Utah Jazz: Was Mike Conley Jr. the best value signing in free agency?

Mike Conley Jr signed a three-year, $72.5 million dollar contract with the Utah Jazz this offseason. Was it the best deal for a point guard in all of NBA free agency? 

If you look up underrated in the dictionary, you won’t find a picture of Mike Conley Jr. He’s too underrated to have his picture in the dictionary.

Last season, Conley Jr. finally shed his longstanding best-active-player-to-never-be-an-All-Star label, securing a selection as a reserve in the league’s midseason dance. The Utah Jazz rewarded Conley Jr.’s standout year with a three-year, $72.5 million dollar contract this offseason.

That’s a great salary, but it pales in comparison to the sums awarded to Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry, the two most comparable point guards to Conley Jr. in this year’s free agency class. The Suns, fresh off an unexpected run to the NBA finals, secured Paul’s services into his age-40 season with a 4 year, $120-million-dollar pact. Meanwhile, long-time Raptor Kyle Lowry will be soaking up the Florida sun as a member of the Heat on a 3 year, $90-million-dollar contract.

Each man secured a deal with significantly more heft than Conley Jr.’s. It begs the question; are they actually significantly better? We compared each veteran floor general’s 2020-21 season using some key metrics, including Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and Win Shares (WS).

The thinking here is simple: by comparing the three most highly regarded point guards in this NBA offseason on these key metrics, we can more accurately assess the value of Conley Jr.’s contract. Here’s how each veteran floor general scored alongside one another.

PER

Chris Paul: 21.4

Mike Conley Jr.: 19.2

Kyle Lowry: 16.5

VORP

Chris Paul: 3.7

Mike Conley Jr.: 2.4

Kyle Lowry: 1.3

BPM

Chris Paul: 4.7

Mike Conley Jr.: 4.4

Kyle Lowry: 1.2

WS

Chris Paul: 9,2

Mike Conley Jr.: 6.1

Kyle Lowry: 4.1

What does it mean for Utah Jazz guard Mike Conley Jr.?

Interestingly, the three point guards find themselves ranked in the exact same order across four important metrics. If you put any stock in analytics, It’s pretty clear that in the 2020-21 NBA season, Chris Paul was better than Mike Conley Jr., and Conley Jr. was better than Kyle Lowry.

We chose to only look at this past season because each of these men are comfortably on the wrong side of 30. Realistically, there is minimal room for any of these guys to improve, and so using their most recent season as a baseline to project their production moving forward is reasonable. With that established: did the Utah Jazz award Mike Conley Jr. with the best value point guard contract in the NBA this offseason?

For thoroughness’ sake, we also compared him with Devonte’ Graham, who signed a significantly smaller 4-year, $47 million dollar deal in a sign-and-trade that landed him with the New Orleans Pelicans, on the same metrics.

Conley Jr. vs Graham

PER

Mike Conley Jr.: 19.2

Devonte’ Graham: 14.6

VORP

Mike Conley Jr.: 2.4

Devonte’ Graham: 1.0

BPM

Mike Conley Jr.: 4.4

Devonte’ Graham: 0.5

WS

Mike Conley Jr.: 6.1

Devonte’ Graham: 3.4

While the Utah Jazz will pay Conley Jr. significantly more than the Pelicans will pay Graham, the advanced metrics tell us that Conley Jr. has earned his more substantial keep. The fact that his commitment runs a year shorter only sweetens the pot.

Mike Conley Jr. will make, on average, about $6 million dollars less per year than Chris Paul, despite nipping at his heels on three of the four metrics we observed in the 2020-21 NBA season (Paul does enjoy a significant advantage in Win Shares). Meanwhile, he’ll make the same amount less than Kyle Lowry on an annual basis, despite having surpassed him in each of those key metrics last season.

Finally, he’ll be making considerably more than Devonte’ Graham because, according to the same metrics, he’s considerably better.

Value can be difficult to ascribe in regards to NBA contracts, but the math suggests that the contract the Utah Jazz agreed to with Mike Conley Jr. was a tremendously team-friendly deal. If fans of the team want to call it the best value contract awarded to a point guard this offseason, we are not here to stop them.