As the Utah Jazz seemingly head towards a full-on rebuild, it’s important to understand how exactly the franchise got here. The Jazz drafted poorly for the better part of a decade, lucking into trades with the Denver Nuggets to land Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. If it weren’t for those moved, the Jazz may have languished in absolute mediocrity for a long, long time.
Utah Jazz: What to expect from the inevitable rebuild
With Gobert traded for four first-round picks, and Donovan Mitchell on the block for even more, the Utah Jazz will be set up well for a full-on rebuild. Luckily, it should be quick, if done right. Unfortunately, all rebuilds, no matter how fast, have their painful moments.
The first step in a successful rebuild is a complete cleaning of the house. Danny Ainge was brought in to be the CEO of basketball operations and could help immensely with the future, and Quin Snyder called in quits, meaning untested head coach Will Hardy will make his debut in 2022-23.
The Jazz moved Royce O’Neale and Rudy Gobert, and with Mitchell seemingly next the Jazz will have parted ways with three of their top five players. The foundation is nearly set, so what will the Jazz do?
If the Jazz decide to learn from the past, they should look at three fairly recent rebuilds: The Sixers’ “Process,” the Celtics’ return to relevance, and the post-Durant and Westbrook reconstruction of the Thunder.
Models to follow and avoid
The Process, by all definitions, should be considered a total failure. The Sixers wasted four seasons losing on purpose and did a horrible job with their high draft picks. Yes, they rolled the dice on Joel Embiid, but other than that every single pick blew up in their faces. For starters, they drafted Jahil Okafor and traded Jrue Holiday for Nerleans Noel. That’s three centers taken in the lottery in a row. Most teams only play one center at a time, so why you wouldn’t draft for fit at all is behind me.
Second, the Sixers took Micheal Carter-Williams Markelle Fultz, and Ben Simmons. Two of those guys won Rookie of the Year, but none of them can shoot from anywhere, making them nearly obsolete in today’s NBA.
On the opposite end are the Boston Celtics. Their rebuild was far from perfect after trading Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. They experienced bad luck with Gordan Hayward, traded for Kyrie Irving, and until recently fizzled out in the playoffs. That being said, they traded the first overall pick in 2017, allowing Philly to take Fultz while the Celtics got Jayson Tatum. They also played it safe and got a good all-around player in Jaylen Brown, then spent a lot of time developing his shot.
While the Danny Ainge Celtics were less than perfect, they did lay the groundwork for a successful NBA rebuild. The Thunder are emulating that, trading Westbrook and Paul George for massive hauls of picks, which they have used on rising star Josh Giddey and potential ROTY candidate Chet Holmgren.
The Jazz of the past were not good at drafting, but with a new front office and coaching staff they might be able to redo it well this time. Sitting in the middle of the standings or drafting poorly year after year will result in no progress, so the Jazz need to avoid that.
How to follow learned lessons
Assuming the Jazz trade Mitchell for the expected package of five or six picks, the Jazz will have added either 10 or 11 picks for future first rounds. They can use all those assets to trade up or find a star at their position. With 17 first-round picks for the rest of the decade, the framework is there.
The Jazz could go all in on the tank for one season. If they trade Clarkson, Bogdanocivh, Conley, Beasley, and Beverly the Jazz could bring that 17 pick total up to 22 at most, giving them an average of three and a half first-rounders every year. In a loaded upcoming draft, they could package those picks to move up or hope their guy falls to them at any point down the line.
The Jazz could tank for only one year like the Sixers, horde picks like the Thunder, and hopefully draft well as the Celtics did. They should be extra incentivized. Danny Ainge is a master and Will Hardy is looking to build his roster.
With a first-year head coach, it would be a good time to start from scratch. Hardy can build a report with his players, develop and play them as he sees fit, and get the guys that make him ready to win.
Most rebuilds are painful episodes that take several years, but if the Jazz go all-in for just one season, then by 2023-24 fans will have several reasons to be excited about the future. The team won’t be competing by then, but the framework and vision will be in place and clear. As the Suns, Warriors, Clippers, and Lakers start to fade, the Mavericks, Pelicans, and Grizzlies will emerge as contenders, and the Utah Jazz could be right in the thick of it.