Utah Jazz point guard Mike Conley’s name has become so synonymous with the ambivalent designation of “underrated” that NBA fans could be forgiven if it’s the first word they’d use to describe him. Recently, CBS Sports were the latest media outlet to do wrong by the NBA veteran in their ranking of the top 15 point guards in the NBA.
We’ll willingly admit that ranking NBA players is a difficult proposition. Any list aspiring to do so is virtually assured to spark controversy. However, in this case, CBS Sports should draw the ire of fans of the Utah Jazz. They just finished naming him the 14th best point guard in the National Basketball Association.
By our count, that’s at least 3 spots too low. It could, in fact, be more. Some of the players ranked ahead of Conley do not have a firm case for their placement, but, it’s not necessarily clear that Conley deserves a ranking ahead of them either. Before we name the 3 point guards we think Conley was clearly snubbed for, we’ll address some of the more complicated cases.
Russell Westbrook placed one spot ahead of Conley at 13th. Westbrook is one of the most divisive players in the NBA. It wouldn’t be difficult to find thousands of fans who would rank the walking triple-double in the top 3. Conversely, one could find credible NBA observers who would leave the high-volume, low-efficiency point guard out of their top 15 altogether. We’ll accept Russ’s placement ahead of Conley (which is not to suggest that we agree with it). Russ is not far removed from receiving an MVP trophy, and whether he deserved it or not, that’s not an accomplishment Conley has so much as sniffed in his NBA career.
Jamal Murray’s placement over the Utah Jazz floor general at 12th is suspect primarily because the talented Canadian figures to miss the majority of the 2021-22 season. However, we’ll grant CBS Sports the benefit of the doubt here, and assume that the rankings existed with the caveat that health was not under consideration. Conley was narrowly more impactful than Murray according to several advanced metrics last season, but if you bake in the latter’s probability to improve at the age of 24, the ranking is justifiable.
Finally, Ben Simmons’ ranked as the 8th best point guard in the NBA heading into the 2021-22 season according to CBS Sports. If any player in the NBA is more divisive than Russell Westbrook, it’s probably Ben Simmons. Evaluating an All-World defender and genius-level passer who can’t shoot has proven complicated for front offices across the National Basketball Association. We’ll opt to avoid the issue, and concede Simmons’ ranking ahead of Conley on this list.
With that said, we simply cannot abide by some of the rankings in this article. We’ll be looking at several advanced metrics, including Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) and Box Plus/Minus (BPM) to make the case that Mike Conley deserved to be ranked ahead of three players on this list.
This isn’t the first time this summer that Utah Jazz point guard Mike Conley has been underrated in direct comparison to Kyle Lowry. Both men entered into NBA free agency this season. Both exited with 3-year deals: Conley’s for $72.5 million, Lowry’s for a heftier $90 million.
It’s confusing, because Mike Conley is better by every advanced metric that tracks on-court impact. His PER of 19.2 from last season is considerably higher than Lowry’s 16.5, his VORP of 2.4 exceeds Lowry’s 1.3, and his most pronounced advantage over Lowry comes in BPM, at 4.4 to 1.2.
If basic counting stats are more your speed, Lowry averaged 17.2 points per game and 7.3 assists per game last season to Conley’s 16.2 and 6.0. Obviously, Lowry’s marks are higher here, but it needs to be accounted for that he played 34.8 minutes a contest to Conley’s 29.4. On a per 36 minutes basis, Conley is more impressive again, averaging 19.9 points and 7.3 assists to Lowry’s 17.8 and 7.6.
These are two of the most comparable players in the league, so it’s difficult to ascertain why Lowry typically enjoys status over Conley. They’re similar in age (Conley is one year Lowry’s junior at 33), so rankings like CBS Sports’ can’t be accounting for expected improvement. They’re both relatively unathletic floor generals, each relying more on high basketball IQ, hustle and reliable floor-spacing to produce at All-Star levels.
It’s something of a mystery, but it seems that Lowry is a more highly esteemed player in spite of not being a more productive one. That’s not a knock on the veteran point guard. He’s exceptional, and was an integral part of the Toronto Raptors’ 2018-19 championship run.
He’s simply not better than Utah Jazz point guard Mike Conley, and the numbers back that position up handily.
Unlike in the case of Kyle Lowry, the cognitive biases that led CBS Sports to perceive that Ja Morant should be ranked ahead of Mike Conley are obvious. Morant is younger, and his brand of basketball is considerably more exciting as a high flying, flashy passing offensive machine. Furthermore, he is by far the most important player on his squad, whereas Conley is typically regarded as the third banana on the Utah Jazz.
None of which makes Morant better than Conley, which, at this point in his career, he is not.
Conley’s 2020-21 PER (19.2) trumps Morant’s mark of 17.1. His VORP (2.4.) surpasses Morant’s 1.8, but once again, Conley’s most substantial advantage comes in BPM. His 4.4 mark in that metric towers over Morant’s relatively weak -0.2.
Again, Morant’s basic counting stats are a little more impressive than Conley’s, as he averaged 18.4 points and 7.3 assists in the 2020-21 season. However, as previously noted, Morant was the most important player on his team. Accordingly, his 26.6% usage rate was significantly higher than Conley’s 23.1.
Context matters. Morant’s Memphis Grizzlies were a vastly inferior club to Conley’s Utah Jazz last season, so it’s only rational that Morant would have a higher usage, and therefore, higher basic counting stats. It does not follow from that point that he’s a better NBA point guard at this young stage in his career than Conley.
Meanwhile, Conley bested Morant in every advanced metric. Simply put, it does follow from that point that Conley is better than Morant.
Ja Morant is a rising star in the NBA, and the franchise player for Conley’s longtime team. With his athletic gifts and floor vision, it’s very possible (if not likely) that Morant will complete a more decorated NBA career than Conley when it’s all said and done.
As it stands, it is not all said or done, and the numbers tell us that Conley deserves to be ranked ahead of Morant in any objective list.
Another younger, flashier point guard with (mostly) inferior advanced metrics, another point guard whose better than Mike Conley according to CBS Sports.
De’Aaron Fox, like Morant, has a bright future in the National Basketball Association. With a combination of blinding speed, rush hour ball-handling and advanced court vision, he is the life blood of the Sacramento Kings. Also like Morant, his importance to his team should not merit his ranking ahead of Utah Jazz veteran Mike Conley.
In fairness, Fox actually bested Conley in PER with a rating of 20.7. Conley still beat the young floor general in VORP and BPM: Fox’s marks in each category were 1.7 and 1.4 respectively.
We’re chalking Fox’s advantage in PER up to role. He is the first offensive option for the Sacramento Kings, and PER favors players who rack up counting stats, and does not account for variables like on/off value or team performance. In other words, Conley’s significant advantage in BPM (as a reminder, 4.4 to 1.4) should be taken as a more comprehensive measure of each player’s value, given the discrepancy in their roles in 2020-21.
There’s also the significant matter of Conley’s considerably more effective three-point shooting. Fox is only 23, but he’ll need to make significant improvements on the 32.2% accuracy he posted on 5.5 three-point attempts per game last season. Meanwhile, Conley functioned as an elite floor-spacer for the Utah Jazz, hitting 41.2% of his 6.6 attempts per contest.
Ultimately, fans of the Utah Jazz need not weep for Mike Conley. He’s used to being overlooked, and is probably more focused on the NBA Championship than he is on CBS Sports’ ranking of him among NBA point guards. Nonetheless, the media outlet absolutely under-ranked the veteran floor general by at least 3 placements in their most recent evaluation.