Projecting the Utah Jazz Championship Window Part I

Rising and Peaking Jazzmen

In theory, Rudy Gobert should be in the heart of his prime at age 27, but because of his long arms he can play above the rim on both sides of the floor without exerting much athleticism. If The Stifle Tower stays healthy, he can maintain his All-NBA caliber play for the next eight-plus years, effectively keeping Utah’s title window open as long as he remains in a Jazz uniform. In a lot of ways, this reminds me of how Tim Duncan maintained elite defensive skills even at age 38, earning himself honors on the All-Defensive 2nd Team.

Meanwhile other rim protectors such as Tyson Chandler exit their prime before their 34th birthday because they rely on their athleticism to catch lobs and swat shots. In Chandler’s case, injuries took him out of his prime when he was about 33. Let’s hope that the twilight of Gobert’s career plays out more like Tim Duncan’s than Chandler’s.

Gilbert Arenas, Ben Gordon, Jason Richardson, and Eric Gordon. What do all these players have in common?

For one they were all exciting guards to watch with electric scoring potential, but none of them were able to fulfill (or sustain) their full potential in the NBA. Between injuries and a lack of dimension to their games, both Gordons and Richardson never lived up to their star potential. Arenas had three consecutive All-Star and All-NBA campaigns in a row, but injuries and off-court troubles robbed him of some more exhilarating years. This guy looked like the second coming of Allen Iverson the way he could put the ball in the bucket.

Donovan Mitchell is only in his third season, and his game depends heavily on his athleticism. The former slam dunk champion has to develop greater footwork and shooting prowess not only to become a true star, but to extend his prime years into his 30s. Otherwise he puts himself at risk for becoming just a microwave scorer off the bench later in his career.

Fortunately, Mitchell has already been working on other dimensions of his game. This summer he took notable steps towards becoming a better playmaker (led Team USA in assists) and defender (played solid defense in five preseason games). The best-case scenario with Mitchell (assuming he stays a Jazzman) is he keeps Utah’s championship window open for the next decade.

Royce O’Neale is yet another Jazzman that came into the league as an older rookie at age 25. He plays great defense and doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective on offense. Assuming that O’Neale masters his defensive fundamentals and footwork, he can sustain his good defense even as his lateral quickness slows down. Tony Allen was able to earn a place on the All-Defensive second team at age 35, who’s to say that O’Neale can’t do the same?

Ah, finally… Dante Exum. Everybody already knows what I’m going to say, but I’ll say it anyway.

If you’re still waiting for Exum to develop into an All-Star player then you’re probably wasting your time. The most critical years for a player to develop his potential is ages 19-24, which Exum was unable to fully participate in due to injuries. The good news is that Exum is still an NBA player and has two distinct skills that make him playable: driving to the hole and creating offense, and his excellent perimeter defense.

Assuming he can stay off the injury report, Dante will make a nice role player that gets 20-25 minutes a game, even for a championship team. His ceiling may be lower than we all hoped but he still has a place in this league and on the Jazz roster.

Now on to another critical, but often overlooked element of preserving a title window…