Utah Jazz: Rudy Gobert looking like early MVP

Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert is no stranger to hardware as a 3 time recipient of the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award. However, if he continues playing at the level that he has throughout the 2021-22 NBA season, he may have to make room for a more prestigious trophy on his shelf.

Rudy Gobert is playing like an MVP candidate. His Utah Jazz improved to 5-1 with a win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night. With averages of 16.3 points, 17.2 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game, nobody could deny that the Stifle Tower has been the biggest contributor to that success to-date.

Granted, 16.3 points per game would be a remarkably low average for an MVP winner. In fact, it would be the lowest since Steve Nash’s 2004-05 MVP season, wherein he averaged 15.5 points a night. It’s worth noting that Nash’s scoring average was accompanied by 11.5 assists per contest. He was, simply put, a more dynamic offensive player than Rudy Gobert.

We know Gobert puts defense first. Those 3 Defensive Player of the Year awards are a testament to that fact. However, could a deeper dive into advanced metrics yield a strong MVP case for the French big man?

Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert having MVP-level impact

We compared the last three MVP seasons from Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2x) to Rudy Gobert’s current campaign in terms of Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, and Player Efficiency Rating (PER). In the process, we hope to have answered the question of whether the Utah Jazz star is truly having an MVP caliber season so far in 2021-22.

Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert vs Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic had a remarkable offensive season in 2020-21. His basic counting stats of 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists make the appearance of a player far more advanced than Gobert. However, the metrics paint a slightly different picture.

Rudy Gobert has an Offensive Rating of 139 so far in the 2021-22 NBA season. That is patently absurd, and probably unsustainable. However, he is absolutely on pace to exceed the 130 mark that Jokic posted in his MVP season. Meanwhile, Defensive Rating is surprisingly no contest. Gobert’s mark of 90 so far will probably regress, but it will almost inevitably remain elite. Meanwhile, Jokic’s 109 Defensive Rating from 2020-21 leaves a little to be desired.

In terms of PER, Gobert’s 28.7 does lag behind Jokic’s 31.3 from 2020-21. However, it’s worth noting that PER typically favors offensive-minded players. Gobert’s significant advantage on the defensive end should factor into this comparison.

Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert vs Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo

On the other hand, Antetokounmpo is one of the few players in the NBA who makes a comparable impact to Gobert on the defensive end. In terms of an overall comparison, the Greek Freak posted Offensive Ratings of 121 and 116 in his 2018-19 and 2019-20 MVP campaigns, and Defensive Ratings of 99 and 97. 

Again, Gobert’s robust ratings in each of those metrics are likely to regress as the 2021-22 season wears on for the Utah Jazz. Having said that, with the Stifle Tower starting from such lofty peaks, final ratings in the vicinity of Antetokounmpo’s MVP marks feel entirely realistic.

Finally, Antetokounmpo’s PERs from his MVP seasons were 30.9 and 31.9: again, both superior to Gobert’s mark to-date due to the Bucks star’s increased offensive responsibilities.

If anything, the main factor holding Gobert’s MVP case back will be that he is not a primary offensive creator. Typically, the award goes to a first offensive option on one of the league’s best teams. However, if the Utah Jazz continue their winning ways throughout the season, and Gobert continues to make the two-way impact he has thus far, voters may be forced to make an exception for the 2021-22 MVP award.

Ultimately, Gobert does not fit the conventional mold of an MVP, and that fact may keep him from receiving the league’s highest individual honor. On the other hand, the Utah Jazz star may end the season with a case too strong to ignore.