First and foremost, it needs to be said that no matter how well Joe Ingles has been filling in for the injured Royce O’Neale in this Utah Jazz starting lineup, we only have two games worth of data so far. That is not nearly enough to merit demoting O’Neale, the team’s best perimeter stopper, to the second unit.
Only, that isn’t precisely all we have. Yes, the impetus for writing this article was the fact that the Jazz’s offense has hummed in O’Neale’s absence, and the eye test has suggested that Ingles’ superior three-point shooting and passing vision have been largely responsible. However, we have plenty of games’ worth of data with which we can compare them in 2021-22.
Furthermore, we can look at how the Utah Jazz have fared with each throughout the season so far. We’re going to take a dive into the numbers here, and see if Joe Ingles might be a more sensible starter for the Jazzmen than O’Neale upon the latter’s return.
Utah Jazz lineup comparisons
At this stage in the season, we don’t have a full set of data in which lineups function best for which teams. There simply haven’t been enough minutes played. However, we have enough to work with; and so, we will work.
According to CleaningtheGlass, the two best Utah Jazz lineups this season in terms of differential both feature Joe Ingles. When he shares the floor with Rudy Gobert, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson, the Jazz are +24.5 in differential, which is in the 91st percentile in the entire league.
Granted, that number comes in the very limited time that lineup has seen since Gay arrived. On the other hand, a formation that swaps Eric Paschall for Gay boasts a +17.3 differential, good for the 87th percentile in the NBA.
No lineups featuring Royce O’Neale have come close to replicating that success. When he shares the floor with Hassan Whiteside, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson and Donovan Mitchell, the team enjoys a +12.7 differential (70th percentile). That’s solid, but it’s also the best Utah Jazz lineup featuring O’Neale. It’s not nearly as good as the two top Ingles lineups (which are also the two top Jazz lineups) and furthermore, it comes with several members of the second unit.
Of course, looking at the performances of lineups featuring both Jazzmen doesn’t settle the manner entirely. Using the same data to make the same argument, Jordan Clarkson should be starting, and functionally, his offense is imperative to the second unit. We need a more direct comparison of Ingles and O’Neale.
Utah Jazz head-to-head comparison: Joe Ingles and Royce O’Neale
A head-to-head comparison of these two players confirms what most Utah Jazz fans already knew: Ingles is a more valuable offensive player, and O’Neale holds more value in terms of point prevention.
In 2021-22 so far, Ingles has a 1.4 Offensive Box Plus/Minus (OBPM), in comparison to O’Neale’s -0.9. Meanwhile, O’Neale’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) of 2.5 bests Ingles’ 0.3. Overall, the result is a marginally higher BPM for Ingles, whose 1.7 is slightly stronger than O’Neale’s 1.6.
It should come as no surprise that Ingles is a better offensive player than O’Neale. His 40.8% accuracy rate on 4.9 three-point attempts per game is considerably superior to the 35.4% O’Neale shoots on 4.2 per. More than just a floor spacer, Ingles also dishes out 6.3 assists per 100 possession in 2021-22, compared to a mere 3.3 from O’Neale.
Arguably, Quin Snyder should ignore those discrepancies, and opt to keep O’Neale’s defensive prowess in a starting lineup that already features several capable offensive players. On the other hand: should he?
The Utah Jazz have the best rim protector in basketball right in the middle of their starting lineup. They might be able to stop teams from scoring with both Site Experts from the J-Notes on the wings. It might be more prudent to maximize the floor spacing and playmaking around Gobert for as many minutes as possible.
The Jazz’s second unit may not miss Ingles’ offensive abilities too dramatically either. Jordan Clarkson is beginning to break out of a season-long slump. He might benefit more from sharing the floor with an additional defensive specialist in O’Neale.
If the Jazz keep scoring like they have over their first two contests with Ingles in the starting five, Snyder may be forced to find out.
All told, the decision may be inconsequential. Both Joe Ingles and Royce O’Neale figure to be key contributors to the Utah Jazz moving forward. However, the numbers may suggest that Ingles should be the one making his contributions with the starting group.