If Utah Jazz Head Coach Quin Snyder deserves credit for one thing (side note: he deserves credit for a lot of things) it might be his ability to recognize what works, and stick with it.
The Jazz have leaned increasingly on four-out lineups featuring a conventional rim protector in the middle during his tenure, with considerable success. This year, many observers thought Snyder might deviate from his formula, particularly with the team’s offseason acquisition of potential small ball center Rudy Gay. So far he’s stuck to his preferred script. Spoiler alert: all 5 of the most used Utah Jazz lineups in 2021-22 so far feature either Rudy Gobert or Hassan Whiteside at the center position.
It’s a trend worth monitoring as the season unfolds. We’re tempted to suggest that Snyder should experiment with small ball lineups sooner than later, lest he find his Utah Jazz in the postseason with no idea how to counter Nicolas Batum. In the interim, these lineups have found varying degrees of success.
Here’s how the Jazz’s five most used lineups rank according to their differential, as found on CleaningtheGlass.
Utah Jazz fifth-best lineup: Hassan Whiteside, Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, Donovan Mitchell
Lately, there has been some discussion among Utah Jazz fans about whether Joe Ingles ought to usurp Royce O’Neale in Snyder’s starting lineup. O’Neale has been injured for the past 2 games, and the Jazz’s offense has exploded with Ingles manning his usual spot.
Wherever you land on that debate, it seems evident one of them will have to come off the bench, as 3-wing lineups are not working for the Jazzmen. As per CleaningtheGlass, this grouping has a -4.7 differential, good for the 23rd percentile in the NBA.
Of course, one could argue that the more deterministic variable here is that Whiteside is in the lineup as opposed to Gobert. It’s a fair counterpoint, but as you’ll learn in the next slide, Whiteside does man the middle in one of the Jazz’s more successful lineups.
For whatever reason, this group particularly struggles on the defensive end. The 118.4 points they allow per 100 possessions rank in the league’s 7th percentile (per CleaningtheGlass). Snyder should probably look to this group as seldom as possible, perhaps exclusively in the interest of fatigue management.
Utah Jazz fourth-best lineup: Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley
Yes, you read correctly. The Jazz’s starting lineup has only been their fourth most effective lineup in 2021-22 so far, at least according to their differential per CleaningtheGlass. This group still enjoys considerably more success than the previous lineup. Their +10.9 differential puts them in the 62nd percentile in the NBA.
An obvious caveat applies here: as the starting lineup, this group faces the stiffest competition of any of these units. Still, there are areas in which they could stand to improve.
Surprisingly, this group is not faring well in terms of offensive rebounding on either end. Their offensive rebound percentage of 23.7% ranks in the 44th percentile, and on defense, their opponent’s offensive rebound percentage of 25.9 tanks in the 33rd (all per CleaningtheGlass).
Maybe the lesson here is that as dominant as Gobert has been on the glass, he can’t do it alone. The Gobert + two wings + two guards formation has a lot of advantages, but it seems that rebounding holds them back to an extent.
Utah Jazz third-best lineup: Hassan Whiteside, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, Jordan Clarkson, Donovan Mitchell
Were you expecting to see someone else at center? If so, don’t worry. He’ll be back.
Nonetheless, this lineup featuring Whiteside at the 5 has been very impressive. Their +12.7 differential puts them in the league’s 70th percentile according to CleaningtheGlass. Perhaps most significantly, they’ve actually fared better than the starting lineup offensively, at least on a points per 100 possessions basis. Their 122.2 mark in that statistic lands them in the 86th percentile.
It obviously isn’t the case that Whiteside is a better offensive player than Gobert. The former’s -2.3 Offensive Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) is substantially behind the latter’s 2.6 mark. Instead, it seems likely that a Clarkson/Mitchell backcourt is bludgeoning opponents in the short bursts this lineup has played together.
Utah Jazz second-best lineup: Rudy Gobert, Eric Paschall, Joe Ingles, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley
It’s hard to account for the relative success of a Jazz lineup featuring Eric Paschall. He’s been solid in Salt Lake City, but also unremarkable. His Box Plus/Minus of -2.3 does not suggest that he’s been the key to unlocking this group’s success.
Nonetheless, it’s been successful. This lineup’s differential of +17.3 puts them in the 81st percentile, per CleaningtheGlass. It’s worth noting that they’ve been so successful in spite of a grisly 18.2 turnover percentage that lands them in the 8th percentile.
If you’ll pardon the pun, perhaps cleaning the glass has been the key to this unit’s success. Their 31.7 offensive rebounding percentage puts them in the 90th percentile, and their opponent’s Offensive Rebounding percentage of 19.1 is in the 88th. Gobert might just benefit from playing alongside a big bodied forward like Paschall.
That would also help to explain the dominance of the Jazz’s best lineup in 2021-22 to date.
Utah Jazz best lineup: Rudy Gobert, Rudy Gay, Joe Ingles, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley
One thing immediately jumps out about this lineup: it does not feature Donovan Mitchell. It may be an uncomfortable truth that the Jazz’s most successful lineup this year doesn’t feature Spida, but numbers don’t lie.
At the same time, numbers do require close examination. This group has played a total of 142 possessions together, the smallest number of any of these lineups. There may be some small sample noise in this stat.
Still, the results do speak for themselves. This unit’s differential of +24.5 is in the league’s 92nd percentile. Also interestingly, the Jazz again seem to be most successful when Gobert is paired with a purer modern 4, as opposed to a wing playing up a position.
Utah Jazz fans need not riot: nobody is suggesting that this team is better off without Donovan Mitchell. Those two lineups may indicate the best type of 4 to pair with Gobert, and Quin Snyder may want to take note of their successes. Regardless, this team isn’t going anywhere without its leading scorer.