Utah Jazz Prediction #2: Rudy Gobert misses out on Defensive Player of the Year
We’re not basing this prediction on what ought to happen. We’d like to make that abundantly clear.
Mostly, you can chalk this up to voter fatigue. The Stifle Tower has won the award in three of the past four seasons. Voters will likely be hungry to see it go to someone else.
Of course, there’s a reason he keeps getting named as the league’s best defender. He’s the best rim protector in basketball, and rim protection is the most important component of an NBA defense.
Gobert is mostly illustrating those principles again this season. He’s leading the league in D-RAPTOR at 6.2, which is widely regarded as the most comprehensive metric in measuring defense. He’s only 8th in the league in Defensive Win Shares (DWS), but given that Steph Curry and Jayson Tatum rank ahead of him, we’re guessing there’s some noise in that stat.
The factor that’s most likely to hold Gobert from winning the award again is his team’s performance. The Utah Jazz sit 12th in the NBA in Defensive Rating at 109.5.
More thoughtful voters may count this in favor of Gobert. After all, this team neglected to acquire a much-needed 3 and D wing, either at the deadline or on the buyout market. Gobert is anchoring a top 15 defense with precious little help (shoutout to Royce O’Neale).
Still, most voters are more likely to focus on the fact that this Utah Jazz defense is faring worse than it has in several seasons. That fact, alongside the previously discussed voter fatigue, is likely to land the award in someone else’s lap.
It’s hard to say exactly who. Giannis Antetokounmpo may get his second DPOTY trophy. If he can get healthy, Draymond Green may do the same. Alternatively, Mikal Bridges could get the nod, as the best defender on the third best defensive team in the league.
There are several candidates in a fairly open field. We’re guessing the Utah Jazz star doesn’t get the nod in 2021-22 whether he deserves it or not.