Projecting the Utah Jazz Championship Window: Part II

Utah Jazz Salaries

Gobert and Mitchell have the potential to earn monster extensions. Since Rudy has earned some All-NBA accolades, he can earn a “supermax ” contract, which basically means the Jazz can offer him more money than anyone else. Morten Jensen of the Forbes Magazine explains this well.

per Forbes.com :

"“By giving these lesser markets the ability to pay significantly more money to their own star free agents, the hope is players will choose to stay put and thus assist in putting a presentable product on the floor. This helps the league’s less marketable teams stay relevant and competitive, which in turn increases fan interest. Only, there’s a problem. While the supermax could help teams keep their star in the fold, the contract is of such significant value, the team that pays it could be looking at hefty luxury tax bills as a direct result of it, as the player they will be retaining with that contract, is in the prime of his career, suggesting the team is making a push towards winning.”"

Mitchell hasn’t played in the league long enough to qualify for the supermax, but he could still seek out a hefty extension in the fall of 2020, or even try his luck in restricted free agency in the summer of 2021. He will surely be worth a max contract even if he plateaus today and continues to lead a playoff team in scoring.

If both Gobert and Mitchell want to make the most lucrative money, then the Jazz are rapidly approaching the luxury tax threshold with just Mitchell and Gobert on board. Jazz brass has already expressed a willingness to pay the luxury tax if necessary, and more recently Gail Miller has made it clear the Jazz are trying to win a championship.

But generally, the luxury tax is something NBA teams try to avoid because of how restrictive it can be for management to add talent to the roster.

In short, if an NBA team goes into the luxury tax, they better be all-in and 1000 percent sure that their players can accomplish the feat. If we are being honest with ourselves, a core of Mitchell and Gobert as of today isn’t a favorite to win an NBA championship, and not worth the trouble of paying the luxury tax.

We haven’t even mentioned the rest of the team yet, and the Jazz’s future payroll is already looking like a sticky situation.

Conley can use his early termination option and become a free agent next summer, but he’d probably take a pay cut by doing so. If he doesn’t go that route (which is likely to happen) he will be a free agent in the summer of 2021. Assuming he wants to return to the Jazz, he probably won’t be making $34 million again, but he could command $17 million to $20 million a year.

Bojan Bogdanovic is on a four-year deal that increases in salary over time. The salary cap also usually bumps up a little every year, so this shouldn’t be a big deal as long as Bogey doesn’t take a hard decline.

Royce O’Neale can also earn an extension. Since he is undrafted, this extension can happen any time during the season. Surely O’Neale will want to get a raise, as he has been one of the better 3-and-D guys in the league getting paid like a bench warmer. The price range for these valuable 3-and-D guys is around $9 million to $15 million a year, and depending on how far he swings towards the higher end of that spectrum, that could push the Jazz into the luxury tax the season after next

Basically, the Jazz’s title window depends on their players’ willingness to sacrifice money for winning. Rudy and Donovan will get paid, but they don’t have to milk every last dollar possible. Additionally, it’s up to the supporting cast guys like Conley and O’Neale to sign team-friendly deals that give Justin Zanik the ability to add one more guy if that’s what the team needs.

Predicting the future is nearly impossible, especially in the NBA where players seem on the go more so than in the past. Yet, I am going to attempt it here in this next slide.