lottery pick? In this loaded draft class, absolutely. Even if the Jazz miss out on Victor Wembanyama, there are still franchise-saving players at the top like Scoot Henderson, Nick Smith, and Anthony Black. All of those guys are insanely good, and with picks from Houston, San Antonio, and their own, Utah could get multiple of those guys. I suggest the Jazz pull off two trades to get the best picks possible.
Would the Spurs and Rockets go for it? Probably. Both teams are several years out, and the Jazz have the supporting cast to build a winner now, provided they have the right star. San Antonio and Houston each get four future picks to salivate over, and Jazz basketball could be back as soon as 2023-24.
If the Jazz are serious about rebuilding, this is a drastic, but smart, way to go about it. They could stay the course they are on and see what happens. There’s merit to that, but it could be time to turn the franchise upside down.