For NBA teams vying to hoist the prestigious Larry O’Brien trophy, the Big 3 model of building around three elite players has become a staple. Luckily for fans of the Utah Jazz, their squad boasts one of the best.
Several factors are significant when evaluating a team’s Big 3, but two emerge as the most important: how good are the players, and how well do they fit together? Ideally, any trio of elite NBA players features a balanced combination of shot creation, playmaking and defense. Three elite ball handlers who can’t shoot consistently will inevitably step on each other’s toes. Three elite shooters who can’t penetrate defenses will struggle to create the space each needs to utilize that elite shooting.
With these considerations in mind, how does the Utah Jazz‘s triumvirate of Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley Jr. stack up with the best Big 3s in the Association?
For reference, we’ve included each trio’s collective average Player Efficiency Rating (PER) from the 2020-21 season. With that in mind, we didn’t rank the trios based strictly on this measure. The criteria for the rankings is part objective (average PER) and part subjective (fit).
Here are the 5 best trios entering the 2021-22 NBA season, and how four of them compare to the Utah Jazz’s Big 3:
Phoenix Suns Big 3: Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Chris Paul
Combined average 2020-21 PER: 20.3
Fresh off of an NBA finals appearance, Phoenix Suns fans could be forgiven if they felt their placement on this list was unjustly low. They probably don’t love when writers who cover other teams bring the circumstances around their Finals run into question, either.
How unfortunate.
Undeniably, the Suns deserve credit for their Finals appearance, as any team who has ever appeared in the Finals does. Nonetheless, they equally undeniably benefitted from injuries to key players in every series along the way.
In the first round, they defeated a Los Angeles Lakers team featuring a somewhat compromised LeBron James alongside a heavily compromised Anthony Davis. In the following round, they swept a Denver Nuggets team without Jamal Murray, followed by a defeat of the Los Angeles Clippers sans Kawhi Leonard in the Conference finals.
Having outlined their playoffs fortunes, it bears mentioning that this Suns trio is very, very good. The question, however, remains: how do they compare to the Utah Jazz?
The Jazz earn a placement ahead of the Suns primarily due to their significant advantage in the big man matchup. Rudy Gobert’s PER of 23.5 from the 2020-21 season dwarfs Ayton’s 20.3 mark. Furthermore, Ayton’s Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 0.9 pails in comparison to Gobert’s 4.5.
Ayton, just 23, has ample time to catch up to Gobert, but he has ample ground to cover as well.
Meanwhile, the guard comparisons are a little closer. Paul grades out as better than Conley Jr., although the separation is less than casual observes may expect (21.4 PER vs 19.2). Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz’s star young off-guard graded out as superior to Phoenix’s, with Mitchell holding a PER advantage over Booker of 21.3 to 19.2
Using last year’s team success as a metric to compare these Big 3s would be oblivious to the role that luck plays in team success. The fit between each group is about equally snug, so Utah gets the nod with a higher combined average PER and a significantly better center.
Los Angeles Lakers Big 3: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook
Combined average 2020-21 PER: 21.9
Go ahead folks. Assemble the angry mob and ready the pitchforks. We completely understand.
This is, undoubtedly, one of the starriest Big 3s assembled in NBA history, with an astonishing five combined MVP awards (granted, four of those belong to Lebron James). The combined average PER of 21.9 is impressive enough, but especially so when considering that Russell Westbrook’s mark of 19.5 fell well short of his career average of 23.2, likely a consequence of adjusting his game to fit with Wizards star scoring guard Bradley Beal.
On a related note: Russell Westbrook will have to adjust his game to fit with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, too.
Remember that whole fit variable we discussed in the preamble? For the most part, we were talking about these Lakers. Last season, Russell Westbrook posted a Usage % of 30.2, which was actually his lowest mark since his sophomore year. Meanwhile, LeBron’s Usage % clocked in at an even higher 31.9%.
Can two players account for 62.1% of a team’s total usage? Especially when one (Westbrook, if you couldn’t guess) boasts 30.5% three point shooting over his career? Where does it all leave Anthony Davis?
The Utah Jazz carry no such fit concerns. Mike Conley Jr. is a mid-usage point guard who is equally effective on and off the ball, Gobert is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate whose primary offensive value comes from setting screens, and Mitchell is the clear-cut offensive alpha.
The Los Angeles Lakers may carry more star power than the Utah Jazz, but that doesn’t boost their Big 3 ahead of the Jazzmen in these rankings.
Utah Jazz Big 3: Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell
Combined average 2020-21 PER: 21.3
For some, it may feel wrong to see the J-Notes ranking the Utah Jazz’s Big 3 ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers. Their combined PER is a hair lower, not to mention their combined MVP count.
Such protests do not fall on deaf ears, however, this decision, as previously mentioned, is easily justified. Of course, it’s impossible to make head-to-head comparisons between these two trios, as the Lakers’ Big 3 have yet to play a minute together in the NBA.
That’s sort of the problem. The Utah Jazz’s threesome will be entering their third season together. The chemistry they’ve developed through learning each other’s tendencies is invaluable, and being weighed more heavily than combined MVP awards in this exercise.
Per CleaningtheGlass, the Utah Jazz, interestingly, held a negative Efficiency Differential (-5.9) with Donovan Mitchell on the floor. Meanwhile, both Rudy Gobert (14.6) and Mike Conley Jr. (11.9) posted substantially positive marks, each over the 95th percentile.
Interpret the numbers how you like, but just don’t conclude that Mitchell is a negative presence for this Utah Jazz team. He is their offensive engine, and likely their most important player. Considering that these 3 men frequently shared the floor, a safer interpretation concludes that Mitchell is prone to struggling without his elite rim protector and floor-spacing secondary playmaker.
That only points to the chemistry and floor balance between this group, which contributed significantly to their placement in these rankings.
Milwaukee Bucks Big 3: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton
Combined average 2020-21 PER: 22.4
The Bucks’ combined average 2020-21 PER, unsurprisingly, is lent a significant boost by the presence of Antetokoumpo. His 29.2 mark trailed only Joel Embiid across the Association. Still, the discrepancy between the former back-to-back MVP and his running mates can easily be viewed as an advantage for this trio, as they enter every game with a clear pecking order.
Giannis is the supernova, a two-way, one-man demolition derby who is impossible to game plan for. Middleton is the ideal offensive compliment, a hyper-efficient shooting wing who flirts with 20 points per game on the vaunted 50/40/90 shooting split on a season-to-season basis. On the opposite end, Holiday is an ideal lockdown defender to pair with Giannis, the ultimate free safety.
All told, the synergy between this unit is virtually untouchable, and was a massive reason for their 2020-21 NBA championship. In comparison to the Utah Jazz, the one component the Bucks’ trio arguably lacks is the elite rim protection of Rudy Gobert. Nonetheless, Antetokoumpo provides an ample amount of that himself, and all told, his Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) narrowly outweighs Gobert’s, at 2.6 to 2.5.
Let’s not overthink this one: the Milwaukee Bucks have Giannis Antetokoumpo and just won the NBA championship. Their Big 3 deserves placement over the Utah Jazz’s, and has a strong case for #1.
However, if we take full health as a given, the NBA hosts another three-headed monster that is just too talented to ignore.
Brooklyn Nets Big 3: Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kyrie Irving
Combined average 2020-21 PER: 25.2
Arguably, the combined PER speaks for itself. The discrepancy between the second-place Bucks and the fifth-place Suns is roughly the same as that between the Nets and the Bucks. In other words:
Holy (expletive), these guys are good.
The playoffs, of course, did not pan out the way the Brooklyn faithful had hoped, with Kyrie Irving being forced to miss the last 3 games of their series with the Bucks, and James Harden on one leg. Nonetheless, if these three guys can get healthy and stay healthy together, it requires a gifted artist’s imagination to picture them not stampeding their way to an NBA championship.
It’s a little difficult to get analytical about this group. We’re talking about three of the very most talented offensive players in NBA history, and that statement comes without an ounce of hyperbole. Their greatness gets in your face and shouts “I’m walking here!”.
If you were trying to make a case for the Utah Jazz’s triumvirate over Brooklyn’s, you would have to point to floor balance. Admittedly, both Gobert and Conley are lower usage offensive players than anyone in Brooklyn’s trio, and the borough representatives lack a player with Gobert’s defensive impact.
Yet, nobody in good conscience could rank them ahead of this Brooklyn Nets trio. Simply put, they have too much talent. Assuming better injury luck for them, they project as the best Big 3 in the NBA heading into the 2021-22 NBA season.