Projecting the Utah Jazz Championship Window Part I

Aging Jazzmen

Most NBA players hit their athletic prime in their mid-20s and develop their game enough to peak around age 27. That is the most common age when NBA players are selected to the All-NBA team according to hoopshype.com.

Then, depending on the style of the players’ game, they either maintain their prime into their 30s or start to decline steeply. There are only two active players left from the 2003 draft class: LeBron James and Kyle Korver. The former because of his superhuman gift to read the game and adapt, and the latter because of his outside shooting that doesn’t fade with age.

Mike Conley, as earlier mentioned, is 32 years old, and most starting point guards start to decline around age 30.

Take Chris Paul for example:

He earned nine consecutive All-Star appearances in the heart of his prime, but in 2016-17 (age 31) missed out on the festivities and hasn’t returned. Since 2016-17 he has consistently missed 20 games every season. Typically he played 35 to 36 minutes a game for his whole career, but since he’s turned 30 years old that average has dropped down to around 31-32 minutes a game. Additionally, Paul has progressively changed his game to shoot more from the outside and attack the basket less.

The reason he has stayed elite well into his 30s is because of his craftiness and I.Q. of the game. Without some sort of adaptation most NBA players fall off a steep cliff in their 30s.

A prime example of this is Devin Harris.

The former All-Star started declining in his late 20s. Since his game relied majorly on his quick speed, his peak was short-lived. After four consecutive seasons of over 30 minutes a game, Harris’ minutes slowly started dipping starting at age 28. Because of his failure to adapt to old age, his role diminished from a top 2 scoring option to a role player in just five short years.

Fortunately for the Jazz, Conley had a career year in 2018-19 and doesn’t have to rely solely on speed and agility. Assuming he stays healthy, I can see Conley maintaining borderline All-Star play through the length of his contract (two years) and still being a solid starter after that.

Joe Ingles came into the league as an older rookie at age 27. But under careful development from coach Quin Snyder, Slo’ Mo’ Joe has improved nearly every year he’s been in the league. With a game built around passing and three-point shooting, Ingles should be able to keep it up through the three years remaining on his recently extended contract and remain a solid role player up to his late 30s. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Manu Ginobli, who played 20 minutes a game with the San Antonio Spurs at age 40 before retiring.

Bojan Bogdanovic also came into the league as an older rookie at age 25. He too developed his game little by little, and had a great season with the Pacers last year scoring 18 points per game. Though his athleticism is definitely waning, he never scored all those points from an athleticism advantage in the first place. Bogey has good footwork and dribbling skills for his size and doesn’t need to turn on the jets to get a bucket. He should still be able to score by the end of his four-year contract, although his defense could be questionable by then.

Jeff Green is 33 years old and has only been offered the veterans minimum deal in free agency despite deserving better. Because he has consistently outplayed his contract value, I’m not sure Green will stay with the Jazz beyond this season. Assuming Uncle Jeff puts together a nice year on a contending team like the Jazz, this could be his last chance to get a mid-level deal.

However, he specifically chose to sign with the Utah Jazz to be teammates with Mike Conley and compete for a championship, so hopefully he is back with a reasonable contract next season. He still has decent scoring chops and good athleticism when carefully timed, and I think he still has two to three years left in the tank.

Ed Davis is 30 and should be on the tail end of his prime. Since he’s a rebounding specialist I’d bet he declines with age unless he adds a notable scoring or passing repertoire to his game. Not sure how effective he’ll be in three years, or if he’ll even be a Jazzman by then.

Now we will take a look at some of the younger players on the Jazz.